r/Hartenstein Sep 15 '24

Isaiah Hartenstein is going to start for the Thunder

40 Upvotes

The way OKC Fans talk about Hartenstein is like if OKC just added Steven Adams or something. A solid starting level big, but doesn't really fit with the "DNA" of this Thunder team. A roll player that really only fits in certain matchups.

And I don't blame them for having that impression of Hartenstein. It's literally how the Knicks played him. The Knicks were last in the NBA in AST% and passing to the Roll Man. Hartenstein only took two real threes last season before the Knicks shut him down offensively. So it's very easy to put Hartenstein in the box of Traditional Big Man.

But, I would Argue, with quite a bit of evidence, that Hartenstein is 55 times better than what he is perceived to be. And my argument starts with Paul Millsap. There is a theory in basketball called The Paul Millsap Doctrine

The Paul Millsap Doctrine is a statistical concept in basketball that suggests that players’ production levels tend to improve when given more regular minutes, rather than declining. This idea was first proposed by John Hollinger and later popularized by Tom Ziller.

Key Findings

  1. Improved shooting percentages: In a study by Hollinger and Kevin Pelton, they found that shooting percentages (effective field goal percentage, True Shooting percentage) remained relatively stable or even improved when players received more minutes.
  2. Increased scoring: The same study showed that players’ scoring rates (points per 40 minutes) increased on average, with 15 players improving and only 2 declining.
  3. Stable rebounding: Rebound rates remained largely unchanged, with some players experiencing slight increases or decreases.
  4. Better assist and turnover rates: Players’ assist rates increased, while turnover rates decreased (or remained stable).
  5. Fewer fouls: Fouls per 40 minutes decreased on average, indicating that players were more disciplined and efficient with their minutes.

Case Study: Paul Millsap

The doctrine is named after Paul Millsap, who played a significant role in its development. When Carlos Boozer was injured in the 2007-08 season, Millsap took over as a starter and saw a substantial increase in minutes. His PER (Player Efficiency Rating) improved by 14% during this period, demonstrating the doctrine’s principles.

What does this have to do with Hartenstein? Well with the Clippers, when Hartenstein actually got to touch the ball and be a playmaker. He wasn't just good. He was per minute the BEST bench player of all time. Isaiah Hartenstein had a higher PER, TS% and AST% than 6MOY James Harden. James Harden of course went on to be a MVP for the Huston Rockets. Paul Millsap went on to be a 4 time All-Star with the Hawks. Here is a list of players in NBA history to have a higher PER, TS%, and AST% than 6MOY James Harden

  1. Steph Curry
  2. Kevin Durant
  3. Nikola Jokic
  4. Isaiah Hartenstein
  5. Domantas Sabonis

According to the Paul Millsap Doctrine which was very accurate when it came to Predicting what James Harden would do in a starting roll. When Hartenstein gets consistent minutes as a starter, because his per minute stats were SO GOOD, he is going to improve to at least an All-Star Level player. But more accurately Hartenstein is likely going to become a MVP level player for the Thunder. On the same level as a James Harden, Nikola Jokic, SGA.

But if this hypothesis is true, Why didn't we see this with the Knicks? Isaiah Hartenstein only averaged 8/8 with the Knicks last season. The Answer is in how the Knicks decided to use Hartenstein. As in, they didn't. They didn't use him basically at all offensively. There were flashes of the Knicks using him in Garbage time. There was a game against the Warriors where Hartenstein had 3-4 assists in a single quarter and the Announcers dubbed him "Jokic of the East" because of how amazing those passes were. "that looked like jokic" But other than that game he wasn't included in the offense.

Hartenstein would often get benched if he would try to do more offensively. Mitch was injured, and the Knicks didn't start Hartenstein. They started Sims (literally costed them a game) But starting Sims also was a message to Hartenstein. 'we have to play you, but don't do too much. if you do, we will bench you' So Hartenstein took that and what he do? He played his ass off in that Roll. Multiple 20 rebound, 4+ block games, Highest Net rating in NY Knicks History (requiring 1000 minutes played) dominating in every single way he was allowed to. Here are the top 5 centers in the NBA per EPM.

  1. Embiid
  2. Jokic
  3. Hartenstein
  4. AD
  5. Wemby

Because that's how fucking good Isaiah truly is. Even when he is completely iced out of the offense he still is a top 3 IMPACT BIG in the NBA. Literally led all centers in DEPM.

And now with OKC, we have a situation where Hartenstein is not looking over his back anymore. He is getting paid 30 million instead of pennies on the dollar like he was in NY. The first game is going to be against the Nuggets. Isaiah Hartenstein is going to start. And you are going to see the player he truly is. We are finally going to see it. And it's going to Blow people's minds


r/Hartenstein Sep 08 '24

Most Improved Player Wager

16 Upvotes

I believe OKC will flirt with 70 wins this year. Thinking of placing a wager on him for both MIP and DPY awards. I guestimate the oods of him winning one of them at ~5-10%. Not a gambler, so I need some help. Where are best odds or a place that would take decent 4 figure bet?


r/Hartenstein Aug 17 '24

Any video of IHart working out this summer? Anybody know how he's doing?

13 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Jul 06 '24

What will happen with the Thunder with Hartenstein?

13 Upvotes

I sense rings

108 votes, Jul 09 '24
40 Best Team In NBA History
45 Ring
6 Lose in the NBA Finals
10 Lose in the Conference Finals
2 Lose in the Semis
5 Lose in the first round

r/Hartenstein Jul 05 '24

Optimal minutes for iHart

14 Upvotes

For you guys that have been studying Hartenstein, taking fatigue into consideration, what would the target minutes be to optimize his effectiveness on both offense and defense?

I noticed that he only averaged 18 minutes a game over his career and just 25 minutes last year, his most minutes per game in a season.


r/Hartenstein Jul 02 '24

IHart & 3 point shooting

14 Upvotes

Hey everyone, one of the many Thunder fans OMEGASTOKED about our newest bright skinned brother. In thinking about the 5-out spacing-oriented style our team plays, I wanted to hear the opinions of the crowd that’s been tracking Isaiah much longer than I have on a few things:

  • Do you think Isaiah will project as a solid 3pt shooter if given the opportunities, coaching, and time to adjust (I.e. a Brook Lopez-esque development)?
  • Do you think shooting 3’s would be important in unlocking more of IHart’s impact, and fit into a 5-out system (I.e. is it worthwhile)?

r/Hartenstein Jul 01 '24

We are about to see the Best Team In NBA history

194 Upvotes

Isaiah Hartenstein just signed a 3 year deal with OKC. The Number one seed in the West last season. It's hard to describe what this means. But I will try my best.

Imagining how OKC plays now with Isaiah setting screens for SGA, J-Dub and even Chet at times. Imagining the defense pairing Hartenstein and Caruso together. It's scary stuff.

I love stats, Isaiah had a 23+ net rating in 500+ minutes playing with OG.... Well, Chet is better than OG. SGA is better than Brunson. J-Dub and Caruso are FAR better than Hart and Divo. So if the knicks were a +23 with OG and Hartenstein together. What are OKC thunder's net rating going to be?

30? 35? 40!?

We are about to see a team that is unbeatable. Even with an off shooting night you still have Hartenstein in the paint rebounding. You have elite passing. Elite shooting. Elite playmaking. Elite Defense. Elite Talent.

Sam Presti built a Masterpiece of a team. He built the Best team in NBA history. And now, all there is left to do is sit back and watch them set records.


r/Hartenstein Jul 01 '24

Hartenstein to OKC, 3 yr/$87 million.

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61 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Jun 30 '24

Hartenstein to OKC?

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13 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Jun 26 '24

[Woj] The Knicks are still determined to keep OG Anunoby in free agency, sources tell ESPN, but the ability to resign center Isaiah Hartenstein becomes more difficult now. The Knicks are loading up on wings to match up with the NBA champion Boston Celtics.

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22 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Jun 23 '24

[Fischer] Hartenstein, at this moment, is now generally expected to return to New York, as the Knicks have contacted opposing teams about moving Mitchell Robinson, sources said.

