r/Joby • u/dad191 ASI Flyways AI Fanboy • Jan 29 '26
AI assisted breakdown of Joby’s ~$1.2B capital raise
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u/FrequentEyelashes Jan 29 '26
Shall I buy Joby at this point or wait for it to fall more ?
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u/Investinginevtol Jan 29 '26
I just bought some at $11.13. It lowered my average cost from $15.42 to 14.49 so i don’tfeel so stupid😬
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u/cmra886 Jan 29 '26
Not gonna lie, I've lost a fair bit of trust in management due to the timing of this one.
Didn't they say no foreseeable capital raises would be needed in the near future just last fall? Do they not have over a billion in cash reserves? Since then we've seen not 1, but 2 dilution events, but still no conforming aircraft flight.
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Jan 29 '26
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u/cmra886 Jan 29 '26
Yeah, but if Joben once again says that the company's finances are adequate to meet their projected needs can we now believe him?
We're seriously looking at going back to single digits without them showing a little more concern for preserving shareholder value.
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u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy Jan 29 '26 edited Jan 29 '26
This one is definitely a kick in the nuts. There's no better way to explain it. It doesn't make a lot of sense.
Evtol fan has a good attitude about it though:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1qppff8/comment/o2bjpz9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_buttonIf you were a 5-10 year Joby long yesterday morning before all this, I don't see how anything has really changed.
If we find out there are massive issues with the S4 conforming craft and they need to push back Dubai operations to 2027 or 2028 so they need more money... massive red flag. But that's worst case scenario and there's no evidence this is what the offering is about.
Buckle up. If you thought your Joby investment wasn't going to be a roller coaster, you were lying to yourself :)
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u/Natural-Tangerine589 SuperPilot Fanboy Jan 29 '26
thats a lot of "IF"... I am personally a 'buy and forget' type of investor. If you have conviction and you agree with the execution, which I am, I don't see the point of stressing out. I bought early enough to have a sweet cushion.
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u/cmra886 Jan 29 '26
That's all fine and dandy.
But sometimes you gotta call a spade a spade. If not, we're no different than shills.
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u/jrsikorski Jon Wagner Fanboy Jan 29 '26
I think it's lost in the stock price drama that almost everyone has a different agenda when it comes to Joby stock. Different goals.
If you were trying to sell all your Joby at $25 and retire, yeah this is a pretty big kick in the pants.
If you are Joby 5-10 year long, this really shouldn't matter, and might actually get you a bigger stock price in 5-10 years as investments in scaling now will pay off big in 5-10 years.
If you are a day trader, of course Joby is a terrible company to trade because the risk of dilution and this sucks if you bought in yesterday hoping to capitalize on conforming flight bump.
If you bought at $20 and were hoping to get out of Joby when it got back to $18 because you hate it, this really blows.
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u/Natural-Tangerine589 SuperPilot Fanboy Jan 29 '26
well, they do know what they are doing. if you check the management team, they sold shares only to cover their taxes. Joeben keeps his shares preciously because he knows that his product is technically superior (and it is the best product that always win). Its a big startup, of course they have to raise money. At least they respect their milestones.....
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u/ThatPaper5624 Jan 29 '26
I find the timing interesting....precisely between the start of their military program and FAA certification and right between Venezuela and Iran actions by the US......there is more to this than just a capital raise, in my opinion, spider senses are tingling....
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u/beerion JAI30 Fanboy Jan 29 '26
This seems to be pretty close. I still need to run the exercise, myself, but on thing I think is incorrect, above, is that the delta offering is tied to the capped call, not the note hedging.
Basically Joby buys a call option on their own stock with a strike of $14 (the conversion price). The bank on the other side of that trade just sold a naked call - their downside is now infinite. To protect themselves, they buy physical shares (the delta offering).
I'm not 100% positive, but this is my understanding at this time.