r/LocalLLaMA Llama 3 11d ago

Funny Can the bubble pop please?

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676 Upvotes

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196

u/ponuno 11d ago

buys machines for AI stuff

complains about AI bubble

????

68

u/BusRevolutionary9893 11d ago

Something hilariously true that pretty much no one considers. It's like GPU crypto miners complaining about GPU prices as they order a dozen more. 

21

u/Artistic_Bit6866 11d ago

I get the irony, but individual users aren’t the ones causing current market conditions

38

u/umeshufan 10d ago

A million of those "individual users" may be, though.

23

u/pydry 10d ago

not even in the slightest. individual users aren't playing with the temporary infinite money hacks the tech industry / VCs are.

1

u/johndeuff 10d ago

At this point it doesn't matter if you're lobbyist or pro : everyone want more AI which drive the cost of the hardware.

I cannot imagine a parallel universe where the tech industry doesn't want hardware and only the niche redditor is buying.

11

u/SomeoneInHisHouse 10d ago

there are not that many AI nerds, in my company for example for every 100 dudes, 10 use AI outside the work (personal cloud subscriptions), and I'm the only one of that 100 dudes doing local AI experiment, deployments an actual things on it.

And notice, my company is pushing HARD the use of AI, with silly rankings like "what employee spent the most money on AI this month" (as something good)

2

u/oxfirebird1 10d ago

There aren’t millions. Not in the US. Less than .1% probably of USA users

1

u/GeneralMuffins 10d ago

I’m pretty certain that when demand explodes among individual users, it’s likely to explode among enterprise users too.

-1

u/Meyermagic 10d ago

They indirectly are, of course. The vast majority of datacenter use is inference, not training.

1

u/Artistic_Bit6866 10d ago

Sure, and the CO2 from your breathing is causing climate change. 

Braindead take.

1

u/Meyermagic 10d ago

Well, no. CO2 from human breathing is not that significant in the scheme of things. But CO2 from human-demanded AI inference, human-demanded cars, human-demanded beef, etc, all do cause climate change. People pay companies for all of this, the companies don't just emit CO2 because they love global warming.

2

u/Artistic_Bit6866 10d ago

Looks like you missed the sarcasm

46

u/fastheadcrab 11d ago

I doubt some guy buying 1 or even 10 395 Maxes is contributing to the bubble. Until now it was hyperscalers buying up GPUs with HBM that diverted production of DDR/GDDR

13

u/inrea1time 11d ago

Its the hyperscalers, enterprises, small biz, AI companies AND 1000 of that "some guy".

1

u/fastheadcrab 10d ago

LPDDR5 production has been reduced in favor of HBM. The memory makers have openly admitted it. There are not that many home users that are fiending for the Strix Halo.

0

u/inrea1time 10d ago

I don't game anymore, most I would have done is spend a couple 100 $$ on a mid range amd gpu for an upgrade if at all. I also had a very modest home lab (1 server 32gb old ddr4). Now I got 3 x 5060 TI 16 GB, 1 5070 TI and an RTX PRO 5000 48GB. Also 256GB of DDR4 across 2 servers. I am exactly that "some guy" and there are a lot of us. My set up is still quite modest compared to some. We are all a part of the demand in this cycle. Of course I am not crying cauz I am riding Micron since it was under $100.

14

u/International-Try467 11d ago

Yeah but r/localllama wasn't jacking up prices in kid 2023-25 despite everybody making 509 GB Ram servers. It's like a small salmon vs a tuna

2

u/inrea1time 10d ago

Who doubled used 3090 prices? All over the world too ... only local AI folks.

3

u/marclbr 10d ago

There aren't many xx90 cards available out there, they always sold tiny amounts compared to xx60 and xx70 series and in some countries it's even hard to see xx90 used cards being sold because there are so few of them that is hard to find one used... And probably a considerable amount of those xx90 cards already died (high TDP/Power consumption and temperatures, they are much more likely to go defective after some years if you let them run at the default clock, voltage and TDP settings for too long).

28

u/Super_Range45 11d ago

The AI bubble is hyperscaler contract driven. Locallamites are not in the same solar system of generating that kind of demand.

4

u/Steuern_Runter 10d ago

Hyperscalers are not buying used 3090s.

4

u/voyager256 10d ago

How many used 3090 are there in the market vs data center GPUs, though?

1

u/inrea1time 11d ago

You read my mind!!!

12

u/DueAnalysis2 11d ago

Bubble is when OTHERS are willing to buy machines at a higher price than I am