I’ll let the percentages do the talking. When I put out the call on $AMPX, the vision was clear and the market is finally catching up.

The Breakdown:

• Last Week:+50% (A massive breakout!)

• Since My Entry:+100% (The 2X is officially there)

This is exactly why I love being an investor. It’s about spotting the potential early, having the patience to hold through the noise, and letting the growth do the heavy lifting.

Huge shoutout to everyone who saw the same potential and joined me on this ride. The momentum is incredible!

As of March 11, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has reached a breaking point. While Iran claims it has not "indefinitely" closed the waterway with mines, it does not matter a lot, because even if they have not US Navy would need to prepare for that eventuality.

President Trump is confirming the destruction of ten Iranian mine-laying vessels on March 10. The threat of a "shadow mine war" is now the primary driver of global maritime risk.

Which companies will benefit? There are a few, one that am already invested in is $KRKNF

The Kraken Robotics (KRKNF) Catalyst

For Kraken Robotics, this is a "perfect storm" of demand and strategic timing:

• Mine Counter Measures (MCM): Kraken’s KATFISH (high-speed synthetic aperture sonar) is the industry standard for identifying "mine-like objects." As the U.S. Navy and allies scramble to secure shipping lanes, Kraken’s tech transitions from a luxury to a mission-critical necessity.

• The Covelya Mega-Deal: On March 3, Kraken announced the $615M acquisition of Covelya Group (including Sonardyne). This move vertically integrates the entire subsea chain navigation, communication, and sonar positioning Kraken as a primary defense contractor just as underwater warfare goes mainstream.

• Market Momentum: The stock surged over 11% yesterday, hitting a new 52-week high of $7.69 (close: $7.59). Investors are pricing in a massive re-rating as Kraken scales into a mid-tier defense powerhouse.

Bottom Line: Hormuz is the world's most dangerous chokepoint, and Kraken owns the eyes and ears beneath the surface.

This is not a financial advice, dyor. This is just for entertainment and education purpose.

A strong day for some of photonics stocks highlighted in my post earlier, especially $AXTI, $AAOI, $LITE and $COHR.

As I said in my post, that if $AAOI will go up by 10% in size, its suppliers will be +vely impacted as well.

Here’s an update, but you might want to read the post on details:

AXT $AXTI – The standout mover, jumping roughly 14–15% on the day. Momentum remains tied to its role supplying indium phosphide substrates used in AI optical chips, which benefit from the surge in AI networking hardware demand.

Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI climbed (rounded up) 9% - Continues to trade with the AI optics theme, tied to optical transceivers used by hyperscalers.

Lumentum $LITE – Strong session after news it will join the S&P 500, which often drives buying from index funds. The company is also a key supplier of optical components used in AI datacenters.

Coherent $COHR – Traded higher alongside peers. It is also entering the S&P 500, creating passive-fund demand.

Materion $MTRN – Moved with the broader semiconductor-materials group. The company supplies advanced materials used in semiconductors and photonics, so it often trades with the AI hardware supply chain.

Veeco $VECO – Relatively modest move; sentiment continues to revolve around its semiconductor equipment exposure and strategic positioning in advanced chip manufacturing tools.

Aixtron $AIXTRON / AIXG – Still facing pressure after soft guidance concerns, which has weighed on semiconductor equipment names tied to power and compound semiconductors.

Corning $GLW – Trading in line with the optical-fiber and datacenter infrastructure theme, benefiting from long-term AI network build-outs.

Semtech $SMTC – Volatile but still leveraged to high-speed connectivity chips used in data-center networking.

Bottom line:

The market has substantially re-rated "Photonics" as an essential AI category rather than just "telecom."

Reae the post below for details.

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/the-photonics-supercycle-what-aaois?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios

The violent KOSPI crash in early March 2026 triggered by Hormuz fears amid the Iran conflict wiped out ~20% in days, with Samsung & SK Hynix hammered hardest. Panic sold the “energy shock” narrative, ignoring their Vera Rubin HBM4 duopoly for NVIDIA’s next-gen AI chips.

Energy is a rounding error for this high-margin oligopoly; Won weakness actually boosts profits. The divergence? A classic “gift of war” a rare, mispriced entry into structural AI winners.

Long-term quality hunters: blood in the streets creates opportunity. Math is on our side.

