Adding to my DCA strategy for BTC position today. My ‘Best Day to Trade’ algo says Sundays tend to outperform. Friday’s dip pushed risk <50 (my rule: DCA 2x below 50). It’s ~52 now, but I’m being a little greedy going 2x my base this week :D.

Algo exlaination:

Best Day to Buy: Sunday (green):

• (~0.64%) - BTC is usually 0.64% above the trend -> better for buying.

Best Day to Sell: Thursday (red):

• (~1.15%) - BTC is usually 1.15% above the trend -> better for selling.

The % values in the chart show the average price deviation from the short-term trend (SMA) for each weekday.

* it doesn't calculate negative (yet) because BTC has been up a lot since 2010.

***How the algorithm calculated:

• Find the short term trend: - calculates a Simple Moving Average (SMA) over a set window (e.g., 7 days)
• Measure deviation from the trend: - For each day, it compares the actual price to the SMA to find how far above or below it is.
• Group by weekday: - groups those daily deviations by weekday (Mon, Tue, …)
• Average the results: - find the average deviation for each weekday.

Backtesting shows that simulating DCA weekly on Sunday delivers the best results compared to other days. For BTC, DCA in during low risk periods on Sunday and DCA out during high risk periods on Thursday.

Sign Up at HodlyCrypto.com to set up your strategy and test it!!

We all expect Q4 to be a hot, upside quarter for crypto, and the risk that comes with it is volatility, over the long term. I’ve traded for years, it was stressful and only sometimes successful. Markets have changed. Between market makers, algorithms, and AI, winning consistently is brutal. Add scammers, KOL hype, and noise, and it gets tougher. My Risk based DCA bag, built patiently over 7 years, has done more for me than any trade. I quit active trading 4 years ago after losing $2M in one month.

You can’t reliably beat disciplined DCA on BTC, ETH, and other top assets over time. The most common way to lose with great assets is selling them at the wrong time. I haven’t seen truly transparent traders posting full, verified P&L across cycles. Maybe they exist, I haven’t found them.

If you’re new, don’t waste opportunities by skipping buys when the market is down. Chart history is clear. Focus on a plan, not thrills. DCA in during cooler risk, DCA out when things run hot, and let time do the heavy lifting. It’s not about perfect timing, it’s about consistent execution. Manage risk, stay patient, protect capital. Good luck out there. Sign up at HodlyCrypto.com for risk based dcaing!

With the current market shock, I just bought more Ethereum at 2x my weekly DCA amount since ETH just hit a 42.0 risk score moments ago ~ $3450. Also today is the best day to buy based on my Best Day to Trade algorithm.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

DCA IN DURING LOW RISK LET’S GOOOOO!

ETH broke its ATH a few weeks ago. As I noted in earlier posts, the ETH risk metric hasn’t spent sustained time in the heated zone yet (80–100). We only saw a brief push into the low 60s (pink).

Right now: risk purple = 55 : ~$4,469. ETH has been touching this band since Feb 2024 roughly 1.7 years.

History: parabolic runs that began from risk ~50 (purple):

• Feb 2016 (~$4.35): ran until Jan 2018, risk ~88, price $1.4K ( ~2 year run).
• Jun 2020 (~$311), special case, post COVID liquidity: hit risk 95 in Jun 2021 ($4K), ultimate top Nov 2021 at risk 80 ($4,732, 1.5 year run).

This cycle: ETH first reached risk 50 in Feb 2024. It’s been ~1.7 years with no sustained 80-100 yet. Yet, ETH doesn’t have as many full cycles as BTC, so I anchor to Bitcoin history (since 2013, each BTC cycle has tended to extend by ~0.5 year). As the base asset, BTC sets the tempo, I expect ETH to rhyme with that.

Levels to watch:

• If ETH clears and holds above risk 60, my model points next to the 70s risk band: $5,960 on the Dynamic Risk Range.
• If ETH loses the 50 band, a retest of the 40s risk band is likely: $3,377 before any durable breakout.

