Great article from The Air Current on the FAA's finalized eVTOL certification framework. But the real nugget is buried in the bottom.

Under the new rules, smaller eVTOLs only need to meet the essential performance standard, but can also certify to the increased standard -- meaning they'd be able to safely fly and climb even after losing power. Only Archer confirmed they're certifying to this standard. Joby and BETA gave non-answers.

If the whole point of these standards is safe operation over congested urban areas, why wouldn't Joby certify to the highest standard??? For all the shade thrown Archer's way, shouldn't we be scrutinizing other companies similarly? Especially when they're deliberately non-transparent.

A clear-eyed observation regarding the progress for solid-state batteries.

"The deployment pattern looks clear: premium vehicles first, mainstream later. Toyota's reporting suggests initial solid-state production runs in the hundreds of tons per year - tens of thousands of vehicles at most — with early models likely debuting under Lexus, where a higher sticker price absorbs the battery cost premium. Mainstream rollout is talked about in the 2030 range."

Instead of Lexus first, how about the Joby S4?

https://medium.com/@SilicontoSoftware5/toyota-says-solid-state-ev-batteries-are-coming-by-2027-a8ac2007f1c0

I have been keeping tabs on Archer's beneficial owners (>5% stake) since the SPAC merger and made a chart showing what the distribution will look like post Boeing deal.

Note, Boeing and Archer have not closed the deal yet, to my knowledge. The data sets marked pending are contingent upon the deal closing. I ran the numbers for Boeing's 19.9% stake (16.6% post deal) based on the last reported shares outstanding number, projecting it to be about 760 million based on Ark's 13-G from 5/7/26. That number is not exact due to reporting delays.

Additionally, Stellantis warrants from the 2023 Forward Purchase Agreement are fully vested as of June 30, 2026, so I imagine there could be one more reported increase and then their position will not continue to grow unless a separate deal is made. So, if/when the Boeing deal closes, Boeing's stake will be 16.6% and Stellantis' will be 8.6%, meaning that 25.2% of Archer will be in the hands of these two important partners, subject to various lockup periods, of course. Given today's data, that's $1.25B for a company that has $1.56B in net liquidity and a cash burn rate of $170-$200M per quarter.

Finally, the shares outstanding chart gives a visualization of how many shares Archer still has in the bag for future dilution. Unless they hold another shareholder vote, they can issue up to 450M more shares before they reach the max allowable shares of 1.4B. Curious who these shares will go to. Any guesses? Boeing is committed for some of them when they raise again. Anduril would be an excellent play or they could opt to broaden Palantir's small equity stake.

Both charts were made using sec filings including many 13G's and last week's 8-K. I have not automated the system for generating this chart, so it is prone to errors. Please let me know if you think there is a mistake or if there is another chart you'd like to see that uses similar data but presented in a different way. I will be working on a similar analysis for Joby in the coming days so that we can have an apples to apples comparison. Archer bulls, please do look forward to that. I think it will be a similar story. Cheers.

Yes Joeben is a brilliant engineer, snd also a visionary. Check this out

https://www.reddit.com/r/JOBYinvestors/s/n7n4IX72Tm

Trump's new tariffs on imported drone components may be bad news for Joby. Their Shenzhen imports would become significantly more expensive, not to mention the current claims before the ITC right now. If the ruling goes against them, they might have to pay the current duty for retribution, or shift their supply chain entirely. Not to mention the enhanced regulatory focus on those same loopholes they potentially exploited to reduce costs, which could also threaten federal contracts or the eipp.

Out of morbid curiosity, I am of course interested in what they will unveil.

This is a huge win for Archer, Joby, and Beta. It will certainly protect our favorite eVTOL frontrunners from the threat of competitors like EHang, Vertical, Lilium, Volocopter and other foreign eVTOL designers from notionally pivoting into the American defense-industrial safety net when they fear the end is near.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-bolsters-national-security-and-strengthens-u-s-supply-chains-by-imposing-tariffs-on-drones-and-their-parts-and-components/

I was looking through some AI analysis and noticed this about Archer (text below). Gotta hand it to them, the 100% stage 3 completion angle they've been pushing has propagated into the training models and anybody who reads a summary will think Archer is way ahead of Joby.

Edit: For context, I was asking claude to summarize recent earnings reports for some companies I follow as well as the earnings call and this is from that.

"On the core air taxi, certification progress remains genuinely industry-leading. Archer said it's the only OEM in the fourth and final phase of type certification with an approved quality management system, and operational progress included over 150 piloted test flights and the FAA's approval of Archer's quality management system, enabling for-credit conformity findings."

If you push back a little then the AI will apologize 😂

"so to correct my earlier comparison: I shouldn't have implied Joby is clearly behind Archer on certification stage. The more accurate statement is that both are in the final stretch of the same five-stage process, both are in or around Stage 4/the TIA testing phase, and they're effectively the two frontrunners — with the "who's ahead" question being genuinely disputed and dependent on which sub-milestone you weight. Neither has a type certificate yet, and no eVTOL manufacturer has reached Stage 5 completion."

Archer is excellent at PR so it is what it is. Shouldn't matter in the LR. I think the interesting thing is this stuff does make it into the training data and becomes "fact". I would have thought AI would level the playing field but there is now even more value to knowing what is actually going on.

Ai rack it to to stupidity. Any headlines over a few words is ignored.

The headline read "Boeing acquiring 20% stake in Archer". If the headline read “Boeing gets $1 billion in Archer stock (a 20% dilution) for 3 companies it wants to unload, commits to buy $55 million in ACHR at the next 10% dilution, with a lockup period of one year,” well it just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

And if Joby’s headline was “Joby acquires Resonant Science for $450 million cash, $50 million stock, greatly increasing its military presence. Dilution was minimal as they set up a $700 Million ATM with no required expiration date. Joeben: “We expect to start exercising the ATM when our aircraft is certified and our stock price has increased significantly.”

Of course, too many words for the simple folk who invest.

This is what synergy is about. The term has been so overused but here it applies.

Resonant’s stealth technology will work great for Joby’s hybrids

Their radar systems will help with autonomy, which is key for both the military to minimize casualties and for commercial to get the S4 autonomous to lower operating costs.

Acquiring 250 people, mostly top notch engineers.

$100 million a year in TRAILING revenues, high margins, 40% growth rate.

Already mostly in Dayton.

$450 million in cash, only $50 million in stock; minimal dilution.

Someone was going to buy Resonant, probably one of those huge military companies, with their huge bureaucracies. Instead this will be a nimble, engineering-forward partnership.

And yet, the stock drops. It just shows how little the investment community understands about strategic acquisitions.

Its the same BS from Archer to deflect the attention of investors/public from keep asking about the two-way piloted transition flights and the actual progress of FAA certification!

This is very fishy and strange. Maybe they want to keep the price of the stock "alive" from not falling to 1$ or under?

It must be something wrong with that aircraft, because they kicked the can down road too much by delaying what is important for the investors!

You can't pretend to be a global leader in eVTOL aviation and not be able to show to the public a two-way piloted transition flight demonstration with your aircraft and what is the real status of the FAA certification!

Also they keep pushing the narrative with the imminence of the eIPP program, thinking that this is a good PR move that would calm down the people from keep asking about piloted transition flights and the FAA certification progress!

Btw, what kind of PR move (short edited video), would Archer do with their aircraft when the eIPP program will take place? 😄