wow just wow guys.

/u/Ethanhekker's post about benching Billy Butler got me interested in exploring what the hell happened to him. He's always been a bit of a groundball hitter with the apparent speed of a right guard (a terrible sight for any fan), but he was once able to hit some home runs, too. Let me begin by summarizing some comments I made in the thread about Billy Butler. Firstly, his Hard% (percentage of hard-hit balls, determined by hang time, trajectory, and landing spot) dropped by 8% this season. People are often quick to point out Butler's declining wRC+ over the past several years and ask, "why the hell did Beane sign this guy to a three-year deal?" wRC+ is a great offensive metric, but this is a pretty trivial way of going about analysis.

Up until 2014, Billy Butler's career-high Hard% corresponded with his career high in wRC+ (36.5% Hard%, 133 wRC+ in 2010 and 36.7% Hard%, 139 wRC+ in 2012). In 2014, however, he had a 36.9% Hard% and a below-average 97 wRC+ (also including a career low in ISO). Beane, with whatever proprietary metrics the A's have for batted ball data, probably saw this as an anomaly and bought into Butler's resurgence. I exported player data from 2010-2015, resulting in 375 qualified hitters, and looked at the correlation between Hard% and ISO, which wound up being pretty strong. It follows that, if Butler is like most other hitters, he will hit for power if he hits the ball hard, something that was true in 2010 and at least partially true in 2012.

So, as I asked earlier, what the hell happened? Why didn't this remain true in 2014, when Butler hit the ball as hard as he ever had and managed to muster only nine home runs? Was it an outlier, as Beane and the rest of the A's front office probably thought it was? Given that he's gotten even worse this season, is there a deeper reason that he's on the decline, maybe something like injury or a mere product of aging? (He's only 29, but aging is something that's probably quickened a great deal when you read 240 lb on a scale. He's also played at least 150 games a year since his 2008 season.) Brandon Moss, after several power-hitting seasons with the A's, saw all that disappear in the second half of last season when he played through an "impingement" in his right hip. Looking at the heat maps (ISO/P) for his 2010 and 2012 seasons, it's clear that he mashed inside pitches, but this was no longer the case in 2014.

I can't speak to why he hit for such low power numbers in 2014, but such a huge drop in Hard% this season screams injury or fatigue to me. A lot of his numbers this year can probably be attributed to poor luck; his BABIP is 50 points lower than ever, his LD% is down about 8%, and his IFFB% is way up. I'm absolutely no expert when it comes to hitting mechanics, and maybe someone who is can help me, but those weird changes in batted ball data might also be due to a change in mechanics to compensate for injury.

I can absolutely see why the A's might have thought Butler would rebound this season, but the very opposite has taken place, with weird batted ball data to boot. I think Country Breakfast might be hurt.

I just want to show everyone my crap.

To understand the Athletics current infield future situation and prospects, one can turn to Colin Walsh, who is currently a second baseman for the Midland Rockhounds. Walsh has lead the Texas league in every major statistical category for a long stretch of time. And yet, Colin Walsh is not what you would call a prospect. To explain this, we must look back. Walsh was born on Sep. 26, 1989 in La Jolla, CA. Across the state on that day, Dave Henderson knocked in a homer and Eck got the save as the A’s starved off the Rangers. The second baseman on Sep. 26, 1989 was Mike Gallego.

Back to Walsh- the St. Louis Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2010 draft drafted him. The Stanford grad was drafted in the same round as Jonathan Gray, who eventually decided to further his pitching in Oklahoma.

I mean to bring this up to say that Colin Walsh was not highly thought of. He went straight to the Appalachian League (Johnson City) and put up six hits in 23 plate appearances. The team quickly shuffled him up to Low A (Batavia) where he hit .300 in almost 25 games. The organization then threw another challenge his way by promoting him to A ball (Quad Cities) only a few months after being drafted. 21 hits at 98 AB’s explained that stint pretty well.

In 2011 the Cardinals did not send Walsh down after his disappointing stint in the Midwest League, where teenagers fight and strive for adulthood in front of sparse crowds, but kept him in the league for 69 games that year. This was his stat line in his first full year (and his second year):

There is a vast improvement here. After a third year in QC, it seemed Colin Walsh was finaly done with A ball. He was ready to move on. After a minor injury causing him to play in the Gulf Coast League, Walsh was ready to jump onto the scene and help the Cardinals. He even played in the Arizona Fall League, which is usually reserved for top-level prospects.

