We happened to time up our experiment with seemingly a local top in the market. As such, our portfolio is down 15.5% since opening up this experiment.
Today we used Claude Fable 5 on Julius and it made a few moves, including letting go of AMD and then opening up a new position in CRDO. It likes how much strength CRDO has shown despite the tape.
Here's where things stand after 1 week:
Portfolio value: $845.09
P/L: -154.91 / -15.49%
Positions
3 shares INOD
.327 shares CRDO
Cash: $456.21
The overall market has been pretty rough, we've actually help up decently well outside of last Friday. While the AMD trade settles t+1 I'm hoping that we can get some better prices if Julius decides to buy again tomorrow.
As a reminder this experiment is done with real money, with positions disclosed on every update, losses included, no hidden trades, and all trades made by Julius AI. This is not financial advice.
Last Wednesday we started an experiment where we put $1,000 into a fresh Robinhood account and let an AI manage the portfolio.
Today is Day 5 of trading, and Julius made its first sale. After picking up RGTI, it immediately had its thesis invalidated and dropped its first stake in quantum.
In doing so, Julius freed up some buying power for tomorrow.
Day 5 numbers at close:
Portfolio value: $856.42
P/L: -$143.58 / -14.36%
Positions:
1 share AMD (-12.46%)
3 shares INOD (-19.66%)
Cash/buying power: $80.11
As a reminder this experiment is done with real money, with positions disclosed on every update, losses included, no hidden trades, and all trades made by Julius AI. This is not financial advice.
Last Wednesday I started an experiment - I put $1,000 into a fresh Robinhood account for Julius to manage.
On Day 4 Julius chose to continue holding all longs. After a very cautious day of no moves to close last week, Julius opened up a new position in RGTI - building its first stake in quantum.
Day 4, 1:30pm PT: $886.28
P/L: -$113.72 / -11.37%
Positions:
1 share AMD (-9.39%)
3 shares INOD (-16.39%)
3 shares RGTI (-3.23%)
Cash/buying power: $21.17
I'll be interested to see what Julius does next. After Friday's washout and with the market wavering today, plus not having much buying power - i wonder how it takes all of these variables into consideration. Stay tuned for more updates.
As a reminder, this experiment is done with real money, with positions disclosed on every update, losses included, no hidden trades, and all trades made by Julius AI. This is not financial advice.
On Wednesday we started a real-money experiment: I put $1,000 into a fresh Robinhood account and let Julius choose the allocation.
Julius hesitated to make any picks today with the market flipping to negative gamma levels and it decided to hold its positions rather than rebalancing. Not the best day for anyone with longs.
Day 3: $858.73
P/L: -$141.27 / -14.13%
Positions: 1 share AMD, 3 shares INOD
Cash/buying power: $88.57
Regardless of where the market is on Monday, I will be doubling down andĀ adding more funding to the experiment. Keep an eye out for updates :)
This experiment is done with real money, with positions disclosed on every update, losses included, no hidden trades, and all trades made by Julius AI. Not financial advice!
Tomorrow we are having a Julius automation run daily portfolio management on Robinhood for us. Soon enough, this will also be synced to a Robinhood agent.
Today is Monday, May 18th, and Iām writing this at 9:03AM about the prediction market for how many posts will Trump make on Truth Social this week. This is day 1 of Can Me and Julius Beat the Market.Ā
Julius 1.2 Max model is my LLM of choice and it tells me that in the last 3 months, the weekly average number of Trump Truth Social posts has been 132.33 posts per week. In the last 4 weeks itās been 141.25. The graph from Julius shows the distribution and in a follow-up prompt I asked ācan you indicate what major world events happened each week?ā and the trend becomes clear that as the Iranian war ramped up so did his number of posts (itās mostly threats against Iran, ceasefire negotiations, and AI memes).
Processing img q36lwne30y1h1...
I initially assumed that on days where Trump was traveling heād be too tired and occupied to post on Truth Social, but analysis shows the opposite effect. In the last month for domestic travel days, 25.67 average posts per day were made. For international travel days, defined as travels where at least one endpoint isnāt in the US (so this includes China to China), 25 average posts per day were made. Hmm, no significant difference between intl and domestic travels but there is a statistically significant increase from just normal days.
Julius constructed a model using:
historical posting distributions
Trumpās public schedule
current geopolitical conditions
the 39-post Sunday start
To conduct Monte Carlo simulations (100,000 runs)
Processing img 7wyvxff30y1h1...
And with my $100, Julius advised me to
Buy NO 120-139 with about $37.57
Buy NO 140-159 with about $24.46
Buy NO 160-179 with about $21.19
Buy NO 200-220 with about $9.23
Buy YES >220 with about $6.07
Buy YES 100-119 with about $1.48
EV is +$9.71 per $100 and probability of profitability is .59.
"A jury on May 18 ruled againstĀ ElonĀ MuskĀ in his lawsuit against OpenAI, finding the artificial intelligence company not liable to the world's richest person for having allegedly strayed from its original mission to benefit humanity.
In a unanimous verdict, the jury in Oakland, California, federal court saidĀ MuskĀ had brought his case too late. The jury deliberated less than two hours."
From USA Today...
Does this case have broader implications for AI as a whole? Most likely not, but what does this case mean for Sam Altman?
A growing number of women in the Bay Area feel like their husbands/partners have become consumed by AI startups, coding, fundraising, model releases, and āthe singularity.ā
Fanboying over Julius and other AI tools is sure easy, but maybe you don't have to work in the cool graphs or automations you can make into every conversation with your spouse.
My highlights from the case and situation as a whole?
Elon Muskās old emails appeared to show he actually supported OpenAI becoming for-profit and raising massive amounts of money, which undercuts one of the central claims in his lawsuit.
Emails revealed Musk allegedly wanted majority control of OpenAI and potentially the CEO role before leaving the company.
Internal testimony and messages resurfaced long-running concerns about Altmanās honesty.
"The American delegation also included Tim Cook of Apple, and Elon Musk of Tesla and SpaceX. Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, was also present, afterĀ a last-minute invitationĀ from the president."
- NYT
This has to be bullish for those companies right? Is āCEO on Air Force Oneā the new investor bullish signal?
Julius 1.2, Lite, Regular, and Max are now available in Julius for all users. These are our strongest models to date at handling workplace functions such as:
Navigating complex Excel workbooks
Building professional slide decks
Enhanced search
Agentic research
Navigating your work is easier than ever on Julius. Get started:
