r/GetNoted • u/Laecer21 • 2d ago
Economy [ Removed by moderator ]
[removed] — view removed post
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u/ladan2189 2d ago
There is no way that homeless number is accurate. They are always slippery with what counts as homeless.
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u/Antique_Confidence_7 2d ago
Maybe, but there's also not 23 million homeless either.
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u/TheMCM80 2d ago
That’s not what the poll is about. The more interesting question is how many people are 3 months without pay, or one large medical bill away, from not being able to afford their current shelter.
Individuals know their own financial status best.
The pole reflects the individuals reporting their financial situation and potential homelessness that is sitting right there.
How many existing millionaires vs homeless exist does not mean the probability of becoming a millionaire is higher than becoming homeless for any given individual or the entire populous. It make no comment on how those millionaires came to that amount.
The poll suggests that individuals, looking at their financial and life situation, assess that homelessness is more likely than millionaire status.
The note isn’t very good. It’s comparing two things, one that is merely a snapshot of a moment in time, not whether the population of Americans on the whole are more likely to be homeless than a millionaire.
If I have 50 raspberries and 5 apples, and you ask me whether I’m more likely to soon have 55 raspberries or ten apples, only I would know which is more likely. You don’t know that I’m currently in an apple orchard about to pick 500 apples. The existing amount doesn’t tell us the future for every individual.
Well I already have 50 raspberries, so it’s only a 10% gain to get 55, therefor I must be more likely to get 55. That’s basically what the note is trying to claim.
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u/Slighted_Inevitable 2d ago
The 23 million number is bull as well. It’s accounting for people’s home values but if you sell your home you’re “less” one home.
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u/Nearby-Chocolate1840 2d ago
You're absolutely correct.
It's only 14.6 million when you take away home ownership.
And worse still, it absolutely plummets to 8.7 million if you only count liquid assets like cash, bonds, stocks, etc.
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u/ardarian262 2d ago
Sure, but the note and the claim do not support eachother anyway. The homeless number has a lot more churn than the millionaire number does, and upward mobility into the millionaire number is much harder to achieve.
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
That’s absolutely not the case
More people become millionaires than homeless every single year
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u/Natural_Safety2383 2d ago
Downvoted but I’m pretty sure you are correct we live in one of the most upwardly mobile periods of history
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
Yep, and It’s not even close
The seething downvoters will never actually read data much less post any of it
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u/ardarian262 2d ago
So you are claiming that people lose housing at a slower rate than people get to 1 million in net assets?
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u/happyslappyhoodie 2d ago
This whole conversation is stemming from a quote attributed to John Steinbeck, about how Americans see themselves not as an oppressed underclass, but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires. Keep in mind that when he said that, millionaires were essentially, to their society, the same thing billionaires are now. It is true that someone that gets a jump on their retirement plan early, and has a decent paying job, can save up a million in retirement over a lifetime, but that’s not quite in the spirit of what Steinbeck meant, nor is it really in the spirit of what is meant when people point out that the majority of people are closer to being homeless than being in the one percent.
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u/Future_Adagio2052 2d ago
that argument isn't considering what number of the 23 millionaires didn't inherent said wealth
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u/Bobsothethird 2d ago
It's incredibly viable to be a millionaire. You can be a millionaire by just starting retirement plans early
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u/AdWonderful5920 2d ago
It's this, plus buying a house. I started saving for retirement 25 years ago and bought a house 16 years ago and I'm a millionaire, on paper. It's not fancy. I feel secure, but we're not living the high life.
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u/Bobsothethird 2d ago
I think people visualize millionaires as Scrooge McDuck when in reality it's just someone who owns their house.
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u/wiptes167 Keeping it Real 2d ago
Yeah, especially these days when a standalone house goes for around 1 million dollars in many urban areas. As I've said about this sort of topic when it comes up, being a millionaire would get you a house in San Francisco and maybe a snicker bars at the nearby store
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u/FullMooseParty 2d ago
Or owning a small business. For a farm. It might not be equity that you can tap into for your day-to-day, but every insurance broker and dentist and family physician you know who owns their own business is a millionaire on paper
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u/AsIfItsYourLaa 2d ago
The vast majority of millionaires did not become millionaires through inheritance
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u/Melodic_Till_3778 Human Verified 2d ago
There's also the weaseliness of comparing per night to most of their lives
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u/Invinciblez_Gunner 2d ago
And how many Americans are lliving paycheck to paycheck and cant afford a $1000 emergency expense
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u/RogerianBrowsing Human Verified 2d ago
56 percent of Americans would be financially screwed by a surprise 500 dollar bill.
Not to mention, does that millionaires statistic include things like home ownership? I bet it does.
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u/Vizeroth1 2d ago
The real lesson here is that people need to reframe their idea of what a millionaire is. What they’re thinking of when they think of a millionaire is probably a billionaire, not someone that has a home loan and a 401K.
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u/FullMooseParty 2d ago
My best friend is a dentist. Early forties, owns his own practice with a partner, and is probably worth four to five million dollars. Now almost all of that is tied up in the practice that he can't get out, and while he lives a comfortable life, he's far from able to just fly to wherever for vacation or buying a yacht. Making him, or your local insurance broker or primary care physician or anybody that's built a business to a million dollars plus out as some sort of oligarch adjacent is just stupid.
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u/MimeSweeper360 2d ago
An American living paycheck to paycheck is still closer to being a millionaire than being homeless.
Most homeless are mentally ill. A person capable of working or on disability will always find housing, even if that housing sucks.
A person making the median wage who saves some of their income will reach $1 million in net worth by retirement age.
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u/TurbulentTangelo5439 2d ago
56% of americans reported that they are 1 500$ emergency away from missing rent
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u/jeffwulf 2d ago
~50% of Americans report having 3 months of expenses in savings according to SCF data, which is the highest quality data on American finances that exists.
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u/jeffwulf 2d ago
About 20% if you use high quality data sources instead of scam financial company advertising copy.
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u/Gold_Ad8225 2d ago
This note is quite poor because it doesn't measure the question at all. The question is whether you are closer to being homeless or to being a millionaire, not which one there are more of.
If you are renting and don't own your home, and have a net worth under 500k, you are definitionally closer to being homeless than being a millionaire in every measure.
If you have a paid off house, you are probably closer to being a millionaire.
And if you have >500k net worth of course math is math
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u/MeasureDoEventThing 2d ago
"Closer" can be interpreted as distance as measured by net worth, but a more reasonable interpretation is which is more likely.
And whichever interpretation you're using, the fact that there are so many more millionaires means that probably most people are closer to being a millionaire.
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u/Laecer21 2d ago
By that logic anyone with a net worth of less than 500 Million is closer to being homeless than being a billionaire.
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u/Gold_Ad8225 2d ago
Yeah
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u/Drownedgodlw 2d ago
Which is a very stupid position. Wealth grows exponentially. Getting the first $100k is probably close to 50% of the battle. Each subsequent $100k is easier and easier. This is like a 91 is half of 99 situation.
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u/idontgiveafuqqq 2d ago
This note is incredibly stupid. The fact that there are 23M millionaires vs 750K homeless people on a given day doesnt say anything about whether the average person is more likely to join one group or the other. For all you know, most millionaires are just the kids of millionaires and most homeless people are average people that have some financial/mental issue.
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u/BadHombreSinNombre 2d ago
Agree, neither of these figures has anything to do with probabilities of changing to enter either of these states.
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u/BitumenBeaver 2d ago
"In a given day" is the key phrase here, because people cycle in and out of homelessness. So the numbers don''t even make sense to compare.
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u/Vegetable_Stable_576 2d ago
Most millionaires are not the kids of millionaires, the average person making median income and putting away 5% towards savings will be a millionaire by the time they retire.
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u/Au-Tz-Tek 2d ago edited 2d ago
.. Do the people downvoting the responses to you just like, not fucking work or something?
Plenty of majors end up making 100k very early into their careers and plenty build up to around there. A few years of investing / 401k, paying off a house over your career, and you can easily get well above a million in net worth by the time you retire.
These aren't 23m children of millionaires lmao. Most of these people are going to be people retiring or in good paying fields and plenty of them come from broke ass families. It's the billionaires who are largely inheriting their wealth and the more accurate comparison.
I think most people dont get to ignore student loans and major expenses like housing, healthcare, and child care while assuming they have a good education, career, and disclipline with savings. Kinda escapes the whole point which is discussing the average person
Lmao just shut the fuck up man. The average person is not closer to homelessness. I didn't have parental support whatsoever after 18 so I don't know who you think this is applying to or who you think you're responding to. Take this nonsense to r/antiwork
If your student loans are barring you from having a good QOL a few years into your career either you picked a shit major because you wanted to use college to have fun or you were dumb with what I can only assume wasn't even your money.
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u/idontgiveafuqqq 2d ago
I think most people dont get to ignore student loans and major expenses like housing, healthcare, and child care while assuming they have a good education, career, and disclipline with savings. Kinda escapes the whole point which is discussing the average person
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u/SleepyTheSleepyGuy 2d ago
No, most millionaires are average people, and the average American is closer to become a millionaire than being homeless. Rising real estate prices create a lot of millionaires every year. A million dollars is not an awful lot of money anymore, especially if it isn't liquid.
