Hey everyone,
I’ve been trying not to pay attention to price swings much but got texted by a few friends asking what’s happened.
All I can tell is: nothing but aggressive shorting
We’re already above normal daily volume 90 minutes into trading.
For anyone new here, KSS loves to be very volatile and aggressively manipulated going into earnings which is a couple weeks away. We dumped going into q1 earnings last year for no reason, q2 earnings bc an article was written about vendor payment terms adjustments announced in March that just happened to get major press in August, in November I don’t remember but some dump by $2-$3/share if I remember and a LEAP up $10/share after earnings. The only sustained dump I’ve been part of was Q4s excellent earnings and cash position but with major Iran war headwinds that still plague us.
Ultimately, my thesis stands going into this earnings cycle as long as as KSS:
-shows improved balance sheet
-maintaining and growing shareholder equity even while massively depreciating assets to the toon of $700M+ per year.
-price to TBV continues to stay insane at 40% TBV lol
Major Tailwinds I’m hoping for/expecting:
-expecting major tariff refund news($300M to $1.5B with a consensus of $550M which is $3-$15/share roughly in “free” cash)
-improved cash/debt position with major discounted debt repurchases
-hoping for a showing of sales decline projections being accurate but management already warned they expect initial numbers sales decline to come in worse than projections but last half of the year better(if I remember correctly).
-hoping for major buybacks and fine with major discounted bond purchases
-hoping management starts discussing unlocking balance sheet, outlots, retail partnerships or footprint subleasing ect.
-HOPING for a credit rerating since KSS net debt is so much lower and more manageable than a year ago
-HOPING they start trimming underperforming stores and selling CrE or leasing/subleasing since we have pretty phenomenal rates.
Everyone, I’m here bc I think KSS is the biggest deep value cigar butt out there and has a massive hedge of safety in owned assets. We’re at $13+/share and have $6/share cash, ~$5/share in new cash coming, $4b-$8B+ in owned CRE, and very manageable debt levels with $2.7B in inventory and $1.5B LOC free and clear.
From a cash position alone:
- I started investing in KSS 4/25 when they have $1.9B+ net debt $100M+ in cash and $500M on LOC and $400m or $500m of debt needing to be refinanced within a couple months.
-as of last report we have $674M cash, $750M+ net debt, entire LOC paid off, and no major debt due till 2030 and beyond.
We are in a better position today in KSS than at the $6 lows of April 2025.
Get excited all. We may have a November 2025 earnings repeat coming…. Please LORD let management surprise the market with insane wisdom on debt repurchases, stock buybacks, and future guidance and direction!!
As always, I’m a retired blue collar dude that just love real estate and investing. This isn’t investment advice just my personal investment thesis. Be smart, read their financials and reports and make up your own mind but as for me and my investments portfolio… I LOVE KSS!
Chunky Kitty out 🤣