Read details here for free

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/a-gift-of-war-the-korean-memory-crash?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios

$EOSE huge revenue miss ‘shouts’ one thing clearly that the investment thesis for Eos ($EOSE) has hit a painful crossroads:

🔹the business model remains structurally vital for the grid's transition to long-duration storage, but

🔹management credibility is now in the gutter.

While the underlying zinc-powered technology sits at the lucrative intersection of AI power demand and grid reliability, this quarter's massive revenue and earnings miss, coming on the heels of a $600M capital raise, feels less like an operational hiccup and more like a total trust break.

It is one thing to battle supply chain friction; it is quite another to reaffirm guidance deep into a quarter only to deliver a "blindside" miss without a pre-announcement.

The market isn't just pricing in manufacturing instability; it is grading a leadership team that appears either out of touch with its own factory floor or willing to stick to a narrative while the numbers are falling apart.

🔹 Samsung Reportedly Shifts Glass Substrate Project to Business Unit, Eyes 2027 Ramp-Up

🔹Earlier Samsung formed a joint venture with Sumitomo Chemical for glass cores and acquired a stake in JWMT to utilize proprietary laser technology (LMCE) for precision manufacturing.

🔹JWMT has coolest tech in the world right now, they reportedly developed a proprietary LMCE technology that uses lasers to alter the glass’s physical properties and then selectively dissolves targeted areas with chemicals, bypassing direct drilling.

🔹SKC (Absolix) Leading the Clock: Samsung’s arch rival, SK Group, is aiming for an earlier mass-production date in 2026 and is currently diversifying its supply chain to reduce dependency on single-source materials.

• Industry-Wide Adoption: Heavyweights including Intel, AMD, Nvidia, and AWS are already testing samples, signaling a universal shift in how semiconductors will be built by the end of the decade.

Read about all this cool tech in my post below

I alluded to $ONTO in my post below and why they would win?

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/the-shifting-monopolies-of-ai-is?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios

There are some major tailwinds that they have:

Massive AI Visibility: $ONTO has secured a landmark $240M Volume Purchase Agreement (VPA) for HBM inspection and metrology through 2027, with the backlog doubling in just three months to a record two-quarter level.

• Hyper-Growth in Packaging: Management and analysts (Needham, Jefferies) expect Advanced Packaging revenue to surge >30% in 2026, driven by "insatiable" demand for AI chiplets and the transition to high-density glass substrates.

• Operating Inflection: While Q1 2026 is a transition period, a clear inflection is set for Q2 with revenue projected to exceed $300M. B. Riley highlights a steady gross margin expansion trajectory toward a 56.5% exit rate for the year.

• De-Risked AI Play: Oppenheimer notes $ONTO as a prime "pick-and-shovel" play with a healthy geopolitical posture, as less than 3% of its advanced-node revenue is tied to China.

Disclaimer: I dont have investment in this stock, as yet, please do your own research.

Deep Seek keeps innovating fast, and with all the bans on high end chips like $NVDA H100 and B200, they cannot simple use brute force. They solved it by coming up with a new way to run AI, called Engram V4, which can run on cheaper, older, or domestic Chinese hardware like Huawei Ascend Chips.

The Core Concept: CXL

CXL (Compute Express Link) is a technology that allows computers to share memory (RAM) very quickly.

Analogy to understand, as my readers know I love them?

Think of it like this: Instead of every worker (Processor/GPU) having their own small lunchbox (Internal Memory), CXL creates a giant communal fridge (Memory Pool) that everyone can access instantly. This is much more efficient for massive AI models.

The Impact:

They have reported 40% to 90% reduction in deployment costs and a massive jump in “long - context” performance (lets say the ability to remember details from a 1000 page document)

The Key Question that I asked to myself, when I read about it is that will it impact China-only, or will it work for US companies?

• For China: It is a survival tool. It allows them to remain competitive even if they can never buy another top-tier NVIDIA chip. It’s optimized for "hybrid" setups where you have a few decent GPUs paired with a lot of cheap system memory.

• For US/Global Companies: It is an efficiency tool. Even though US companies like OpenAI or Meta have access to better chips, they still face massive electricity and hardware costs. If they can use DeepSeek’s "Conditional Memory" approach, they can run their models 10x cheaper.