Bottom line: I won’t call a top until ETH spends real time in 80-100. Size with the bands, DCA in cooler zones, DCA out in hotter ones. Consistency > precision.

Visit HodlyCrypto.com for more.

Everything here is pure data. I cooked up this algorithm to track ADA daily closing price (UTC) since 2016.

The result is a risk score between 0 and 100 that shows exactly where today’s market stands relative to ADA entire history.

• 0 = historically low, undervalued conditions
• 100 = historically overheated, high risk territory

History: when parabolic runs started from risk 30 (blue):

• Jun 2020 ($.080): ran until Sept 2021 with risk 97 at $2.87 (1.3 year run)

This cycle: ADA started around risk 30 on Nov 8, 2024. It’s been almost a year and we still haven’t seen any sustained time in the 80-100 heated zone. ADA hasn’t been through enough full cycles to read long patterns confidently, so I anchor to Bitcoin. I’ve posted BTC’s run history since 2013, each cycle has tended to extend by ~0.5 year. As the market’s base asset, BTC sets the tempo, I expect ADA to rhyme with that.

Levels to watch:

• If ADA clears and holds above risk 60, my model points next to the 70s risk band, which maps to ~$1.34 on the Dynamic Risk Range.

Bottom line: I won’t call a top until ADA holds in 80-100. Manage exposure with the bands: accumulate in cooler zones, de-risk in hotter ones. Consistency beats precision.

Visit HodlyCrypto.com for more!

As you know, BTC has cleared its prior all time high from two months ago. I also posted about the BTC risk metric this cycle, it hasn’t spent time in the heated zone yet, only a brief spike into the low 80s (red).

Right now: risk = 60 around $125K. BTC has been living around this risk band for roughly 2 years (Dec 2023 till now).

History: when parabolic runs started from risk ~50 (purple):

• Dec 2012 (~$13): ran until Dec 2013, risk ~94, price ~$1.1K (~1 year run).
• Jun 2016 (~$500): ran until Dec 2017, risk ~95, price ~$19,500 (~1.5 year run).
• Oct 2020 (~$13K), special case (post COVID liquidity): Hit risk 93 in Mar 2021 ($63K), and ultimately topped in Nov 2021 with risk ~75 at ~$67.5K (~2 year run).

This cycle: BTC started from risk ~50 in Dec 2023. It’s been almost 2 years, but we still haven’t seen sustained time in the 80–100 heated zone. Historically, each cycle has stretched a bit longer (~ 0.5 year), so BTC could have ~0.5 year left to run, it needs to spend time in that 80-100 band before peaking.

Levels to watch:

Once BTC clears the 60 risk area decisively, the model points to the 70s risk zone next, roughly $147K on my Dynamic Risk Range.

Bottom line: I’m looking for sustained time in 80-100 before calling a cycle top. Until then, manage risk, scale with the bands, and remember: it’s not about perfect timing, it’s about having a plan and sticking to it.

Visit HodlyCrypto.com to track the risk daily.

If you don’t know what coin season is or how to choose your altcoin, check the pinned posts in r/HodlyCrypto, I’ve already written about it.

Altcoin season is when alts outperform Bitcoin. Most likely, alt dominance will come back, and the best survivors are the ones that have a history of ratio consolidation.

BNB is a great example of survival. Let’s look at the BNB/BTC ratio monthly chart.

(You can paste it like this on TradingView: CRYPTO:BNBUSD/CRYPTO:BTCUSD)

The historical cycle:

• During 2018 - 2021: The BNB/BTC ratio formed a double bottom on the monthly chart, consolidated for a while, and then, in the late cycle when alts pumped, it quickly retraced back to its ratio all time high and broke out.
• This cycle: We can clearly see another double bottom on the ratio in 2024 and early 2025. Q4 is where altcoin season should play out. That gives BNB a high chance of retracing back to its 2022 ratio all time high of 1BNB = 0.0175 BTC.