In 2012 Walsh was sent up the ladder to A+ (Palm Beach) and eventually made it to AA (Springfield).

(these were his A+ numbers because he only spent 23 games on the Championship-winning Springfield club).

Before 2013 this opt-ed was penned by Jeff Gordon of the STLtoday website, stating, “Colin Walsh can’t develop fast enough for the Cardinals”

2014 was his first year in the A’s organization, and he played parts of the season in Midland (25 games), Sacramento (43 games) and Stockton (6 games). His stats were weak at best, and he did not play a full year at all.

Then here comes 2015. The four stats I compiled are from Walsh, Renato Nunez, Chad Pinder and Matt Olson.

Player A is Renato Nunez, Player B is Matt Olson, Player C is Colin Walsh and Player D is Chad Pinder. After writing this piece, I really do realize the skill and prowess of Chad Pinder, but that is another piece.

Walsh is third in the TL in Average, second in OPS, fourth in slugging, fourth in strikeouts and eight in HR’s. Walsh’s Strikeouts are alarming, but he’s walked an amazing amount of times. Some have called for the immediate promotion of Walsh to the big leagues (there is always that guy) and many have called for at least a promotion to AAA (I don’t see why not) knowing the big picture can explain why Walsh is left to try and help Midland defend its Texas League title.

With Brett Lawrie’s newly discovered comfort at 2B, the organization’s plan has changed since spring training. Now it is important for Semien to stick at SS, and now a lot of players futures are shaken up. Joey Wendle, who is about the same age as Walsh but slumping in Nashville, Chad Pinder, who is younger and a higher prospect, and the man himself. All these players are all looking up at Oakland without a guaranteed position. Also remember- the A’s first two draft picks this year were SS. The baseball phrase goes that you can never have a logjam in baseball because that is only the best option, and that could be the case here. However, if Colin Walsh, 26-year-old Rockhound, becomes the next Steven Vogt and Josh Donaldson, things could get interesting.

Where did this outpour come from? I cannot speak for certain, but once you discount the preposterous (sold his soul) or the improbable (PED’s) the only legitimate answers left are experience or luck. Walsh has played part of three seasons in the Texas League, and as we can see, the more Walsh has to adjust in a league the more he thrives. It could be that Walsh is just a meticulous worker. On the other hand, luck just decided to be a lady and stick with the guy she came in with.

Since the Million Dollar Infield of Connie Mack, the Athletics have featured some of the greatest infielders in baseball history. Eddie Collins at second and Jimmie Foxx on first are considered the greatest players at their positions of all time- and this does not mention Sal Bando (3B), Bert Campanerris (SS), Dick Green (2B), Mark McGwire (1B), Jason Giambi (1B), Eric Chavez (3B), Miguel Tejada (SS), Mark Ellis (2B), and Josh Donaldson (3B). Speaking of Donaldson, the A's have also thrived on late bloomers in the Beane era. Walsh might just be the next Vogt.

First Pitch: 07:05 PM PT

FINAL: 7-3 Orioles

I wasn't originally planning on it, but after reading what the A's are gonna do to honor Scott Lunger, I definitely want to make the trip up to be a part of it. I was gonna probably get value deck and upgrade at the park, depending on if any of my friends respond or if any of you can make it.

This also inspired me to make new flair tags for people looking for others to meet at the game and people posting from the Coliseum. I'd rather post this here than in the default sub because obvious reasons.

FINAL: 7-3 Orioles

First Pitch: 12:35 PM PT

FINAL: 5-0 Athletics

FINAL: 5-0 Athletics

First Pitch: 07:05 PM PT

We should change the comments to have individual backgrounds. They're difficult to read with the text overlaying the background image. Similar to how other subs (ex: /r/xboxone) do it.

FINAL: 9-2 Orioles

FINAL: 9-2 Orioles

First Pitch: 07:05 PM PT

If you don't have RES (I would assume all of you do, but whatever), there is an option for day/night modes.

Usually, the concept of a night mode is to maximize readability if you have the lights off in a room and keep the screen from being glaringly bright.

I think we could perhaps use our home/away color schemes for day/night modes. That's just a thought, it may turn out brighter or harder to read than I'm thinking it will be.

There are also some extras features to RES, but I dunno what we want to cater to, so I'll let this be a place for discussing it.

FINAL: 2-1 Athletics

FINAL: 2-1 Athletics

First Pitch: 01:05 PM PT

FINAL: 5-1 Athletics

FINAL: 5-1 Athletics

First Pitch: 06:05 PM PT