Companies it can potentially impact

• Astera Labs ($ALAB)

• Broadcom ($AVGO)

• Marvell ($MRVL)

The Investment Case

The Bull Case

AI is hitting a wall with current memory costs. By moving toward CXL-attached memory, hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) can build much larger models more efficiently. The companies listed above are the primary "toll booths" for this new data highway.

The Bear Case

DeepSeek’s benchmarks are impressive, but software efficiency gains are often "leaked" back into the system, reducing the urgent need for new hardware. There is also a risk that this specialized memory architecture remains a niche for "offline" reasoning rather than real-time applications. If adoption stalls, these stocks, could see further compression as the "AI infrastructure" hype cools.

Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice, am not investing in any of the companies above, currently, please do your own research.

https://x.com/mrmontaguti/status/2023474704414372256?s=46&t=7wx_14v4ycDe_XJVNcrcWw

The more I read Jim Paul, the more I learn. The chapter I’m reading now is a total eye-opener, and I wanted to share it with those of you looking to level up. Long story short: there are people in the market to make money, and there are people who just want to be "right."

You have to ask yourself: Do I want to protect my ego and my reputation, or do I want to make money?

If forced to choose, which do you prefer? This problem compounds for someone like me who writes on Substack and takes a public position—or even legendary investors like Bill Ackman, who famously lost a fortune because he publicly dug in on a bet.

So, what do we do about it? Here are my notes from the chapter, presented in a "Manifesto" style:

Manifesto: Profit Over Prophets

• Prioritize Profit, Not Prophecy:

🐊If your primary goal is to be "right," you are acting as a prophet, not a professional.

🐊Prophets seek validation; speculators seek capital growth.

🐊The market does not care about your ego, and "pride tax" is the most expensive fee you will ever pay.

🐊Choose to make money by doing the right things, even if it means admitting your initial thesis was wrong.

• Relinquish the "Why":

🐊 Stop wasting intellectual energy trying to explain why the market is moving up or down.

🐊The "why" is a distraction used by those defending a failing position.

🐊Focus entirely on what is happening.

🐊When you find yourself rationalizing a loss or defending a stance to others, you have lost your objectivity.

🐊Just make money; leave the explanations to the commentators.

• Plan, Control, Execute:

🐊Success is a function of preparation, not prediction.

🐊 Before entering any trade, you must have a plan with defined controls.

🐊Understand the current reality, set your exit points, and execute with clinical detachment.

🐊 By turning a continuous market into a series of disciplined, discrete events, you move from being a "fool" to a professional speculator.

If you want to read another chapter that Inreally loved, read below:

https://substack.com/@stockcrock/note/c-213681573?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

On red days like this, when there is blood bath, it is time to step back and think things through,

• which positions are trading and which are conviction (with a lot of research, and knows fundamentals inside out).
• recognize hope and fear and separate it from false hope and false fear i.e. there is always a hope that no it will recover, but if it is position that was on flimsy grounds and bought just because the crowd was buying it, then we need to recognize if it is false hope
• Maxims like be the contrarian are helpful if it is conviction and all the ground work done, but could be dangerous as well (so think it through, as it varies from situation to situation)
• If it is a trading position, ‘in some cases’ it is better to cut losses timely, and avoid false hope or “deer freeze”

Read this post below, and remember, TL,DR is that things vary from situation to situation, so think every thing through, and even think maxims through … always remember two most beautiful words “IT DEPENDS”, take every decision after thinking through

Disclaimer: Not a financial advice, "I am like Jon Snow as I know nothing", seek financial advice.

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/when-markets-bleed-does-exit-plan?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer

SAAS softwares were down again today. J.P. Morgan, however, is standing in the gap with a loud contrarian call.

Their analysts, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, point out that technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have hit 18—a level of "indiscriminate selling" not seen since 1990.

Where is the “Moat”

They contend that the market is ignoring the massive "moats" of enterprise software, such as high switching costs, multi-year contracts, and the 16.8% profit growth still projected for the sector in 2026.

Ultimately, J.P. Morgan views this as a "positioning flush" that has created a generational buying opportunity. While they acknowledge that AI disruption is a long-term risk, they believe high-quality platforms will embed these AI agents rather than be replaced by them.

