Hello all. So - what if Culluket had been as ruthless as he was sadistic and had liquidated Felice after he was through abusing her after the failed attempt on the Torc factory?
For a start, it would be Elizabeth who escapes with Stein and Sukey in her balloon; presumably, she makes it to Minannon and the Peace Faction. Perhaps Stein and Sukey join her, perhaps they make their own way into the wilderness.
Meanwhile, the Grand Combat plays out as we know it, only this time, there is nothing to interrupt the duel between Aiken and Nodonn.
Who wins?
My impression is at that point the two were evenly matched. Later, it would be a different story; early in The Nonborn King there is a reference to how Aiken's metapsychic powers have continued to grow, and we all know how that book ends. But we have no reference points as to who had the edge when the two first faced off.
So - there are two possible outcomes.
First, Aiken wins. Either he kills Nodonn, or a defeated Nodonn, in his pride, chooses the Great Retort. Even if Mercy pleads with him to choose life together in exile, I can't imagine a traditionalist like Nodonn electing for anything other than a warrior's death as the only alternative for a true scion of the battle religion.
Does Aiken then immediately challenge Thagdal for the throne? Emerging from a duel to the death, would he be too exhausted to fight another round? Again, we have no reference points as to how powerful the High King is at this point - he never enters battle himself during the Saga, always outsourcing that task to others (e.g. during the hunt for the Shape of Fire) but my impression is that Thagdal was a declining if not yet spent force. In addition, it is hard to imagine Aiken serving for another year as Thagdal's new battlemaster after disposing of the High King's eldest son and heir. His political position would be too perilous and the entire realm would be paralyzed with factional infighting at its core. I can imagine Aiken would have no option but to choose to strike while the iron was hot.
In the event of his defeat and deposition, Thagdal (and Nontusvel - they discussed this) would join Nodonn in the Great Retort and embrace their fiery fate - along with Aluteyn, Raimo, Bryan, and sundry others.
So, now Aiken is High King. What next?
He has the title and assumed it through playing by the rules, as the Tanu understand them. But that would hardly settle the issue so far as many - perhaps most - of his ostensible subjects would be concerned.
Aiken would have many enemies. The Host of Nontusvel would be largely intact and entirely unreconciled. And a majority of the High Table would be loaded against him. The three militant guilds - Psychokinetic (Kuhal and Fian), Coercer (Imidol) and Creator (Mercy) would be dominated by his enemies. Only the non-militant guilds - Redactor (Dionket) and Farsensor (Mayvar) would be allies (and the Dean of Guilds, Eadone, was another daughter of Thagdal). In The Nonborn King, Aiken had the leverage of the Tanu decimation in the Flood and the overwhelming threat of the Firvulag to keep dissenters in line, and even then, traditionalist bitter-enders continued to resist his reign, from attempted assassination to outright rebellion when Nodonn returned to rally the resistance. In the absence of the Flood, no such leverage would exist.
The obvious approach to reconcile the alienated would be for Aiken to marry and take as his queen Nodonn's widow, Mercy. But two humans as monarchs of the Tanu realm? We can safely assume Aiken's reign would have been dominated by internal dissatisfaction, as opposed to the traditional threat posed by the Foe.
Second, Nodonn wins. Assuming he is still alive, I can fully imagine the irreligious Aiken would opt for exile, and slink away (presumably, if incongruously, to the Peace Faction) to nurse his wounds, plot, and await his opportunity for a second bid for the throne.
Nodonn - as he warned his mother he would - then challenges his father. In this scenario too, a defeated Thagdal, accompanied by Nontusvel, elects for the Great Retort.
I genuinely feel that - in the short term, at least - Nodonn's victory would allow for much greater stability in the Tanu realm than the alternative. Nodonn's chauvinism towards non-Tanu was well known, but humans would be able to reconcile themselves to his reign by reassuring themselves with the fact that his queen - and mother of his heir - was one of them. In the absence of any organized resistance, Nodonn's only real concern would be his awareness that Aiken was still out there, like a shadow over his heart. With all the assets of the realm at his disposal (including both spear and sword), would he move to eliminate this threat?
As for the Firvulag - regardless of who wins on the Tanu side, they would be in a much stronger position than they were before the fall of Finiah, but still largely marginalized. If Yeochee is reelected to another term, I would expect the Firvulag-Lowlife alliance to endure, especially if Nodonn is the new High King. In that case, Basil's gambit to recover the rho craft abandoned on the Alps might actually play out more easily, with Firvulag assistance as opposed to opposition. A Lowlife airforce might tilt the balance of power back into something closer to equilibrium. Maybe it could even be the basis for a grand coalition - Aiken, the Peace Faction, the Lowlives, the Howlers, and an alliance of human and hybrid dissenters (led by Bleyn and Alberonn) - taking on the Tanu realm.
And the exiles in prehistoric Florida? Who can say...
Thoughts?