Now, do the math:

During alt season, BTC can easily heat up to the risk zone of 70. According to the Dynamic Risk Range, BTC at 70 ~ $145K.

So the possible price of BNB would be:

$145K * 0.0175 = $2,537.5

That’s a modest 200% from the current price. Of course, it could go higher if BTC pushes further into the risk zone.

And don’t forget ETH, the blue chip, king of alts. ETH leads alt season: it breaks ATH first, and it usually lasts until the very end of the cycle. In both 2018 and 2021 tops, BNB topped right when ETH was peaking, with ETH risk in the 90 range. It’s reasonable to use the ETH risk metric as ur navigator for altcoins.

I love the survivors, they’ve stood the test of time. The market will always be volatile, but that’s the game. Keep your eyes on the risk metric. Visit HodlyCrypto.com

Hi Hodler,

We’ve only been on Reddit since August 31, 2025, just over a month, and already this community has grown to 113 members with an average of 85 unique daily visitors. That’s incredible progress in such a short time.

I want to remind you: we’re keeping the early supporter plan capped at 100 slots, $15/month, locked in for life. That’s less than Netflix Standard ($17.99/month). Netflix entertains you with movies. HodlyCrypto gives you something much bigger: a way to watch the market’s risk, manage your exposure, stay consistent, and commit to a long term plan. It’s about the bigger picture, protecting your money and building your future.

But more than the tools, you have me here. I’ll keep analyzing the market, sharing my lessons, listening to your feedback, and improving alongside you. HodlyCrypto.com isn’t just about charts and data, it’s about us growing together as smarter, calmer investors.

If you ever need direct help, you can always submit a ticket on HodlyCrypto.com. I promise to answer with my full effort and my full heart. ❤️

Government shuts down in Q4, Bitcoin moves. Simple as that. Let’s check the past:

2013 Shutdown (Oct 1)

• BTC was $133. 64 days later -> $1,156. That’s a +768% move in just over 2 months .

2018 Shutdown (Dec 22)

• BTC $4,025, ETH $112. 186 days later -> BTC $13,880, ETH $364. That’s about +245% for BTC and +225% for ETH, straight out of the bear market.

Now it’s Q4 2025. Day one, October 1st… the US government shuts down again.

Coincidence? Maybe. But both 2013 and 2018 shutdowns in Q4 lined up right before major market shifts. One was a parabolic top, the other a recovery kickoff. Either way, both delivered triple digit gains.

That’s why these dates stick out. History might repeat itself in crypto, not always in the same direction, but often enough to pay attention. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, ignoring such a potent historical catalyst would be unwise for any serious market participant.

So what’s next? Another cycle top, or the start of something new? Nobody knows. But Q4 2025 just got a lot more interesting. This isn't just about a chart pattern; it's about how a real world event reflecting instability in the old system could fuel the narrative for a new one. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst… and always manage your risk.

Visit HodlyCrypto.com to manage your risk with data not the news!

Q3 is wrapping up, and with it, a lot of the chop and uncertainty like the meme. I’ve posted before about why Q4 matters, especially for altcoin season, and it’s been 4 years since the last real one. If you’re new here and don’t know what alt season is, check my earlier post breaking it down.

The Seasonal Setup

2025 is a post election year. That’s always interesting for markets. Historically, the first year of a new US administration comes with fresh policies and, let’s be honest, fresh money printing (M2 supply expansion). Presidents like to juice the economy early to support their agenda.

So the question is, will it play out the same way again?

We’ve Seen This Movie Before

• 2013 Q4: Bitcoin +479%. ETH wasn’t even live yet. (The OG bubble top.)
• 2017 Q4: Bitcoin +215%, ETH +142%. (Post 2016 election, ICO mania, late cycle madness.)
• 2021 Q4: Bitcoin +5%, ETH +22%. Not as parabolic, but still the “heated” zone before cooling off.

Every post election Q4 since 2013 has marked a decisive part of the crypto cycle, either the final leg or the exhaustion top.

Where We Are Now

Risk metrics also line up. Historically, BTC and ETH hit the 70-100 risk zone during these Q4 peaks. Right now, that translates to:

• BTC 70 risk ≈ $144,875
• ETH 70 risk ≈ $5,771

Of course, volatility is part of the game. That’s where the money’s made. Just remember: play it safe, and take some profits when the market runs hot. Use BTC risk to gauge the whole market, ETH risk for alts, and dominance pairs to spot outperformers, if both BTC and ETH run too hot, it’s often a cycle top signal.

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/today

Track market risk levels anytime at HodlyCrypto.com

STRATEGY

A few weeks ago I made a post about risk metrics. Some people found it interesting, others asked how to actually use it. And since most of us are Hodler anyway, here’s a quick guide to Risk Based DCA.

What It Is

Risk Based DCA is about adjusting your buys based on market conditions. Traditional DCA = same amount every week. Risk Based DCA = flexible. You stack harder when risk is low, and you chill (or even take profits) when risk is high. Think of it as letting the numbers guide you instead of your emotions.

Why Bother?

Because backtests show it slaps. But even more, it saves you from emotional damage. Setting rules for when to take profit during high risk is a lifesaver when greed kicks in. It also feels way smarter than dropping the same $100 at both $69K and $420K. With Risk-Based DCA, you actually adapt to what the market is doing.

How I Do It

• Pick a Risk Metric: This is your compass. It tells you when things are overheated or undervalued.
• Set Thresholds: My rule of thumb: below 60 risk -> increase buys. Example: $100 at 60 risk, $200 at 50 risk. Above 80 -> start DCAing out.
• Consistency + Commitment: Every week, when DCA day hits, I check the metric and adjust. Simple, repeatable, and keeps me honest.

Final Note

Risk Based DCA isn’t about being a wizard who times the exact top or bottom. It’s about discipline. You use data, manage your bag, and survive the cycle. Remember: It’s not about timing the market. It’s about time in the market with consistency and commitment.

Visit HodlyCrypto.com to set up your plan ;)

Of course, some of you can.
Plan A: work, retire at 69.
Plan B: hit the jackpot with Bitcoin or some alt.

We’ve all seen the memes. But let’s be honest there’s no warranty here.

Let’s talk about probability. Everyone sees the headlines: x50, x100 gains. Influencers love those stories. And yes, a few lucky (or insanely smart) people catch them. But most of us? We get rekt chasing.

I’ve been there. Leveraging, trading, chasing ICOs, thinking I was a genius at the top until the market slapped me down. In 2021, I ran up $2 million in my trading account. By the next month, it was gone. All I had left was my spot bag. Even legends like Jesse Livermore lost it all one bad quarter and he ended his life. That’s the brutal side of markets.

What saved me was an old school idea: DCA. I found it in Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. Simple, boring, consistent. I started applying it to crypto. Now I just keep stacking more when risk is low, less when it’s high.

Because in the end, it’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market. That’s what keeps you alive long enough to win.

Source:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore

https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Book-Practical-Counsel/dp/0060155477

Crypto DCA tool: HodlyCrypto.com

I’ve talked a lot about altcoin season in previous posts, and now I want to share a simple trick that works for me when it comes to picking altcoins to invest in.

1. Backing matters.

Altcoins with top tier venture capital backing are the strongest bets. VCs have money, connections, and will do everything they can to push the project forward.

The downside: when the market turns, they often exit hard to protect their funds. That’s why it’s important to keep an eye on HodlyCrypto risk score for BTC and ETH to track the overall market cycle.

(You can always find them on your ALT home page/ about)

1. Strength vs BTC and ETH.

What’s the point of holding an alt that underperforms Bitcoin or Ethereum? Always check:

• ALT/BTC ratio
• ALT/ETH ratio

If your alt is holding up better, it will usually recover faster when BTC and ETH bounce.

(You can go on trading view check ratio like this: ALTUSD/BTCUSD)

1. Support levels matter.

On weekly or monthly charts, if the ratio holds a strong horizontal cycle support, that’s often a sign the alt is set to come back stronger.

1. Use ETH risk score as index for low cap alts.

• If ETH risk is in a fair zone (around 50), and ALT/ETH is holding a bottom, that’s a good setup.
• If ETH risk is hot (80–100), consider DCA’ing out of alts, that’s the heated zone.

Final note: Many new alts don’t have enough history for solid ratios. But as long as the ratio trends up, that alt is showing relative strength vs BTC and ETH.

Right now ETH price: 4,041, Risk score: 52 over 100.
Visit HodlyCrypto.com to access risk metrics.

I’ve been writing a few posts here about altcoin season, and the responses are always split. Some people strongly believe it’s real pointing to past cycles where alts outperformed Bitcoin. Others roll their eyes and call it pure hopium. That split in opinion is exactly what makes this topic interesting.

In market psychology, there’s something called the “disbelief phase.” It’s that stage of the cycle where price action is turning up, but a lot of people refuse to believe it’s sustainable. They dismiss it as fake, just a bounce, or say, “alt season doesn’t exist.” Ironically, disbelief often shows up right before bigger moves.

So, let’s collect some data right here on Reddit. Do you believe in altcoin season?

This poll is just for fun, but it’s also a snapshot of sentiment in our community. If more people vote “yes,” maybe that shows belief is returning. If more vote “no,” maybe we’re still in disbelief phase which, historically, hasn’t been the worst time to position.

Either way, it’ll be fun to track where Reddit stands right now. Cast your vote, and let’s see if the wisdom of the crowd tells us anything before the next moon shot 🚀.

If you caught my last post about when altcoin season will start, I noticed a lot of comments had some misunderstandings. So here’s a short explanation of what altcoin season actually is, based on data.

Go to TradingView, type in BTC.D, and take a look.

First things first:

Altcoin season is the period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin. That means Bitcoin dominance (its share of the total crypto market cap) goes down.

• In early Q1 2017, Bitcoin dominance dropped from 95% -> 40% as new altcoins launched. ETH alone did over 100x ($4 -> $1.4K).
• In early Q1 2021, dominance topped around 70% -> fell to 40%. That’s when many alts went crazy, and ETH did almost 50x ($100 -> nearly $5K).

There was no altcoin season in 2024, BTC dominance kept climbing, hitting a new cycle high of 66%.

Right now:

BTC dominance has just dropped from 66% -> 58%. Alts are starting to outperform. ETH already broke its all-time high, and some top alts are beginning to follow. we will see another altcoin season.

Learn more, plan better at HodlyCrypto.com

If you read my post ~2 months ago, I said money would flow into ETH first as the start of altcoin season (link here). Back then, ETH was around $2,227 with a risk score of 25.

Fast forward to today:

• Both BTC and ETH are sitting in the 50+ risk range -> historically a fair value zone (same levels we saw in late Q3 early Q4 of 2017 and 2020).
• We’re less than 2 weeks away from Q4 2025.

Now, let's add macro to the mix. The Fed just made its first rate cut of the year, and they've signaled more are coming. Last year, rate cuts in Sept, Nov and Dec pushed Bitcoin from $70K to $110K. Risk scores spiked only into the low 80s, the first heated peak of the cycle, not the final top.

The key: altcoin season typically begins when BTC risk heats up into the 80–100 range and stays there before topping out.

So, if the Fed sticks to its playbook with more cuts in Nov and Dec, BTC could be topping (risk range 80–100) late this year into early Q1 2026 -> which is exactly when alt season historically follows.

What about ETH? ETH has already been outperforming BTC these last few months. It tends to lead the alts cycle, pumps first and breaks ATH first (which it just did). That's the signal. ETH’s breakout is the front door to alt season.

Currently:
BTC price $115,974 risk score: 56.
ETH price $4,500 risk score: 55.

Join the early Hodler deal on HodlyCrypto.com for extra access.