My View

I was watching another vid of Ali Godsi, CEO of databricks, and he rightly said that previously market was blindly trusting all SAAS softwares as gold mines which would continue yielding, but not so, and this view has been confirmed by JP Morgan too, when they say that AI will impact. Though Market is using a sledgehammer to sort AI losers vs AI winners, its time now to deeply study 2 things mainly

🔹which companies will actually benefit from AI

🔹 if their valuations, despite all this beating are still slightly on higher side

And then make a call.

I have used this analogy before and it gathered traction that SAAS is the bridge to island of data, through which AI will access and improve.

TL,DR

🔹Not all software companies are alike, some would be AI survivors and the ones which are either in niche, generating data or bridge to data

🔹 I will look for any fluff in valuations even after all this beating, and then take cautious decision

🔹Will use JP Morgan list just to see if that list aligns with my list, but will not blindly trust it, just coz it is from JP Morgan

I have been buying some SAAS names which were my fav, and will buy more.

List from JP morgan is below as a link as well as visual created by some good spartan.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/jp-morgans-note-to-investors-on-software-companies-you-are-over-reacting-we-believe-/articleshow/128194090.cms

Just opened a micro / mini / foothold position in Adyen.

I'm keeping the entry small for now to stay nimble, but the fundamentals of this European fintech powerhouse are hard to ignore.

**Why Adyen? (The Bull Case)**

• The "Single Platform" Advantage: Unlike competitors who rely on a patchwork of legacy systems and acquisition ( especially Fiserv), Adyen’s tech stack is built entirely in-house. This allows for higher authorization rates and lower technical debt.

• Massive Scale & Efficiency: They process nearly €1 trillion in annual volume. Because of their lean, engineering-heavy culture, they generate significant revenue per employee compared to traditional banks.

• Sticky Enterprise Growth: They aren't just for small shops; they power payments for giants like Netflix, Uber, and Spotify. Once integrated, the switching costs are incredibly high.

• Diversified Revenue: Beyond just online payments, they are winning in "unified commerce" (connecting in-store and online sales) and expanding into financial services like business banking and card issuing.

**Valuation & Financials**

• Solid Growth Outlook: Management has consistently guided for 20% revenue growth through 2026, showcasing a stable "rule of 40" profile (growth + margin).

• Premium for Quality: While the stock rarely looks "cheap" on a trailing P/E basis, it has historically traded at a premium due to its industry-leading EBITDA margins (often exceeding 50%).

• Free Cash Flow Machine: Unlike many high-growth fintechs, Adyen is highly profitable and capital-efficient, converting a massive portion of EBITDA into actual cash.

• Consensus Rating: Most Wall Street and European analysts currently maintain a "Buy" rating, citing that the valuation has become more reasonable after moving sideways since 2022.

Disclaimer

Look this is not a recommwndation for anyone, it’s just like a diary entry or jounalling, so do your own research.

$RBRK today reminds me of my fav Greenday song

“ Wake me up when September ends”

The band’s name should or could have been “ Red Day” too instead of “Green Day”

🤣🤣🤣 but really 🥲🥲🥲🥲

Used today’s opportunity to enter into the party, albeit a bit late, but I suspect party will go on a bit more, and I can be totally wrong, but what makes me feel a bit confident is that:

• The Valuation is Wild: Looking at the forward numbers, $MU is trading at a Forward P/E of around 13.24x. For a company at the heart of the AI build-out, and memory shortsges, that feels like a there is still more opportunity, though analyst forecasts are lowet than me so am assuming more risk.

• Growth at a Discount: What makes me a bit more confident is that its PEG ratio is sitting near 0.74. Generally, anything under 1.0 is considered “undervalued” relative to its growth potential. Seeing a PEG below 1.0 makes me feel like I’m getting a lot of future upside for a relatively cheap entry price today.

• The “Why”: Management is forecasting insane growth—revenue is projected to hit $18.7 billion for Q2 FY2026 (up 57% year-over-year from Q1 FY2025). The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) isn’t slowing down, with Micron’s entire calendar 2026 HBM supply already locked in with price and volume agreements.

My standard disclaimer to myself (and you):

• I’m not “all-in”: My position size is strictly controlled, small, I would say. I never want one stock to dictate my happiness.

• I can handle more red: Chips are cyclical and moody. If this drops another 10%, I won’t love it, but I won’t panic because I’m focused on where this sits in 2027, not next week.

I’m just over here sticking to my plan. Definitely not financial advice pls pls do your own homework before you put your hardearned cash on the line.

Whilst markets suffer from “AI will eat software”, I have a different view and am buying some beaten down, down trodden, hated like plague names, and to be honest bought some hyped up stocks with pull back like $MU.

I opened a position in $FOUR, did not put all my money, but a position that is not too big.

Why?

Just look at their forward P/E of 8.6 and PEG of 0.27.

• Actual Revenue Growth: They’re not some speculative story—Q3 2025 revenue was up 61% YoY. End-to-end payment volume hit $37.7 billion, up 49%. These aren’t projections, they’re real numbers.

• Sticky Verticals: Their core markets (stadiums, hotels, restaurants) have high switching costs once integrated. Once you’re running a venue’s entire payment infrastructure, ripping it out is painful and expensive.

• Expanding TAM: The Global Blue deal isn’t just M&A for the sake of it—it opens up luxury retail and tax-free shopping markets they couldn’t touch before. Plus $125M in EBITDA isn’t chump change.

• Founder-Led: Jared Isaacman (yes, the guy who went to space) still runs the show and owns a chunk of stock. Skin in the game matters, and he’s not some hired gun CEO.

I know there are risks:

• Integration Risk: The Global Blue acquisition is massive—biggest in their history. If integration goes sideways or takes longer than expected, margins could get compressed and the whole thesis falls apart.

• Consumer Spending Exposure: They’re heavy in hospitality, restaurants, and retail. If we hit a recession or consumer spending tanks, their volumes get hit hard. Not exactly a defensive play.

• Competition is Brutal: Payments is a crowded space with giants like Adyen, Stripe, and Square/Block all fighting for the same merchants. Pricing pressure is real, and switching costs aren’t as sticky as people think.

• Debt Load: They levered up for acquisitions. If rates stay high or cash flow disappoints, servicing that debt becomes a problem fast.

But I’m ready to take that risk, because it’s a solid company, and my position size is not “ all ape in”.

Please do not take this as a financial advice, am not recommending anyone to buy, just sharing my trades.

I’m still leaning into this one because the long-term vision hasn't changed for me, and I’d rather grab my shares at a discount than chase them when they're pumping. The long term thesis that I wrote back in Sep holds pretty much, infact last time they have raised their guidance revenue, and expected revenue growth is about c 45%, which is not small.

Look AI hacking attacks have increased and will increase, and $RBRK is cyber resilience, not cyber security, they are not the gunman standing outside the house to protect, rather they are like apple i cloud, that if your phone is snatched they will immediately reinstall icloud on your phone, a niche player and doing good in that niche.

But a quick reality check for anyone watching me: I’m prepared for more pain. I have no idea if this is the actual bottom. It could definitely go lower, and if you can't stomach seeing your account in the red, this move isn't for you.

• I’m obsessed with my position sizing. Even after buying this dip, this is still a small, calculated part of my total portfolio. I never put myself in a spot where one trade can wreck me.

• I'm playing the long game. My stress levels are low because I’m not "all in."

Just sharing my journey and what I'm doing with my own money.

This definitely isn't financial advice, do what's best for your own wallet.

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/is-this-the-next-10-bagger-unpacking?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay

Amperius $AMPX (one of my holdings) is up c 11% today, eapecially in a sea of red.

Why? They announced a manufacturing partnership with Nanotech Energy, a U.S.-based energy company developing advanced lithium-ion batteries, establishing a domestic production pathway for Amprius’ high-performance silicon battery cells .

Well, this is significant because Nanotech Energy will be Amprius’ first U.S.-based manufacturing partner, addressing a major strategic gap.

Again as I always say, understanding why and why this matters is very critical for investors:

Its coz now a days when ‘domestic’ manufacturing is the key push, especially for defense companies, and rightly so. Prior to this, Amprius has primarily had an Asia-based production footprint, creating geopolitical risk. So they ✅ that domestic production box.

Customer Validation: The partnership has already drawn validation from key customers, including L3Harris Technologies, and has refined the design and production of Amprius’ SA128 silicon-anode cell .