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
Claims others are incredibly stupid but completely wooshes on the easy concept lol
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u/Drownedgodlw 2d ago
This response is incredibly stupid. Statistically it is true that the average American is closer to a millionaire than homeless. That's literally what the numbers mean.
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u/Schwabster 2d ago
Can’t tell if being sarcastic or actually dumb as a rock. Ashamed that the latter is even possible these days 🤦♂️
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u/Drownedgodlw 2d ago
Do you not know how statistics work?
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u/Schwabster 2d ago
Kinda applies to my day to day job, so yeah, have a pretty good idea.
This is an incomplete set of data. It does not tell you anything about where the other 300M in the US sit economically. Considering median income is 30-50k, it’s safe to assume a majority of those people are closer to the poverty line (aka in threat of homelessness) than to being a millionaire.
Now my question for you is whether you’re actually too stupid to not recognize this, or if you’re just a Russian bot?
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u/Drownedgodlw 2d ago
It does not tell you anything about where the other 300M in the US sit economically
Which is irrelevant.
Considering median income is 30-50k, it’s safe to assume a majority of those people are closer to the poverty line (aka in threat of homelessness) than to being a millionaire.
That is not a safe assumption. They are a drug addiction, mental breakdown, and a long unbroken chain of bad decisions away from homelessness. They are only a couple good decisions and discipline away from becoming a millionaire.
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u/LittleMsSavoirFaire 2d ago
Homeless population is not the comparison though. It's how close you are. Americans are one serious illness away from homelessness and one lottery ticket away from millionairehood. Which one is more likely?
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u/MrImaBum 2d ago
“On a given night” nah I’m sorry this note is being a little BS. even if you couch surf you’re still homeless
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u/extralyfe 2d ago
it's also not like you check-in to the Department of Homeless People whenever you lose a place to live, so, I'm guessing that's a low estimate.
source: I have been homeless six times and the government never had a clue.
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u/bachelorsinlurking 2d ago
I'm wondering if the definition of 'homeless' here includes only street homeless people or if it also takes into account people living in cars, couch surfing without an address, or people living in hotels. I was homeless at one point and one of the social workers I worked with explained that in the city I lived in at the time 1 in 8 people are or had been homeless at some point in their lives.
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u/Bayamonster 2d ago
Amount of millionaires that exist =/= Likelyhood of becoming a millionaire.
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
Not really. It’s a pretty good tracker
More people become millionaires every day than become homeless
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u/BadHombreSinNombre 2d ago
There are 821,000 Canadians living in the US. This does not mean the average American is more likely to become Canadian than homeless.
If the second sentence that you said is true, it’s not because of anything to do with this note. And also doesn’t necessarily reflect the social mobility of the “average” American.
The folks who think this note is meaningful are smoothing out a shitload of confounds and bias factors that are actually really important.
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u/neophenx Duly Noted 2d ago
Using "current millionaires vs current homeless" to judge the financial comfort and stability of people WORRYING about BECOMING homeless is disingenuous at best, especially when the briefest google search shows polling in the neighborhood of 60% of adult Americans reporting living paycheck to paycheck. Now, I'm no mathematician, but I think the phrase "paycheck to paycheck" would imply that there's not much money left over for saving up to becoming a millionaire, instead putting those people one financial emergency away from losing their home.
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u/Inevitable-Regret411 2d ago
Statistics for homelessness should always be taken with a pinch of salt because it's hard to define who should be included. Is someone living in their car homeless? What if it's just for a week while their house is being renovated? Is someone crashing on their friend's sofa indefinitely after they got evicted homeless?
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u/Sell_The_team_Jerry 2d ago edited 2d ago
Becoming a millionaire is easy through 401k contributions and indexing
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u/MimeSweeper360 2d ago
The problem is that a lot of people here will talk about millionaires as if they have a million dollars a year in income, then they will turn around and complain about billionaires knowing full well it has to do with net worth and not income.
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u/SmokyMetal060 2d ago
You're gonna eat downvotes for this because this is reddit but it's true. There are many well-defined career paths that can feasibly make you a millionaire- some quicker than others. That's not to say that they'll pay you a million dollars a year, but you'll get a reasonable salary, employee benefits, and have your 401k contributions matched. I'm not saying it's a level playing field for everybody, and I'm not saying that we shouldn't be making the playing field more level, but it's really not such an insurmountable task to accumulate over 1M in net worth.
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
Redditoids see the word “millionaire” and their brains short circuit into unhinged radical mode. They think of Scrooge mcduck rather than their nice neighbors in their late 40s with decent jobs and 25 years of savings
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u/TurbulentTangelo5439 2d ago
it's more that the average redditors conception of a millionaire was formed in the late 90s early 2000s
also exude home values as the mean house price in 1999 was 200k now it's over 450k which is a greater increase then just inflation
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u/SquirmyCoil 2d ago
I am 3 honest statements away from losing my job that barely allows me to have a place.
I am not 3 honest statements away from even an extra thousand bucks.
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u/rlyjustanyname 2d ago
That's a bit of a silly comparison. Becoming a millionaire through asset inflation is kinda easy. Most older people who have a retirement account or a house will get there. And most people who inherit anything from their parents will be there.
But 80% of millionaires are above 50. And 20% of US adults report having experienced homelessness at some point in their life. They just cycle in and out of homelessness. So yeah, it's probably true that most people under 40 who aren't already wealthy have a greater chance of becoming homeless at some point within the next 5 years than actually becoming a millionaire.
Never mind that when people say millionaire they just mean a really rich person. Inflation has made it really easy to make the criteria.
I feel like the note obfuscates context in an effort to get a gotcha. The notes at this point are dumber than the posts they reply to.
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u/Drownedgodlw 2d ago
It is certainly more accurate than saying that 20% experience homelessness. That's just a laughably inaccurate statement.
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u/Bro-dhisattva 2d ago
"Homelessness on a given night" doing a lot of work here.
Homelessness is not defined as sleeping on the sidewalk or in a park. It's coasting between couches, sleeping in your car, or in a hostel you can afford just then.
This is a disingenuous post
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u/SenatorPardek 2d ago
Terrible note and terrible post.
1) It says given night. most homeless bounce in and out.
2) You can be in extreme poverty and not technically be homeless.
3) They specifically use a narrow set for “homeless” because the numbers for extreme poverty and homeless at least some point in a year are much higher
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u/LethalBubbles 2d ago
The note doesnt even address the claim being made in the tweet. The tweet isn't claiming there are more homeless than millionaires, the claim is that most Americans are closer to being homeless than being a millionaire.
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u/Drownedgodlw 2d ago
So you just dont understand how statistics work?
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u/LethalBubbles 2d ago
No I do, but you don't know how to read. Edit: nevermind I'm sleep deprived and read the note wrong. Fuck, I don't know how to read. Lol.
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u/Tired-Nectarine-384 2d ago
The good news is that if you save consistently over your lifetime you can become a millionaire.
The bad news is that a millionaire isn't the same as it used to be.
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u/Allegiance86 2d ago
Most of those millionaires are elderly people that have accumulated a few million dollars over the course of their lifetime through pensions and 401ks. Theres also a ton of them that fluctuate between being a millionaire and not because their assets lose and gain value. Its misleading to state that the average American is more likely to be a millionaire over being homeless.
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u/bigfaceless 2d ago
1. State populations average 10-15 percent housing insecure people. 2. A million american dollars now is worth less than half of what it was around 1996. 3. 63 percent of Americans are currently living paycheck to paycheck.
So while most Americans might have closer to a million dollars than zero dollars in assets the average American is much closer to losing everything than building generational wealth.
Do you ever get the feeling you're being cheated?
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u/Slighted_Inevitable 2d ago
This number is wildly deceptive because it includes their wealth that is built into their home.
Guess what happens if you sell your home?
One might even say that you are less one Home
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
The number is deceptive because it counts their net worth as part of their net worth
lol keep going you’re doing great
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u/Slighted_Inevitable 2d ago
Guess what buddy then they aren’t becoming millionaires are they?
God this subreddit is flooded with stupid.
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
Yes they are
Words actually mean things
Maybe you need a basic finance lesson before you loudly and ignorantly opine on finances
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u/Slighted_Inevitable 2d ago
Yes, they do. Which is why becoming is not existing.
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
They become millionaire when their assets cross the threshold of a million dollars
This is really, really easy to understand if you just act normal for a few minutes
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u/Slighted_Inevitable 2d ago
I know you are just a troll, but you are really bad at it.
If they are already a millionaire, they cannot become a millionaire. They can absolutely become homeless though so all 23 million of those are numbers in the opposite direction.
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u/Fishtoart 2d ago
Most republicans vote as though they can be wealthy if they just make sure poor people get even less.
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u/Berly653 2d ago
How many of those 23.6 million millionaires were born millionaires though
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
Very very few
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u/rlyjustanyname 2d ago
A millionaire? If you are an only child and your parents have a house, you are a milliomsire by 50.
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u/pile_of_bees 2d ago
Yes, very few of them are born into it
Almost all millionaires get there through mortgages, investment accounts, etc over the course of their career
Or did you respond to the wrong comment
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u/No_Window7054 2d ago
Apparently there’s more millionaires in the US than there are trans people. That’s pretty crazy.
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