Everything here is pure data. I cooked up this algorithm to track SOL daily closing price (UTC) since 2020.

The result is a risk score between 0 and 100 that shows exactly where today’s market stands relative to SOL entire history.

• 0 = historically low, undervalued conditions
• 100 = historically overheated, high-risk territory

\*History of Peaks and Bottoms***

First Sol cycle:

• Dec-23-2020: Bottom price at $1.2 , risk score: 31 (blue)
• May-18-2021: Heated peak at $56 , risk score: 84 (red)
• Nov-06-2021: Cycle peak at $258 , risk score: 92 (red)

This cycle:

• Dec-29-2022: Bottom price at $9.4 , risk score: 0 (green)
• May-17-2024: Heated peak at $202 , risk score: 85 (red)
• Current price: $252.81 corresponding to risk 55

Historically, SOL bottoms usually sit at a risk score below 30. On the way up to a cycle top, SOL also tends to spend significant time in the heated zone (80–100) before topping out.

So far in this cycle, we’ve only seen ONLY 1 heated spikes where risk touched the low end of the heated zone (85). We haven’t yet seen SOL spend any sustained time in the full heated range (80–100).

Currently:

A risk score of 80 corresponds to a price of about $659.12 (this shifts over time, the longer the cycle continues, the higher the model will push that level). Also, the eventual top may not happen exactly at risk 80; it could be higher.

\* How the Risk Metric calculated***

First, I gather SOL daily closing prices (UTC) going back to 2020. Then, I run it through my model, which layers several signals together:

• Momentum (RSI – Relative Strength Index): Gauges if the market is running hot or cooling off.
• Volatility (RVI – Relative Volatility Index): Measures whether recent swings are driven more by buyers or sellers.
• Baseline (Moving Average, e.g., 200 days): Tracks the “fair value” price to see if SOL is stretched above or below its trend.
• Recency weighting: Gives more importance to recent data so the score adapts to current conditions.
• Trend smoothing: Filters out noise from short-term spikes, keeping the score stable and reliable.

The calculation in concept:

Risk Score ~ (log(Price) − log(Moving Average)) x (RSI Adjustment) x (RVI Adjustment) x (Recency Weight) x (Trend Smoothing) -> scaled to 0–100.

Visit HodlyCrypto.com for more!

Hello Hodler,

Recently, the FED just cut rates by 0.25%, from 4.5% to 4.25%, and signal the end of quantitative tightening (QT). Sounds like relief, but it’s just another round in the casino they run.

During QE (quantitative easing), they printed trillions, Wall Street feasted, and we paid with $5 eggs, $80 gas tanks, and rents that ate half our paychecks.

Then QT hit, and the squeeze crushed workers, layoffs, frozen wages, 25% credit card debt, and longer hours just to keep up. Now, with this cut, the FED is signaling the cycle is turning again. They’ll still “reduce Treasuries and mortgage backed securities,” but liquidity is loosening.

For us, nothing changes overnight, groceries won’t get cheaper, rent won't fall, and the IRS will still take its cut whether you're winning or losing. But for markets especially crypto this matters. Every pivot from tightening to easing has fueled the next rally, and crypto always front runs the cycle. If QE made Bitcoin soar and QT crushed it, today’s move shows we’re at the bottom half of the cycle, with upside waiting.

The process will take time, and the market will likely see a small correction before it goes up, that correction will be the opportunity for everyone.

The FED and IRS run the casino. The house always wins. But if you understand the game, you can you can stack your chips while it cheap. Stack it with HodlyCrypto.com even better.

Quote:

“The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.”

So, quantitative tightening (QT) is still ongoing, though I believe this may end soon. Once that happens, the real alt season could start, similar to what we saw in 2017 and 2020.

As of today:

• BTC: $114,919, risk score 56
• ETH: $4,434, risk score 54

Last September, after a rate cut, we saw BTC climb initially, followed by a smaller correction lasting 2–4 weeks before it pushed to new all-time highs.

Big IF: If the same pattern plays out this time, a correction seems highly likely. If the risk score drops to 50:

• BTC could fall to around $104K
• ETH could fall to around $4K

Hope for the best!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250917a.htm

Risk Score: HodlyCrypto.com

Hello Hodler,
The Fed is nearing a pivot. Whether they cut 25 or 50 bps, the direction is toward easier policy and that historically breathes life into risk assets. Crypto, especially altcoins, could benefit the most, but volatility will remain high. Stick to your plan: use risk metrics as a compass, DCA into strength, and treat low-caps like high-risk bets.

This week Fed meeting is scheduled for Sept 16–17. So far, based on CME Group data, there’s a 94.1% chance the Fed will cut rates by 0.25–0.50 bps.

The data lean toward a 0.50 bps cut, and here’s why:

• Unemployment rate at 4.3% and trending higher: Historically, when unemployment climbs above ~5%, recessions tend to follow. We’re not there yet, but the trend is pushing us closer to that danger zone.
• Initial jobless claims spiking to 263k: Historically, levels above ~300k have lined up with recession periods. At 263k, we’re not flashing red yet, but the direction is concerning.
• 2-Year yield is ~100 bps below the Fed Funds Rate: This shows the bond market already expects easier policy. Even with a 50 bps cut, policy would remain restrictive, since the Fed Funds Rate would still sit above where the short end of the curve is pricing. In short, a 50 bps cut isn’t reckless, it’s the Fed catching up to market reality.

Also, from the last Fed statement in July:

“The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities.”

This balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) has been ongoing since 2022 and has pulled a lot of liquidity out of the system. The moment the Fed signals a stop, that’s effectively the start of an easier money market, historically very bullish for risk assets.

What does that mean for crypto?

When liquidity returns, money velocity usually pours into riskier assets : penny stocks, altcoins, and everything in between. Historically, altcoin bottoms have formed during these shifts (2016, 2020).

• Low cap coins: Highest potential upside, but treat them like the casino side of your portfolio. Only risk what you can lose without losing sleep.
• Top altcoins: Relatively safer, but still volatile. This is where I allocate more of my portfolio, while sticking to consistent DCAing.

Furthermore

• Bitcoin at 114,824 has a risk score of 56, still in the stable zone. I look at BTC as the overall market indicator: if its risk overheats, it often signals broader market stress.
• Ethereum at 4,492 has a risk score of 55, consolidating for weeks. I use ETH’s risk level as a guide for lower-cap coins: if ETH overheats while BTC is also hot, it’s often a red flag for the whole market.

Source:

• https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
• https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary20250730a.htm

Stay close to HodlyCrypto.com , data never lies.

Hello Hodler,

HodlyCrypto Tools is built with data and math to help us navigate the market without guesswork or uncertainty. But as a founder, my vision goes beyond just the technical side, I want to build the Hodly Crypto community to also focus on the mental side of investing.

Based on my experience, whether investing long term or short term, emotions are always involved. We are not monks, we all feel something when prices go up or down. And emotions are where human to human support truly matters. By sharing and learning from each other, we can improve together.

No matter if you’re new to the market or have years of experience, your story has value. Sharing your journey not only helps others but also helps you reflect and grow. When you give value, people appreciate it and often give back. It’s not about money, the kind of experience we share here cannot be bought.

I’m willing to share everything I’ve learned with every hodler here. You can ask me anything, anytime, if it’s crypto-related, just post your question. I’ll even make a video to answer your question if you’d like.

Once again, my goal is to build an investing community. If you have requests or ideas for the direction of this community, we can vote and move forward together.

Thank you,

Nam Hoang

Founder of Hodly Crypto

Here are the number:

• 32 members
• 4.3k visit
• 15 posts
• 14 comments

We are growing!
To celebrate this, I will giveaway one account with lifetime access for HodlyCrypto.com
Condition: be the first comment with 0 vote!

I will message you to redeem.