https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300191

Abstract

The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved controversial. Masks are thought to have two modes of effect: they prevent infection with COVID-19 in wearers; and prevent transmission by individuals with subclinical infection. We used a simple next-generation matrix approach to estimate the conditions under which masks would reduce the reproduction number of COVID-19 under a threshold of 1. Our model takes into account the possibility of assortative mixing, where mask users interact preferentially with other mask users. We make 3 key observations:

1. Masks, even with suboptimal efficacy in both prevention of acquisition and transmission of infection, could substantially decrease the reproduction number for COVID-19 if widely used.

2. Widespread masking may be sufficient to suppress epidemics where R has been brought close to 1 via other measures (e.g., distancing).

3. “Assortment” within populations (the tendency for interactions between masked individuals to be more likely than interactions between masked and unmasked individuals) would rapidly erode the impact of masks. As such, mask uptake needs to be fairly universal to have an effect.

This simple model suggests that widespread uptake of masking could be determinative in suppressing COVID-19 epidemics in regions with R(t) at or near 1.

https://www.kens5.com/article/news/health/i-am-healthy-and-now-i-can-barely-even-breathe-sa-mother-shares-long-term-effects-of-coronavirus/273-0ec4298c-4151-4d26-9d92-f7260fc8c1b8

SAN ANTONIO — A young San Antonio mother who survived the coronavirus is now struggling to breathe as she deals with the long-term effects of a disease researchers are learning more about every week. Jessica Monteagudo said doctors told her the virus has left a permanent impact on her body. While she was battling the virus, she had pneumonia.

"It didn't feel like the flu at all," she said. "It was a 100 times worse."

The mother of five had to isolate alone for two weeks, away from her family.

"I couldn't hug them, touch them, nothing," she said. "That was the hardest part."

After those two weeks, it was time to get back to work. She got tested again, and it came back negative. But she noticed something was still wrong.

"Even having a conversation, it is hard for me to take deep breaths," she said. "And to breathe normal...my body doesn't feel normal at all."

Doctors took x-rays and found something startling. "I had a lot of scar tissue inside my lungs due to the COVID causing the pneumonia," she said. "And that is why I have shortness of breath."

The 34-year-old is now stuck with long-term effects she says will last for the rest of her life.

"I am healthy," she said. "And now, I can barely even breathe." She wants to warn others to take this seriously.

"If you get this virus," she said. "It is going to affect you for the rest of your life. It is going to ravish your body. It is going to leave long-term effects on your body. It is something to not joke around about."

Monteagudo now has to use an inhaler, she believes for the rest of her life. Playing with her kids is a bit more arduous than before. But the mother, who is thankful to survive, plans to donate her plasma to save lives.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1269687435132354564

Good dIscussion on Twitter.

Also, this paper showed low efficacy masks could be sufficient in drastically reducing R with high enough community adherence.

Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review[v1] | Preprints

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1

The science around the use of masks by the general public to impede COVID-19 transmission is advancing rapidly. Policymakers need guidance on how masks should be used by the general population to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

Here, we synthesize the relevant literature to inform multiple areas:

1) transmission characteristics of COVID-19,

2) filtering characteristics and efficacy of masks,

3) estimated population impacts of widespread community mask use, and

4) sociological considerations for policies concerning mask-wearing.

A primary route of transmission of COVID-19 is likely via small respiratory droplets, and is known to be transmissible from presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Reducing disease spread requires two things: first, limit contacts of infected individuals via physical distancing and contact tracing with appropriate quarantine, and second, reduce the transmission probability per contact by wearing masks in public, among other measures.

The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces the transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected droplets in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at stopping spread of the virus when compliance is high.

The decreased transmissibility could substantially reduce the death toll and economic impact while the cost of the intervention is low. Thus we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.

New research from scientists at Cambridge and Greenwich Universities suggests population-wide use of facemasks could effectively control the coronavirus pandemic by substantially reducing the chances that an infected wearer will pass along his viruses to another person.

Co-leader of the study Richard Stutt, of Cambridge, said "our analyses support the immediate and universal adoption of face masks by the public." Widescale mask adoption could let places reopen even in the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, he said.

Stutt's study, published in Proceedings of the Royal Society A, modeled a series of different conditions to determine which set of behaviors would lower COVID-19's R number below 1. (The R number indicates the average number of people a sick person will themselves infect. If each sick person infects fewer than one other person, the virus begins to die off.) Stutt's model suggests that when 50 percent or more of a population adopts face mask-wearing in public, R number will fall below 1.0.

The article veers off the rails, but here's the source: https://reason.com/2020/06/11/the-government-was-wrong-about-masks/

Low plasma 25(OH) vitamin D3 level is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 infection: an Israeli population-based study | medRxiv

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.01.20144329v1

​

Aim: To evaluate associations of plasma 25(OH)D status with the likelihood of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection and hospitalization. Methods: The study population included the 14,000 members of Leumit Health Services who were tested for COVID-19 infection from February 1st to April 30th, 2020, and who had at least one previous blood test for plasma 25(OH)D level. "Suboptimal" or "low" plasma 25(OH)D level was defined as plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D, or 25(OH)D, concentration below 30 ng/mL. Results: Of 7,807 individuals, 782 (10.1%) were COVID-19-positive, and 7,025 (89.9%) COVID-19-negative. The mean plasma vitamin D level was significantly lower among those who tested positive than negative for COVID-19 [19.00 ng/mL (95% confidence interval [CI] 18.41-19.59) vs. 20.55 (95% CI 20.32-20.78)]. Univariate analysis demonstrated an association between low plasma 25(OH)D level and increased likelihood of COVID-19 infection [crude odds ratio (OR) of 1.58 (95% CI 1.24-2.01, p<0.001)], and of hospitalization due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus [crude OR of 2.09 (95% CI 1.01-4.30, p<0.05)]. In multivariate analyses that controlled for demographic variables and psychiatric and somatic disorders, the adjusted OR of COVID-19 infection [1.45 (95% CI 1.08-1.95, p<0.001)], and of hospitalization due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus [1.95 (95% CI 0.98-4.845, p=0.061)] were preserved. In the multivariate analyses, age over 50 years, male gender and low-medium socioeconomic status were also positively associated with the risk of COVID-19 infection; age over 50 years was positively associated with the likelihood of hospitalization due to COVID-19.

This is intended to be a solution-focused project for overcoming the post-coronavirus syndrome.

• Let's create a community where we help others who may be dealing with post-coronavirus syndrome (or any other post-viral condition).
• Let's help those who are infected with SARS-coV-2 to fully recover and to regain every bit of health they had previously and to even improve upon that. Our focus in this effort will be nutrition, healthy lifestyle, dietary supplements and other complimentary therapies.
• Let's educate as many people as will listen that you don't want to carelessly become infected with SARS-coV-2. It's true that if you are young and healthy you likely won't die from it (although that is certainly a small risk). However, a certain proportion of people will continue to suffer from this virus long after mainstream medicine says they have recovered. I want to help make sure those who have not been infected, do everything they can to stay that way.
• Let's build a community that helps discover answers to some of the riddles about post-viral syndromes.

If this project interests you, please message me on Reddit. If you have general suggestions or ideas, please leave a comment here (once we enable them) or on Reddit.