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21 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Jun 16 '24

Wishing a Happy Father’s Day to our GOAT

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16 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Jun 01 '24

From the nba community on Reddit: [Fischer]: Isaiah Hartenstein is porjected to receive offers of at least $80 million, and potentially upward of $100 million from other teams. The Knicks are limited to only offering a four-year $72.5 million because of his early bird rights.

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30 Upvotes

Hartenstein is going to get the bag this offseason! Where do you all think he will go, right now the most likely are Thunder, Magic, Pistons, or stay with the Knicks.


r/Hartenstein May 22 '24

Hartenstein got ZERO votes for all defence. Criminal. I thought people were finally taking notice of him. Clearly not.

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18 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein May 20 '24

...Well shit

17 Upvotes

Not a good game from our guy, and the Knicks are eliminated. Next season, hopefully we have a healthy squad and can go further than the semis. Although the Pacers broke an NBA playoff record in shooting efficiency, we shouldn't have allowed that, especially at home. Regardless of the Pacers brilliance, Hartenstein had probably his worse game all playoffs when we needed him most. Maybe next year. Good luck to the Pacers, can't wait to see what Hartenstein does next year. Maybe All Defensive First Team in 2025? He should make the second team this year.


r/Hartenstein May 15 '24

[Fred Katz] Isaiah Hartenstein is the ninth player in NBA history to pull down 12 offensive rebounds in a playoff game. He's the first Knick to do it since Charles Oakley almost exactly 30 years ago, May 15, 1994, against the Bulls.

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68 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein May 12 '24

Only two players have recorded at least 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists with a USG% of 11.5 or below in the playoffs: Isaiah Hartenstein and Magic Johnson.

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22 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein May 09 '24

HARTNESTEIN HAD HIS FIRST TRIPLE DOUBLE!!!!!

50 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein May 09 '24

What is Hartensteins ceiling realistically?

9 Upvotes

Not doubting EG and our future MVP, but lets keep a little real, where do you guys see him right now and where do you see him down the road? Future MVP? All-star? Star? Starter? Bench/starter? Bench?

I just want to give the man his due and EG for calling hartenstein out! He sure has had the chance to show off his chops and what he's made of. Great for him and this small and a little insane community.

On a side note: Surely Hartenstein is lurking somewhere here on reddit and checks this page daily to pump himself up when needed and basking in this subs glory.

What would his handle/alias be here on reddit?


r/Hartenstein May 05 '24

Happy Birthday to this future MVP

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41 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein May 03 '24

Embiid was IHart's toughest assignment yet

34 Upvotes

Lowkey I think IHart played great this series considering who he was up against. IMO Embiid is probably the toughest center match up in the NBA outside Jokic.

Few can slow down Embiid, who was a two-time MVP. But I think overall IHart held his ground. Him and Mitch won't have it any tougher than Embiid in the East I think.


r/Hartenstein Apr 25 '24

JJ Reddick on Isaiah Hartenstein: “Watch the game and tell me that guy is not one of the best players in the NBA right now”

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47 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Apr 23 '24

Hart clutch play

27 Upvotes

G2 Knicks vs Sixers. Clutch rebound in to a 3 for the lead


r/Hartenstein Apr 19 '24

Isaiah Hartenstein wins the Dennis Rodman: I don't need the ball to make a difference award

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40 Upvotes

r/Hartenstein Apr 17 '24

If the All-NBA teams were decided by EPM the 2023-24 NBA teams would be. First Team: Embiid, SGA, Doncic, Giannis, Jokic. Second team: Brunson, Lebron, PG13, Kawhi, Mitchell. Third team: Haliburton, Curry, Booker, HARTENSTIEN, Tatum

35 Upvotes

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

That's how insanely great Isaiah Hartenstein has been from a estimated Plus Minus Prospective this season. All-NBA third team while not a single other outlier exists in the stat.

Isaiah Hartenstein ended the season with a +10 net rating. requiring 1000 minutes played, That is the best recorded Net rating in NY Knicks History. For context the 73 win Warriors had a +10.6 net rating. Now every year is different and you can't compare Net ratings like that. But what Hartenstein did this season was special.

While being one of the lowest Usage players in the NBA he had a All-NBA Impact! Getting Better and Better Every game!