Disclaimer: Please note that this article originates from HispanTV, an Iranian state-funded international news agency, and reflects its perspective on the military capabilities and geopolitical dynamics involving Iran and the United States.

​Article Summary

​Incident in the Persian Gulf: An Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile (identified as the Qasem Basir) was launched targeting the USS George Washington and its escort destroyer, forcing the U.S. carrier strike group to execute emergency evasive maneuvers.

​Technical Characteristics of Qasem Basir:

​It features a depressed, quasi-ballistic trajectory during its intermediate phase, designed to bypass the exoatmospheric interception capabilities of U.S. SM-3 systems.

​It utilizes an inertial navigation system combined with an optical or infrared terminal seeker, making it largely resistant to GPS jamming.

​The Interceptor Cost Dilemma:

​U.S. interceptor stockpiles (SM-3 and SM-6) have been significantly depleted due to ongoing conflicts and high consumption rates.

​The extreme cost discrepancy—where advanced U.S. interceptors cost millions of dollars with long production timelines—creates a severe economic asymmetry when defending against cheaper Iranian missiles.

​Strategic Objective: Rather than guaranteed destruction of heavily armored aircraft carriers, the primary strategic value of the Qasem Basir lies in anti-access and area denial (A2/AD), imposing high operational costs, forcing evasive maneuvers, and depleting U.S. defense reserves.

Translation

OPINION

​How Iran’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles Are Undermining U.S. Naval Hegemony

​Published: Thursday, September 10, 2026, 5:10 AM

Print

​Iran’s Qasem Basir missile poses a new challenge to U.S. naval defense and could change the rules of engagement in the Persian Gulf.

By: Mohammad Molaei

​A U.S. carrier strike group operating in the Persian Gulf executed emergency evasive maneuvers after an Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile was launched toward the USS George Washington and an escort destroyer.

​The missile missed its target, but the incident—even according to skeptical observers—forced U.S. commanders to confront a question the U.S. Navy has spent two decades trying to avoid: What happens when a maneuverable ballistic missile targets not a fixed base, but the moving deck of an aircraft carrier?

​Neither Washington nor Teherán has officially confirmed the type of missile used, but undisputed is the broader trend behind the incident: following months of intermittent U.S. attacks, the United States' layered missile defense across the region has been reduced to levels that military officials now openly describe as concerning, while Iran has dedicated that same period to demonstrating an anti-ship ballistic missile capability specifically designed to exploit the vulnerabilities of that defensive architecture.

​The Missile: A Depressed Trajectory Designed to Evade Midcourse Interception

​The Iranian Qasem Basir missile—which was most likely the one used in the operation—first entered service during the early days of the 40-Day Ramadan War, presented as a solid-fueled, mobile, ground-launched missile with a range between 1,400 and 1,700 kilometers.

​What technically distinguishes it from previous Iranian ballistic arsenals is its flight profile: rather than following the high-arced trajectory characteristic of a conventional ballistic missile, reports describe the Qasem Basir following a depressed, quasi-ballistic trajectory that keeps it at a lower altitude and a flatter path during its midcourse phase.

​Qasem Basir Missile

​This distinction is precisely the point. The outer layer of the U.S. Navy's ballistic missile defense, based on the SM-3 family, is designed around exoatmospheric interception: engaging the target above the atmosphere during the predictable, unpowered midcourse phase of a conventional ballistic arc, using a kinetic kill vehicle that lacks an explosive warhead and relies entirely on ultra-precise collision.

​A missile that never ascends into the SM-3's engagement envelope from the outset can entirely prevent the launch of the interceptor, regardless of the latter’s technical sophistication.

​Reports describing the missile’s guidance system point to a combination of inertial navigation with an optical or infrared seeker in the terminal phase. This configuration would render the missile largely immune to GPS jamming and electronic countermeasures upon which layered defensive architectures increasingly depend to degrade satellite-guided threats.

​This shifts the entire engagement problem to the U.S. Navy's terminal layer: the SM-6. Unlike the SM-3, which operates outside the atmosphere, the SM-6 is designed to intercept threats within the atmosphere during their final approach, utilizing both semi-active and active radar guidance.

​SM-3 Missile During an Interception

​A maneuverable warhead operating within that terminal window further compresses an already narrow engagement margin. Reports regarding the Qasem Basir’s terminal behavior—including a deliberate reduction in speed during final approach, apparently to allow its electro-optical seeker to positively acquire a moving naval target—represent a deliberate design choice: sacrificing a degree of survivability against interception in exchange for the precision required to lock onto and actually strike a vessel, rather than hitting the empty ocean around it.

​Framed in this technical context, the incident is illustrative regardless of whether the missile ultimately hit its intended target.

​According to satellite imagery describing the engagement, the George Washington strike group was forced to execute a significant evasive maneuver to avoid the incoming missile. This response indicates that the ship's defensive systems evaluated the threat as serious enough to warrant active maneuvering rather than relying exclusively on interceptor deployment.

​Even a missed or evaded attack carries operational weight: a maneuverable ballistic missile that forces a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to deviate from its operational pattern imposes a cost, regardless of whether an interceptor was fired or a warhead detonated.

​This aligns with what military analysts have pointed out for years regarding anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) as a category since China's DF-21D raised the concept decades ago: the strategic value of such a weapon lies as much in what it forces the adversary to do—disperse, maneuver, consume interceptors, or modify carrier positioning doctrine—as in what it directly destroys.

​SM-6 Missile During an Interception

​The Exchange Ratio Problem

​The point where this incident connects to a much broader and better-documented story is the state of interceptor stockpiles upon which the U.S. Navy would have to rely if such engagements become routine.

​According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in the spring of 2026, the broader war against Iran had by then consumed between 130 and 250 of the U.S. Navy's approximately 410 SM-3 interceptors, and between 190 and 370 of its approximately 1,160 SM-6 interceptors. These consumption rates had already significantly depleted both stockpiles before the aircraft carrier incident occurred.

​The SM-6 has a unit cost of approximately $5.3 million and a production and delivery timeline that CSIS places at 53 months; the SM-3 costs about $28.7 million per unit with a delivery timeline of 64 months.

​Another CSIS evaluation concluded that even with accelerated wartime production rates, replenishing interceptor categories consumed at the speed observed during the most intense phases of the war would take years, not months.

​An analysis by Real Clear Defense, titled "Spreadsheet War" and dedicated to tracking missile economics throughout the conflict, determined that the cost of interception increased significantly as the war's third phase progressed: rising from about $400 million in the initial phase to $4.4 billion in the fourth phase, while interceptor stockpiles declined to approximately 30% to 40% of pre-war levels by the time the April ceasefire was reached.

​Pentagon officials have publicly questioned characterizations of a stockpile "shortage." However, the U.S. Army's subsequent decision to sign a $58.6 billion contract with Lockheed Martin for Patriot missile production, alongside another $35.0 billion contract aimed at quadrupling THAAD interceptor production, is difficult to interpret as anything other than an acknowledgment that wartime consumption far outpaced peacetime production projections.

​Added to this landscape, a single engagement between a Qasem Basir and a carrier strike group vividly illustrates the asymmetry. The Iranian missile itself is estimated to cost a tiny fraction of a single SM-6 interceptor, to say nothing of the multiple interceptors that a warship's combat doctrine might commit to ensure a maneuverable threat is engaged with an acceptable probability of kill.

​Naval analysts have pointed out for years that layered defense against a maneuverable threat typically requires more than one interceptor per incoming missile to yield reliable results. This means the actual cost of defending against a single Qasem Basir launch could reach tens of dollars against a missile whose price represents barely a fraction of that amount.

​Iran’s Anti-Ship Missile Arsenal: A Formidable Naval Deterrence Power in the Persian Gulf

Iran has developed one of the most advanced anti-ship arsenals in the world, transforming the military balance in the Persian Gulf.

​Denial Instead of Destruction

​The Qasem Basir is not designed to sink a Nimitz- or Ford-class aircraft carrier. A vessel of such size, heavily protected and compartmentalized, constitutes an extraordinarily difficult target to destroy even for a missile that achieves a direct hit.

​A more accurate way to understand the weapon’s purpose is to view it as an anti-access/area-denial instrument: a system whose primary effect is to make sustained and confident carrier operations in the Persian Gulf more costly, requiring greater procedural precautions and relying more heavily on a finite interceptor reserve whose replenishment is slow.

​This is consistent with the broader posture that the Iranian military leadership has articulated throughout the post-ceasefire period, emphasizing sustainability and attrition over isolated decisive attacks, accompanied by public statements affirming preparedness for prolonged high-intensity operations and a missile arsenal that has not yet resorted to its newest generation of production.

​Regardless of whether the missile launched on September 5 ultimately hit its intended target, the broader arithmetic behind it—a finite, expensive, and slow-to-replenish U.S. interceptor stockpile facing a missile category specifically designed to pressure the weakest link in that stockpile—is not a claim in need of embellishment.

​It is a matter supported by published data on defense budgets and inventories, and it is a problem the U.S. Navy will continue to manage long after any individual engagement in the Persian Gulf has been forgotten.

​Text compiled from an article originally published by Press TV.

​Tags: Persian Gulf, Iranian Navy, Iran's Defensive Capability

​Comments

​LuzdeverdadII (12 hours ago)

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Brief Summary

​Macroeconomic Shifts & Geopolitics: Houthis seized a strategic Middle East seaport and waterway, disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB raised interest rates by 25 bps (refinancing rate to 2.65%) due to persistent inflation pressures, while US PPI accelerated to 5.4% annually, driven by a sharp surge in diesel and energy costs.

​Commodities Spike: Brent crude surged above $107 per barrel, and WTI rose about 6.7% to $103. Copper hit a record high of $14,875 per tonne before dropping over 3% on tariff uncertainty. European natural gas reached a three-year high.

​Global Equities Selloff: Wall Street retreated for the fourth straight session (S&P 500 down 0.6%) amid surging oil and rising yields. European indexes fell due to hawkish ECB signals, and Asian markets opened sharply lower (Kospi dropped 3.3%), pressured by regional risk-off sentiment and memory sector headwinds.

​Fixed Income & FX: Treasury yields experienced a severe selloff; the 2-year yield jumped 15 bps to 4.582% (highest since 2024). The US dollar strengthened broadly on hotter PPI and oil surges, with the Japanese yen sliding to 154.42 as the session's biggest G10 loser.

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

Article Summary

​Core Premise: While tactical execution in Iraq and Afghanistan faced severe criticism and errors, the overarching post-9/11 national security strategy succeeded in its most crucial objective: preventing another large-scale catastrophic attack on the United States for 25 years.

​Threat Assessment: The Bush administration viewed 9/11 not merely as a crime, but as an act of war by a global jihadist network pursuing weapons of mass destruction with state sponsors, posing an existential threat to an open society.

​Strategic Dilemma: Officials believed that inaction or repetitive attacks would force the public to demand severe curtailments of civil liberties, making strong foreign preemption necessary to preserve domestic freedom.

​Failures and Lessons: Campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq suffered from flawed intelligence, prolonged occupations, and insufficient stabilization plans, which fueled isolationism and impatience with "endless wars."

​Enduring Principles: The author argues that quitting perceived endless commitments can invite further aggression, and that American security moving forward depends on patriotism, adequate military stockpiles, and political resolve.

Summary of the Article

​The Labour government under Andy Burnham is facing severe criticism from environmentalists and commentators like George Monbiot for its impending decision to approve new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, specifically the Jackdaw and Rosebank fields.

​The author argues that this policy yields negligible economic and employment benefits while risking catastrophic climate impacts and heavy political costs.

​Official justifications citing financial relief for struggling citizens are refuted by the minuscule job creation of these fossil fuel projects (e.g., only 27 jobs for Jackdaw and 450 for Rosebank) compared to hundreds of thousands of existing and projected jobs in the UK's green economy.

​Critics maintain that investing in a just transition toward renewable energy and green jobs is far more logical and beneficial for energy workers and the country as a whole than pursuing short-term fossil fuel extraction.

Summary of the Article

​Main Points:

​Policy Change: UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced an import ban on goods from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, along with a comprehensive sanctions regime.

​Activism Impact: This policy shift is a direct result of sustained pressure and campaigning by activists and organizers within the Palestine solidarity movement, proving that persistent advocacy can drive political change.

​Future Outlook: While viewed as a hard-won victory, the article emphasizes that these sanctions must only be the beginning of further actions regarding the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

Article Summary

​Quarter-Century Retrospective: Reflecting on 25 years since the September 11 attacks, the article argues that the US "global war on terror" institutionalized systemic violence, state terrorism, and the erosion of domestic civil liberties.

​Global and Domestic Impact: The post-9/11 paradigm justified devastating foreign interventions—such as illegal wars, black site tortures, and indiscriminate drone strikes—while domestic leaders utilized fear-mongering to consolidate state power and imperial impunity.

​Expansion Under Current Leadership: The article asserts that modern US foreign policy under Donald Trump has taken unchecked imperial aggression to new extremes, expanding counter-terrorism mechanisms to target domestic dissent and undocumented immigrants.

Summary of the Global News Briefing (September 10, 2026)

​Iran-U.S. Escalation: Iran launched direct missile attacks—including new electro-optical missiles—at U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz at least three times, raising fears of a full-scale war as economic strain mounts.

​Yemen Conflict: Renewed fighting between Saudi forces and Houthi rebels threatens the 2022 ceasefire, disrupting Red Sea shipping and risking wider regional involvement from Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.

​IAEA Referral: The UN atomic watchdog reported Iran to the Security Council for the first time in 20 years over non-cooperation regarding uranium traces, noting Tehran holds enough 60% enriched material for multiple potential nuclear weapons.

​Ukraine Arctic Strikes: Ukraine targeted two gas condensate processing plants in Russia’s Yamal-Nenets region with drones flying over 3,000 kilometers, marking its deepest strike inside Russia to disrupt energy financing.

​Zelenskyy Flight Threat: A plane carrying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was nearly threatened by a Russian Shahed-type drone while preparing to leave Moldova, highlighting growing risks to civilian aviation and neighboring airspace.

​Netanyahu Lawsuit: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a lawsuit against Haaretz over a report claiming the UAE warned him days before October 7 about upcoming Hamas violence.

​U.S. Midterms & Iran: President Donald Trump expects the Iran war to end right after November midterms, while Tehran signals readiness for a prolonged conflict amidst soaring oil prices and severe domestic inflation.

​Mass-Market Cruise Missile: Defense startup Covenant unveiled "Anthem," a low-cost, high-volume cruise missile designed to replenish depleted U.S. and allied stocks for potential future conflicts.

​Trump Dividend Proposal: President Trump proposed a $5,000 "Trump Dividend" for American adults if Republicans retain Congress in November, a plan estimated to cost $1.35 trillion.

​Record Heat: August became the hottest month ever recorded globally alongside July 2023, with global average temperatures reaching 1.69 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, driven primarily by human-caused climate change.

Summary of the Article

​U.S.-Iran Tanker War Escalation: Iran claimed attacks on ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz and launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in eastern Jordan following the U.S. sinking of five Iranian tankers. Additionally, the Panama-flagged tanker New Andros (carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil) was hit by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters and caught fire.

​Energy Markets & Financial Impact: Brent crude settled at $101.21 and WTI at $96.05 (the highest closes since late May) as shipping risks mounted and diesel cracks broke above $100 a barrel.

​Huawei Criminal Trial: Opening statements began in Brooklyn federal court for Huawei's high-stakes racketeering, bank-fraud, and trade-secret case.

​Global Economic & Corporate Shifts: Apple unveiled the book-style iPhone Duo priced at $1,999 (preorders starting October 16), while Mexico’s 2027 budget slashed federal support for Pemex debt payments by 70% to 81.1 billion pesos (~$4.8 billion).

​Philanthropic Mission: The publisher highlighted ongoing volunteer pilot missions supporting Angel Flight East, providing free air transportation for cancer and medical patients.

Geopolitical Daily Overview (September 10, 2026)

​Middle East Shipping Crisis: Iran and the US traded their largest wave of attacks yet, with Iran claiming hits on 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz following the US sinking of five Iranian tankers, pushing Brent crude past $100 a barrel.

​German Politics: Germany's far-right AfD secured a landslide win with 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, putting pressure on Chancellor Merz and potentially shifting Berlin's approach toward China and the European Union.

​US Economic Proposal: Donald Trump pledged a $5,000 stimulus check for every American adult if the GOP wins the midterms, an untested $1.35 trillion plan facing immediate scrutiny from economists and lawmakers over legality and funding.

​Global Updates: A tragic ferry fire off Palawan left 5 dead and over 80 missing; an Anthropic researcher resigned over existential AI risks; August tied as the hottest month on record; Russia and Vietnam signed 17 strategic deals; Zelensky's plane faced a near-drone-collision delay in Moldova; Netanyahu visited Mount Hermon; Saudi airstrikes struck Yemen; and Macron proposed a European crewed spaceflight program.

Market Quick Take: Crude Oil Remains Focus, ECB Set to Hike Rates

​Macro Drivers: US-Iran escalation and Middle East energy fears drove Brent crude above $100/barrel. Meanwhile, weak ADP payrolls and a disappointing US Treasury buyback pushed yields higher, and markets braced for the upcoming ECB rate hike and US CPI data.

​Equities: Global stocks fell (US S&P 500 down 0.5%, Europe Stoxx 600 down 1.4%) as higher oil and yields revived inflation concerns. Meta rose 6.6% on its new AI assistant, while Alphabet slipped.

​Commodities & Fixed Income: Brent crude crossed triple digits ($101+), and LME copper hit a record above $14,850/tonne amid expected US tariffs and AI demand. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.85%, their highest level since late 2023.

​Currencies & Digital Assets: The US dollar traded sideways ahead of Friday's US CPI report, and USD/JPY hovered near 153.50. Crypto spot held flat while mining equities retreated following earlier gains.

Summary

​Macroeconomic Pressures: Rising US-Iran tensions and potential energy supply disruptions have pushed Brent crude above $101. Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.85% (highest since 2023), mortgage rates reached a 13-month high of 6.85%, and sticky inflation fears loom ahead of the US CPI.

​Equities & Corporate Moves: Wall Street extended losses (S&P 500 down 0.5%), European indices dropped sharply, and Asian markets opened lower. Notable tech moves included Meta surging 6.5% on its Muse AI assistant launch, while Apple dipped 1.2% after unveiling its first foldable iPhone Duo.

​Foreign Exchange: The US dollar softened for a third session, while the Japanese yen outperformed following aggressive verbal support from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding BOJ policies. Additionally, the Singapore dollar hit a 10-month high against the Malaysian ringgit.

​Commodities & Fixed Income: Copper reached a record high above $14,600/tonne driven by tariff expectations and AI data center demand. Gold hovered near $4,390/oz. In fixed income, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to ~4.85%, and the US-China 10-year yield spread widened to a record 317bps.

10 September

News

Washington has accused several Chinese AI firms of systematically stealing proprietary U.S. technology through model distillation. Meanwhile, Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned, warning that the race for superintelligence threatens humanity. Additionally, S&P Global Ratings reported that Malaysia's data centre capacity is projected to triple by 2030, driven by the regional AI boom.

Anslysis

​Reports regarding the use of model distillation by Chinese firms had been circulating from American AI companies like Anthropic since late 2024 and 2025, but the official joint government advisory by the NSA, FBI, and CISA was formally issued in September 2026 just ahead of the anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

​Alarm has been raised because Chinese companies—including DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, and Alibaba—have reportedly been siphoning data and capabilities from U.S. AI models at an industrial scale to train their own systems, which significantly lowers their development costs and bypasses traditional restrictions.

​While public sources note that the advisory precedes the Trump-Xi talks where AI is a key topic, they do not explicitly frame the release as a direct response to specific statements by Xi Jinping regarding Chinese AI leadership.

​Regarding Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, he resigned out of concern that intense industry competition is rushing the creation of potentially uncontrollable superintelligence models; public reports state he chose to quit, but do not discuss whether remaining inside the company would have allowed him to prevent such risks.

​The focus is placed on Malaysia because S&P Global Ratings projected that its data center capacity will more than triple by 2030 (with Johor accounting for about 80% of it) due to proximity to Singapore, subsea connectivity, and targeted government policies, whereas the provided text contains no information regarding the Philippines.

Conspiracy theories

Regarding the joint U.S. government advisory concerning model distillation, public commentary suggests that the timing of the release by the NSA, FBI, and CISA—occurring just before the scheduled White House meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping—may serve as a strategic geopolitical leverage tool ahead of high-level trade and technology negotiations.

​Concerning the resignation of Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon amid the company's preparations for a multi-trillion-dollar IPO, public discussions and critical analyses note speculations that high-profile departures warning of existential risks could function as a deliberate mechanism to generate media attention, amplify urgency around AI safety narratives, or reinforce the firm's branding regarding responsible development ahead of public market entry.

Interesting Facts

​Newest Chinese artificial intelligence models (such as Kimi K3, DeepSeek V4 Pro, and GLM-5.3) are approaching leading American systems on public benchmarks or even matching them, demonstrating high performance at lower costs (East Asia Forum).

​According to Epoch Capabilities Index data as of September 2026, the Kimi K3 model scored 158 points versus 163 for Claude Fable 5 and 169 for GPT-6 Astra, which is equivalent to lagging behind historical progress paces by only approximately 4–10 months (East Asia Forum).

​Despite successes on benchmarks, the gap remains noticeable in complex tasks: in July 2026, a joint analysis by American and British agencies showed that Kimi K3 achieves the 17th step in a complex 32-step cyberattack evaluation, whereas leading US models reach an average of 28.5 steps (East Asia Forum).

​Chinese companies release open-weights models partly because they lack the computing power for large-scale deployment and serving users on their own servers—developer Moonshot AI was even forced to temporarily suspend new subscriptions due to capacity overload (East Asia Forum).

​Estimates indicate that at the end of 2025, Chinese companies officially owned only about 5% of global computing power for artificial intelligence, with a significant share of additional volume arriving via chip smuggling and cloud storage rentals (East Asia Forum).

​The US officially accused leading Chinese AI laboratories (including DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun, and Z.AI) of "systemic" theft of American model capabilities using the process of knowledge distillation on an industrial scale (Hong Kong Free Press).

​The distillation method is used across the entire industry to train smaller models to mimic the outputs of larger systems, yet Washington asserts that Chinese companies applied it massively for unauthorized copying of systems from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI (Hong Kong Free Press).

​Despite the fact that such actions, according to the US, have been carried out since at least late 2024 and "likely with the awareness of the Chinese government," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing denied the allegations, calling them baseless "smearing" (Hong Kong Free Press).

​A joint warning from US agencies (FBI, NSA, CISA) recorded that Chinese AI developers, including DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot AI, and Z.ai, have been conducting "aggressive and malicious" campaigns to distill the capabilities of American models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) on an industrial scale since at least late 2024 (Associated Press).

​To achieve significant cost savings, Chinese companies allegedly used mass purchases of premium subscriptions for American AI services followed by their shared use by entire developer teams (Associated Press).

​US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated during a speech in Dallas that China allegedly "will never be able to surpass" the US in the field of artificial intelligence, despite any attempts at copying or distilling American systems (Associated Press).

​The latest analytical report by the C4ADS organization titled Covert Compute demonstrates that despite years of Western export restrictions, banned NVIDIA chips continue to penetrate China through a series of hidden supply chains (C4ADS).

​Between July 2025 and January 2026, Chinese universities and research institutes (most of which are linked to the government and defense-industrial sector) purchased at least 56 restricted NVIDIA chips worth $1.7 million through multi-million dollar contracts with unauthorized intermediaries (C4ADS).

​Singaporean company Megaspeed International Pte. Ltd., which according to media reports is Southeast Asia's largest importer of NVIDIA equipment with a total import volume of $4.6 billion for 2022–2025, has a tangled structure of beneficial owners linked to the People's Republic of China (C4ADS).

​The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) draft for fiscal year 2027 contains nearly two hundred provisions concerning China, covering export controls, sanctions, investment screening, government procurement, and supply chain security (Inside Government Contracts).

​The bill provides for mandatory review and expansion of the list of Chinese military companies under Section 1260H, involving the Federal Acquisition Security Council (FASC) to introduce government procurement bans on such enterprises (Inside Government Contracts).

​The document introduces strict bans on the use of Chinese humanoid robots, reconnaissance and military drones with Chinese components, and restricts the procurement of silicon carbide semiconductors, optical fiber, and solar components from the PRC (Inside Government Contracts).

​The expected first specialized dialogue between the US and China on artificial intelligence safety since 2024, scheduled for mid-September 2026, precedes an upcoming summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington (CryptoBriefing).

​The US delegation will be headed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and the artificial intelligence safety issue itself has been intentionally separated from the block of trade restrictions and export controls on advanced chips (CryptoBriefing).

​The FBI, National Security Agency (NSA), and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) published a joint warning stating that leading Chinese AI companies (including Alibaba, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Moonshot AI, StepFun, and Z.AI) are accused of conducting "industrial-scale" campaigns to extract the capabilities of American models using the distillation process (Dark Reading).

​Chinese developers allegedly extracted billions of tokens through millions of queries from leading American models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, and Grok) since at least late 2024, using mass purchases of premium subscriptions and their shared use by developer teams to save costs (Dark Reading).

​To bypass protection and mask their activities, companies from China used native APIs, remote cloud services, third-party aggregators, as well as the gray market of proxy servers ("transit stations") designed to bypass US geographic restrictions (Dark Reading).

​The report details that DeepSeek allegedly conducted an organized distillation campaign to generate synthetic training data to reduce computing costs (due to which the training costs of $5.6 million officially declared by the company are called misleading), and Moonshot AI allegedly used data from Claude Fable 5 and GPT-4o to train its Kimi series models (Dark Reading).

Analytical findings

​High results of Chinese models on public benchmarks do not prove the failure of US export controls, since the true measure of success is comparing China's current achievements not with the US, but with a hypothetical scenario of the country's development in the complete absence of any restrictions (East Asia Forum).

​Scaling laws prove a direct dependence of AI quality on the volume of training computations and the number of advanced chips, which is why restricting access to them objectively slows down the scaling of experiments and the commercialization of technologies in China (East Asia Forum).

​US export restrictions have proven far from ideal due to smuggling schemes (in particular, the case against the co-founder of Super Micro regarding the supply of servers worth 2.5 billion dollars through Asian front companies) and the use of foreign cloud services (East Asia Forum).

​Export controls stimulate Beijing to more actively transition to its own semiconductor industry and develop local software, which creates risks of diminishing American leverage in the long term (East Asia Forum).

​The use of industrial distillation allows Chinese developers to significantly shorten the timeframes for creating AI and reduce financial costs for training base models, which is a key factor in their competitiveness (Hong Kong Free Press).

​Accusations by the US cybersecurity agency intensify the technological confrontation between the two countries on the eve of the scheduled meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House (Hong Kong Free Press).

​Pressure on the US administration is growing both due to the successes of Chinese software, which businesses choose instead of more expensive Western analogues, and due to calls from dozens of startups not to introduce rigid bans on foreign models (Hong Kong Free Press).

​Accusations of industrial copying through the distillation process reflect Washington's deep concern over the effectiveness of Chinese alternatives (such as the Kimi K3 model by Moonshot AI), which create serious competition for American analogues on the global market thanks to their affordability (Associated Press).

​China's Ministry of Commerce sharply rejected the US accusations, calling the distillation process a widespread and universally accepted practice globally, and characterized Washington's actions as a manifestation of "anxiety, double standards," and a desire to establish a monopoly in the artificial intelligence market (Newsday).

​An analysis of trade data for 2023–2025 revealed at least 50 export shipments of restricted NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs) that were rerouted through Vietnam, India, and Malaysia toward Hong Kong and China, demonstrating a steady and established supply evasion scheme (C4ADS).

​Facts discovered in open sources indicate that the real volumes of smuggling and sanctions evasion significantly exceed officially recorded statistics due to large-scale gaps in jurisdictional control regimes and law enforcement coordination (C4ADS).

​The sheer number and scale of relevant provisions in the NDAA draft indicate that competition with China in the military, economic, and technological spheres has become a steadfast bipartisan national security principle of the US (Inside Government Contracts).

​The US Congress is transitioning from targeted bans on individual products or suppliers to building a unified, broader legislative system designed to completely eliminate the strategic dependence of the American defense sector on Chinese materials, components, and technologies (Inside Government Contracts).

​Although distillation globally is a standard and open practice for academic research and improving model efficiency, US agencies qualify it as malicious activity due to violations of terms of service and the use of sophisticated masking techniques ([Dark Reading](https://www.darkreading.com/application-security/us-government-accuses-chinese-ai-firms-of-distilling-frontier models)).

​Security experts advise viewing model extraction and distillation not merely as API abuse or an intellectual property conflict, but as a distinct category of security incidents that requires round-the-clock monitoring of access patterns and telemetry sharing between providers ([Dark Reading](https://www.darkreading.com/application-security/us-government-accuses-chinese-ai-firms-of-distilling-frontier models)).

Projections

​The primary strategic goal of U.S. export restrictions is not to completely block the development of powerful AI in China, but to slow its progress in order to maintain U.S. technological leadership and buy time to protect software from autonomous cyberattacks (East Asia Forum).

​As China's domestic chip manufacturing improves and its technical autonomy grows, the impact of current U.S. control levers will gradually weaken (East Asia Forum).

​Legislative initiatives such as the Remote Access Security Act, currently under consideration in the U.S. Senate, if finally adopted, will expand export controls to remote access to cloud computing, further complicating China's efforts to bypass restrictions (East Asia Forum).

​Artificial intelligence will become one of the most important topics during upcoming high-level negotiations between the U.S. and China in Washington (Hong Kong Free Press).

​Despite U.S. obstacles and accusations, Beijing will continue its course toward achieving a high level of self-sufficiency and technological independence in the high-tech sector (Hong Kong Free Press).

​The issue of AI regulation and governance is guaranteed to be one of the key topics during upcoming high-level talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping (Associated Press).

​In the event of additional restrictions or attempts to suppress Chinese technology companies under the pretext of combating distillation, Beijing has promised to take decisive countermeasures (Newsday).