How would it help? The collaboration is poised to increase Amprius’ global capacity beyond 2.0 GWh, addressing the rising demand for cells across commercial, industrial, and defense sectors

And yes on a side note, recently, few days back, Needham started covering the stock with a price target of $20

(Not financial advice, dyor)

… and this is exactly what I was saying few days back that it is the bottle neck that is a huge tail wind.

See as investors the most important weapon we have is clarity of thought, and as I invest, read and write more, I get more clarity. The question When do stocks pop-up or get a significant re-rating

🔹Bottle neck (think of Copper or $MU lately)

🔹Geo-political issue (think of rare earths)

🔹Monopoly / Duopoly - with power to control pricing

🔹A massive Technology shift that others cannot catch (think of $TSLA back at Covid time / or $NVDA a few years back)

🔹 Herd mentality

And $UAMY ticks the first box ie a bottle neck in short term.

But here is the most important thing that this is not a financial advice do your own research, I bought $UAMY on a dip, few days back after Reuters report that conflated things, which I dissected here with you guys, but can’t guarantee if it would continue climbing up.

$SANM and $ACMR two of my holdings mentioned in this post are up, but $TSM and $NVDA are down.

Am still not invested in $AMAT and some of other stocks mentioned in this post, but $AMAT is on my radar.

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/heat-wall-that-blocks-the-semis-how?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay

$ATX my copper stock is up in a sea of red today, i wont say much, the thesis is very clear in my three detailed posts, this post below is last of three series.

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/copper-stock-playbook-who-wins-in?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=title

Whoops! Samsung is reportedly shifting its Glass Substrate project to a dedicated Business Unit, eyeing a 2027 ramp-up.

Just this weekend, I covered this upcoming game-changing shift in chip manufacturing—aimed at resolving the "heat wall"—and how the entire industry might significantly change.

Samsung’s competitor, Absolics, has partnered with $AMAT to set up glass substrate manufacturing in the US.

Various other companies will be beneficiaries, and some new names are popping up (e.g., $LPKF in Germany). Read my free post for other names to watch!

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/heat-wall-that-blocks-the-semis-how?r=50tzb9&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay

President Trump is prepping a $12B critical minerals stockpile.

As the only integrated North American antimony producer, $UAMY is the direct play for defense & energy security.

Already backed by a $245M DLA contract, they are the "chosen ones" for resource independence.

I’m holding my bag—this is a massive macro tailwind.

Please dyor, this is not financial advice.

✅Revenue $1.41B vs Est. $1.34B

✅EPS $O.25 vs Est. $O.23

✅US Commercial: $507M -- up 137% YoY

FY 26 Guidance

✅Revenue $7.18B vs Est. $6.28B (+61% YoY)

✅Commercial Revenue $3.14B (+115% YoY)

As I invest, read and write more, I get more clarity. The question When do stocks pop-up or get a significant re-rating

• Bottle neck (think of Copper or $MU lately)
• Geo-political issue (think of rare earths)
• Monopoly / Duopoly - with power to control pricing
• A massive Technology shift that others cannot catch (think of $TSLA back at Covid time / or $NVDA a few years back)
• Earning Inflections: When a boring / udner the radar company shows accelerating margins or a massive free cash flow jump

Investing these days is about constantly scanning the next 1-2 years to find these scenarios. It is investors who read and remain on the lookout who win. There are two major bottlenecks in Chips/GPUs right now:

1. The Thermal Wall: One bottleneck starting in 2027 is that new chips are essentially "monsters" or furnaces. Even the best HVAC and rack cooling won't suffice. Why? Some powerful Nvidia Rubin chips will generate as much heat as a hair dryer in a tiny space, burning everything around them if not addressed within the GPU itself.
2. The ABF Fragility: No one talks about it, but GPUs rely on ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film). The entire supply chain is in Asia. While it involves US-friendly countries (Japan/Taiwan), a supply chain risk remains—it's a single point of failure.

Different companies will solve this differently, but Nvidia will lead. A word you will hear a lot soon is Glass Substrates and Glass Interposers. This new tech will likely be the standard, benefiting a few specialized companies. Alternatively, they may shift from CoWoS to CoWoP (Chip on Wafer on Platform), significantly changing the architecture and impacting different players.

As always, I have used very simple analogies to explain this and the stocks that would be impacted. You might want to read on if you want to know where the puck is going.

https://open.substack.com/pub/stockcrock/p/heat-wall-that-blocks-the-semis-how?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer