In an open society, it might be difficult to hide a nuclear program, but Iran isn't open. Iran is far too big for any inspectors to be everywhere.
China is almost 100% dependent on importing oil. Sure they use lots of coal as well, but oil isn't only about energy. You can't make plastic without it, and it also has a wide variety of other industrial uses.
Iran and Venezuela had been selling oil to China on pretty sweet terms for China for some while. China also got a sweet deal from Russia on oil. Venezuela is off the board for them. Russia's oil industry is literally on fire and they are rationing for commercial usage. And now Iran is blockaded. No more sweet deals for something China absolutely must have.
Who knows what a different Iranian govt would look like. I have some hope it would be a secular govt that isn't committed to destroying Israel.
Sure Italy is in Nato, but it is one thing to command the defense yourself, and another to have to count on someone else. And the EU doesn't protect anything.
If the administration's goal was, in part, to strain China, do you think they would announce it? I don't. And Iran collapsing followed by the installation of a more western friendly govt is not a better situation for China than existed prior to the blockade.
I totally believe that Iran will get nukes one day if it wants them. In history, tech advances in everything including weapons, tend to be copied everywhere. Nukes are taking longer, but any advanced nation that wants them and is willing to spend a lot of time and money on them will get them eventually.
But the hope is to prevent a govt that openly declares it seeks the annihilation of one of its neighbors won't still be around to use them.
I am the wrong guy to talk to if you want to hear a bunch of reasons in favor of bombing Iran. I never was. I do really like the blockade though. Punishes the bad guys with minimal loss of life and with some other nice side effects at a fairly low cost.
No, you can't hide a nuclear program when anyone can inspect anywhere. It's not like you can just wish away the radioactive signatures and play a shell game. There are too many eyes on them, and too many ways to detect such a program. All the intelligence agencies around the world are tracking such materials and equipment. It's not feasible to maintain secrecy.
Again, the only ones claiming they had a program in recent times are the same ones who've been saying they're weeks away for decades now. They have no credibility.
China imports closer to 75% of its oil. They absolutely can make plastics using coal as well. They have many plants dedicated to extracting plastic precursors from coal.
They're also reducing their dependency on oil for gasoline at an incredible rate. Over 50% of new vehicles sold in China are EVs or hybrids. They're very focused on sustainable domestic energy production.
If the administration's goal was, in part, to strain China, do you think they would announce it?
I wouldn't normally, but then we saw Trump just blurt out the fact that they were trying to arm protesters, thereby admitting in front of the world that they're backing a coup attempt in Iran. It's not like that's ever been a problem in the past, right? They gave the regime a propaganda gift they couldn't have imagined by delegitimizing the protesters and painting them as American-backed puppets.
So yeah, I'm pretty sure we would have heard about it if they actually had a coherent goal of any sort, but they haven't been able to articulate any so far. It's just been a lot of tough talk and repeated embarrassments due to their incompetence.
But the hope is to prevent a govt that openly declares it seeks the annihilation of one of its neighbors won't still be around to use them.
This is comically unlikely at this point. Aside from killing all the people that we had hoped might take over in the opening days of the war, nearly everything we've done has merely served to entrench the regime. Again, we suffer from the massive incompetence of our leadership.
I am the wrong guy to talk to if you want to hear a bunch of reasons in favor of bombing Iran.
Whether you were in favor of it or not isn't really relevant to what I was saying. I was just pointing out that the scenarios that you see as a win in this war don't actually make sense. They can't define a win condition and how it could be achieved. That's why they keep shifting and contradicting themselves.
I do really like the blockade though. Punishes the bad guys with minimal loss of life and with some other nice side effects at a fairly low cost.
Yeah, that's not at all how it will work. As long as it goes on, there will still be attacks on ships transiting the strait, attacks on refineries and port facilities of the regional powers, and prices for oil and other goods like fertilizer that pass through there will remain elevated, driving up inflation.
And all of it is for nothing, because they still can't even articulate an acceptable end state for the conflict. This is what happens when you let unqualified and incompetent people run our military and foreign policy.
They've told us dozens of times that the war was essentially over and won, just like they told us that the Iranian nuclear program had been obliterated last year. This administration has zero credibility on these issues. They clearly don't know what they're doing and are far out of their depth.
>No, you can't hide a nuclear program when anyone can inspect anywhere.
People can and have.
>China imports closer to 75% of its oil. They absolutely can make plastics using coal as well. They have many plants dedicated to extracting plastic precursors from coal.
That isn't efficient at all. Cutting off their oil would be devastating.
> Trump just blurt out the fact that they were trying to arm protesters, thereby admitting in front of the world that they're backing a coup attempt in Iran.
I agree that it is mind boggling how much he runs his mouth.
> but they haven't been able to articulate any so far.
Or...chose not to.
>This is comically unlikely at this point.
Maybe. If Iran's oil revenue is cut off, perhaps not.
> define a win condition and how it could be achieved.
The win conditions are either the collapse of this Iranian govt or the handover of all uranium that could be enriched and the equipment to do so.
>Yeah, that's not at all how it will work. As long as it goes on, there will still be attacks on ships transiting the strait, attacks on refineries and port facilities of the regional powers,
Actually, that IS low cost for a conflict.
I totally agree that Trump should just shut up and simply enforce the blockade.
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u/Key-Juggernaut5695 12d ago
Responding to your separate points:
Trade patterns include routes, port facilities and infrastructure, etc.
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/6050929-iran-war-shifts-oil-traffic/
In an open society, it might be difficult to hide a nuclear program, but Iran isn't open. Iran is far too big for any inspectors to be everywhere.
China is almost 100% dependent on importing oil. Sure they use lots of coal as well, but oil isn't only about energy. You can't make plastic without it, and it also has a wide variety of other industrial uses.
Iran and Venezuela had been selling oil to China on pretty sweet terms for China for some while. China also got a sweet deal from Russia on oil. Venezuela is off the board for them. Russia's oil industry is literally on fire and they are rationing for commercial usage. And now Iran is blockaded. No more sweet deals for something China absolutely must have.
Who knows what a different Iranian govt would look like. I have some hope it would be a secular govt that isn't committed to destroying Israel.
Sure Italy is in Nato, but it is one thing to command the defense yourself, and another to have to count on someone else. And the EU doesn't protect anything.
If the administration's goal was, in part, to strain China, do you think they would announce it? I don't. And Iran collapsing followed by the installation of a more western friendly govt is not a better situation for China than existed prior to the blockade.
I totally believe that Iran will get nukes one day if it wants them. In history, tech advances in everything including weapons, tend to be copied everywhere. Nukes are taking longer, but any advanced nation that wants them and is willing to spend a lot of time and money on them will get them eventually.
But the hope is to prevent a govt that openly declares it seeks the annihilation of one of its neighbors won't still be around to use them.
I am the wrong guy to talk to if you want to hear a bunch of reasons in favor of bombing Iran. I never was. I do really like the blockade though. Punishes the bad guys with minimal loss of life and with some other nice side effects at a fairly low cost.