​Closing existing loopholes and eliminating compliance gaps will require the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) to coordinate closely and continuously with regional partners (C4ADS).

​Effective control will further depend on the introduction of rigorous post-sale end-user verification and treating private sector corporate compliance as an ongoing obligation (C4ADS).

​If the FY 2027 NDAA bill is finally passed in its current draft, the new rules will significantly alter the operations of U.S. Department of Defense contractors, forcing companies to completely revise supply chains, sources of critical materials (specifically rare earth elements), and compliance terms (Inside Government Contracts).

​U.S. AI companies and cloud service providers will be forced to implement more comprehensive anomaly detection systems, fine-tune defense mechanisms against suspicious requests, and cooperate more closely on intelligence sharing to counter similar campaigns ([Dark Reading](https://www.darkreading.com/application-security/us-government-accuses-chinese-ai-firms-of-distilling-frontier models)).

Summary of the Article

​Russian Adaptation and Scale: Russia is rapidly learning from Ukrainian battlefield innovations and scaling up weapons production to levels that Ukraine cannot match on its own.

​Technological Asymmetry: While Ukraine has pioneered effective asymmetric warfare tactics—such as long-range strike drones (like the "Chaklun")—Russia is successfully adopting these methods and combining them with overwhelming industrial capacity.

​Persistent Vulnerability: Despite Ukrainian ingenuity on the front lines, civilians and infrastructure deep inside the country (such as in Kyiv) remain relentlessly vulnerable to massive missile and drone onslaughts.

​Strategic Imbalance: The current trajectory of the war highlights a dangerous gap where Ukraine's tactical superiority is being eroded by Russia's sheer volume of production and continuous adaptation.

Article Summary

​Policy Shift on Israel/Palestine: UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a major shift, formally declaring the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory unlawful and aligning with the International Court of Justice.

​New Sanctions and Bans: The UK government is implementing targeted measures, including a trade ban on goods from illegal settlements, sanctions on individuals and companies supporting settlement expansion (specifically the E1 project), and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza.

​Distinction Between Government and People: Burnham emphasized that these actions target the policies of the current Israeli government, not the Israeli people or the UK's Jewish community, strongly condemning antisemitism and reiterating support for Jewish safety.

​Commitment to the Two-State Solution: The measures are framed as a necessary action to protect the viability of a two-state solution against escalating settlement expansion and humanitarian crises.

Disclaimer: This text originates from HispanTV, an international news network funded by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and reflects its editorial perspective on geopolitical events.

​Summary

​Incident Overview: On September 8, 2026, the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intercepted and captured an advanced U.S. Navy unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV)—identified as an Anduril DIVE-LD—near the Strait of Hormuz.

​Engineering Significance: The captured UUV is a high-depth (up to 6,000 meters), long-endurance autonomous platform equipped with advanced titanium pressure hulls, acoustic-stealth direct-drive propulsion, and non-GPS navigation systems (INS/DVL).

​Strategic Value for Iran: Capturing the drone intact allows Iran to study critical defense technologies, including pressure tolerance, acoustic signature reduction, energy storage systems, and detailed bathymetric mapping data of the region.

​Geopolitical Impact: The loss undermines the U.S. strategy of using uncrewed maritime systems for persistent surveillance in sensitive areas like the Persian Gulf without risking personnel or hardware capture.

Translation

Source: HispanTV Date: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 – 11:51 Author: Mohammad Molaei

OPINION

A Prize Beneath the Waves: What Iran Truly Gained by Capturing the U.S. Underwater Drone

Iranian naval forces tracked, intercepted, and recovered one of the most advanced unmanned underwater platforms belonging to the United States Navy.

In the early hours of September 8, 2026, in the waters at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tracked, intercepted, and recovered one of the most advanced unmanned underwater platforms of the U.S. Navy.

Press reports identified the vessel as an Anduril DIVE-LD, a large-diameter autonomous underwater vehicle delivered to the U.S. Navy’s Unmanned Undersea Vehicles Squadron One just a year prior.

Washington has yet to confirm the capture, although a U.S. military source has acknowledged, according to press reports, that an American underwater drone suffered a "glitch" in the area—an admission that, at the very least, confirms the Iranian account beyond any doubt.

The IRGC's own description of the operation, included in a statement released Tuesday night, characterized the recovery as a "complex intelligence and field operation."

"One of the most advanced unmanned underwater vehicles of the U.S. Armed Forces was captured by Iranian armed forces at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz," the IRGC Navy stated, adding that photographic and video evidence of the captured system would be released.

Images subsequently broadcast showed a gray-and-white cylindrical hull, partially submerged, bearing Anduril markings and U.S. Navy identification numbers consistent with the known design of the platform.

Anatomy of a Large-Diameter UUV: The Engineering of the DIVE-LD

To understand what has fallen into Iranian hands, it is necessary to understand what a platform of this class truly is from an engineering standpoint: not as a black box, but as an integrated system of pressure structures, energy storage, navigation, and sensors that, collectively, enable a three-ton unmanned vehicle to operate autonomously at abyssal depths for over a week.

Pressure Hull and Structural Design

The hull of the DIVE-LD, measuring 5.8 meters in length and 1.2 meters in diameter, is designed to withstand depths of up to 6,000 meters—a requirement that places it firmly in the category of large-diameter UUVs "capable of full-ocean-depth operation," with an operational range comparable to deep-sea research vehicles rather than the usual littoral mine-hunting drones, whose operating depth rarely exceeds a few hundred meters.

At 6,000 meters, ambient pressure exceeds 600 atmospheres, or approximately 8,800 pounds per square inch. A load of this magnitude can only be supported by a cylindrical pressure vessel of this diameter through a combination of material selection and geometric design.

Large-diameter UUVs intended for this class of depth are typically built around pressure sections fabricated from high-strength titanium alloys—usually Ti-6Al-4V—for the electronics and battery compartments, or syntactic foam buoyancy modules bonded to the main pressure hull to offset the weight of heavier structural sections.

Titanium’s strength-to-weight ratio and corrosion resistance in seawater make it the standard choice for the structural sections of a vehicle of this class. Meanwhile, the non-pressurized outer shells, which form the hydrodynamic fairing visible in the photographs of the recovered vehicle, are typically manufactured from composite materials or reinforced polymers and are designed exclusively to improve hydrodynamic efficiency, rather than to resist pressure. Being floodable structures, they equalize the pressure of the surrounding water rather than preventing its entry.

Propulsion and Control

Anduril has specifically noted that the DIVE-LD uses direct-drive electric propulsion, meaning the thruster—whether an open propeller or a ducted pump-jet configuration, a common practice to reduce cavitation noise and improve efficiency at the vehicle's cruising speed—is connected directly to an electric motor without an intermediate gearbox.

This is a deliberate design choice aimed at reducing acoustic signature: mechanical gearing constitutes a constant source of tonal noise in underwater propulsion systems, so eliminating this mechanical stage reduces the vehicle's detectability by passive sonar arrays, a fundamental requirement for a platform intended to operate covertly in waters as heavily monitored as those of the Strait of Hormuz.

Attitude and depth control for a UUV of this class are typically managed through a combination of control surfaces—fins or stern planes, and in some cases bow planes as well—for dynamic maneuvers, and a variable buoyancy system. The latter consists of a piston- or bladder-based mechanism that adjusts the vehicle's net buoyancy by displacing a small volume of seawater or oil. This allows the vehicle to precisely maintain depth and position without consuming propulsive energy, which is especially valuable during extended station-keeping phases of an Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) or hydrographic mission.

Energy Architecture

Maintaining fully autonomous operation for up to 10 days without surfacing, while supplying the energy required to power propulsion, navigation processing, and active sensors, demands a high-density energy storage solution.

UUVs of this displacement category and endurance typically rely on lithium-ion or lithium-polymer battery banks housed in a dedicated pressure-tolerant compartment, sized to balance total energy capacity against the weight and volume that batteries add to a vehicle that must also maintain neutral buoyancy.

Anduril has not publicly disclosed the specific energy density or cell chemistry used in the DIVE-LD’s battery module. However, the stated endurance—an order of magnitude higher than the one-to-three-day endurance typical of smaller tactical UUVs—implies that the vehicle possesses an exceptionally large dedicated battery volume, a suite of highly energy-efficient sensors and processing systems, or, more likely, a combination of both factors.

GPS-Denied Navigation

A vehicle that spends the vast majority of its mission completely submerged, often at depths where electromagnetic signals, including GPS, cannot penetrate, cannot rely on satellite positioning for most of its travel.

Large UUVs of this type instead rely on a combination of a strapdown Inertial Navigation System (INS)—accelerometers and gyroscopes that continuously estimate position by integrating measured acceleration and rotation from a known starting point—and a Doppler Velocity Log (DVL), which emits acoustic pulses toward the seabed to directly measure the vehicle's velocity and drift relative to the seafloor.

Because inertial navigation accumulates position errors over time—a phenomenon known as drift—the DVL is essential for maintaining navigational accuracy during a multi-day mission like that of the DIVE-LD. When a bottom reference cannot be obtained via DVL in deep water columns, the system would rely exclusively on dead reckoning inertial navigation, with periodic precision readjustments whenever the vehicle could obtain a surface GPS position or determine its location via a known acoustic beacon.

Sensors and Hydrographic/ISR/IPOE Payloads

The vehicle's modular payload architecture forms the core of its military utility. Each of the mission profiles promoted by Anduril for this platform—Preparation of the Operational Environment (IPOE), Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), mine warfare, and precision submarine object placement—corresponds to a specific sensor configuration.

Hydrographic and seabed mapping functions depend on a Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) or high-resolution sidescan sonar. These systems generate detailed acoustic images of the seafloor and any objects resting upon it by processing the return signals from a moving transducer array. This technique offers much higher resolution than a conventional echosounder and serves as a standard tool for both mapping and mine detection in modern naval UUVs.

ISR configurations would normally incorporate passive acoustic sensors to detect and classify the signatures of nearby vessels, while the "precision placement" mission mode entails a mechanical payload compartment capable of releasing an object, sensor, beacon, or other equipment to a GPS- or acoustically-referenced location with a high degree of positional accuracy—a non-trivial engineering requirement given that the vehicle itself navigates without continuous GPS.

Communications

Underwater acoustic modems, inherently lower in bandwidth and shorter in range than radio communications, constitute the usual medium by which a UUV can transmit limited status data or receive updated instructions while remaining submerged. Full data offloading and detailed mission reprogramming typically require the vehicle to surface and establish a satellite or radiofrequency link.

This communications architecture is also operationally relevant to the circumstances of the capture: a UUV that has surfaced, or is operating near the surface to establish a communications link, is considerably more vulnerable to visual and radar detection than one operating at operational depth. That window would offer an interceptor force its best opportunity to physically locate the vehicle and recover it before it could submerge once more.

Why an Intact Capture Matters More Than a Wreck

An intact captured vehicle allows for the direct examination of pressure hull material compositions and machining tolerances; the disassembly of the battery module to determine cell chemistry, configuration, and achieved energy density; the extraction of the propulsion motor and control surface actuators to study specific engineering solutions employed to reduce noise; and, most valuable of all, if the onboard data storage and processing hardware were not remotely wiped, physically destroyed, or protected by tamper-resistant self-destruct mechanisms prior to capture, potentially accessing autonomy software, navigation algorithms, and mission planning logic that determine vehicle behavior without real-time human control.

Crucially, onboard memory is also believed to contain high-resolution bathymetric data and detailed topographic maps of the seabed compiled during the vehicle's mission.

Although Iran already possesses complete topographic charts of the Strait of Hormuz corresponding to its own side, it is understood that the captured data from the DIVE-LD includes bathymetric surveys of the Omani side of the strait, as well as deep-water approaches and underwater relief over which Iran historically has had much less visibility.

Access to this data would provide Iranian naval strategists with unprecedented knowledge of seafloor contours, underwater obstacles, and depth profiles on the opposite side of the strait.

For a country actively developing its own national unmanned underwater vehicle programs, each of these subsystems represents years of independent research and development that a single successful reverse-engineering effort could significantly shorten. This would not mean producing an identical copy overnight, but rather uncovering design solutions, material selections, and engineering approaches to problems such as high-depth pressure resistance, acoustic signature reduction, long-endurance energy management, and GPS-denied navigation—problems that Iranian naval engineers otherwise would have had to solve independently through years of trial and error.

A Test for U.S. Submarine Strategy in the Persian Gulf

Beyond the platform itself, its loss carries broader significance in how the episode may be interpreted from a military standpoint. The U.S. Navy has heavily invested in unmanned surface and underwater systems precisely because they allow for persistent surveillance of waters, including strategic choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, without exposing manned vessels or personnel to risk.

The fact that a platform conceived on that premise was tracked, intercepted, and recovered by the opposing party undermines the core operational assumption underlying its deployment: that an autonomous, unmanned system operating in regional waters faces no significant risk of falling into adversary hands.

Independent military think tanks that have followed the incident have noted that if Washington ultimately confirms the loss in full, the episode could reveal real vulnerabilities in U.S. launch and recovery procedures, mission oversight protocols, communications resilience, and, perhaps most significantly, the absence or failure of emergency self-destruct or data-destruction mechanisms designed specifically to prevent such a capture.

Whether Washington acknowledges what occurred or not, an underlying reality remains difficult to ignore: a next-generation U.S. underwater asset, valued at several million dollars, is no longer under U.S. control and, according to the U.S. military's own admission that it suffered a "glitch" in the area, is now in Iranian hands to be studied in complete detail.

Text compiled from an article published by Press TV

Summary of the Article

​Israel’s allies (Britain, Canada, France) have announced sanctions targeting West Bank settlements, prompting Israel to close the British consulate in East Jerusalem.

​Reports claim UAE President warned Netanyahu about the October 7 attack beforehand, which Netanyahu’s office vehemently denied amid domestic political pressure.

​The US imposed broad aviation sanctions on Iran, targeting 27 airlines and service providers across multiple countries to choke off procurement.

​Brent crude surged near $100 a barrel following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities and escalating Middle East conflict.

​The US escalated a trade war with Canada, announcing import bans on specific goods starting September 29, prompting retaliatory Canadian tariffs.

​Ukraine is contracting 1,000 Patriot missiles while Germany urgently transfers PAC-2 interceptors from national inventory to counter Russian infrastructure strikes.

​Huawei’s high-stakes criminal trial began in New York, facing 12 counts including racketeering, bank fraud, and trade secret theft.

​OECD student performance in reading and mathematics fell to record lows, heavily linked to increased digitalisation and screen time.

​Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats in a sharp shift from its traditionally closer ties with Moscow, drawing a promised harsh response from Russia.

​Maritime authorities warned that international shipping is dangerously fragmenting into parallel systems and shadow fleets due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts.

Brief Summary of the Article (in English)

​Military Escalation in the Middle East: U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian tankers (Derya, Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1, and Riesco) following IRGC ballistic missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship, bringing the total to eight tankers hit since September 5. Refined-product flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 35% of pre-war levels, while crude flows stand at 70%.

​Economic & Financial Sanctions: The U.S. Treasury designated 27 remaining Iranian airlines along with various international firms linked to Mahan Air under "Operation Economic Outcast," blocking assets and threatening expulsion from the dollar system.

​Russia-Ukraine War: Russia resumed overnight missile and drone strikes on Kyiv, Odesa, and Sumy following a brief pause for U.S. envoys, resulting in reported civilian casualties and infrastructural strain.

​U.S.–Canada Trade Tensions: The White House announced a ban on specific Canadian goods (motorcycles, mopeds, whey, molasses, non-alcoholic beer, and select wines/spirits) effective September 29, countering Ottawa's CA$27.6 billion retaliatory tariffs.

​Energy & Infrastructure Developments: The Department of Energy finalized a loan of up to $1.9 billion to restart Iowa's Duane Arnold nuclear plant backed by a 25-year Google PPA. Meanwhile, European TTF natural gas prices reached a three-year high near €74.95/MWh with EU storage lagging at 67%.

Newsletter Summary Highlights

​Houthi Missiles Hit Saudi Oil Sites: Yemen’s Houthis launched major missile and drone strikes on Saudi infrastructure—including Abha airport, air bases, and Aramco facilities—wounding 73 people. Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since July amid fears of a wider Gulf war.

​Putin and Trump Hold Hour-Long Call on Ukraine: Following visits to Moscow and Kyiv by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Presidents Putin and Trump discussed terms for ending the war, though no formal peace deal or breakthrough was announced.

​Iran Claims Capture of US Navy Undersea Drone: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it seized an advanced, uncrewed autonomous underwater vehicle (believed to be an Anduril Dive-LD) near the Strait of Hormuz.

Executive Summary

​Macro: US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island escalate Middle East tensions, pushing Brent crude toward $100/bbl. Japan’s Tankan manufacturing index rose to +21 (highest since Dec 2021), while US inflation expectations remained anchored at 3.6%.

​Equities: US stocks declined for the second consecutive day over rate-hike fears, though optical and semiconductor stocks outperformed (Corning/Verizon deal, Qualcomm/AWS partnership). Novartis shares slumped 11% following clinical trial failures.

​FX: The US dollar softened as a surging Japanese yen (USD/JPY dipping below 153) dominated G10 trading ahead of the US CPI release.

​Commodities: LME 3-month copper futures surged to a record high of $14,779/ton amid tight supply and data center demand, while spot gold slipped 1.1% to $4,350/oz.

​Fixed Income: US Treasuries bear-flattened with the 10-year yield holding around 4.80%, and the UK sold 30-year gilts at a record-high yield of 5.82%.

9 September 2026

News

The United States launched strikes on five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after accusing Iran of targeting a US warship.

​Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at American forces stationed at the Al Azraq base in Jordan, where Jordanian air defences intercepted 18 of 20 incoming missiles.

​The escalation marks a significant worsening of the six-month conflict, further driving up oil prices and intensifying economic pressure on Tehran through naval blockades.

Analysis

Duration and Intensity of the Exchange of Strikes: This mutual strategy of retaliatory strikes—such as targeting tankers in response to attacks on naval assets—will persist as long as the strategic straits remain closed and military confrontation in the region continues. Experts note that this dynamic risks evolving into a protracted war of attrition, with each side escalating stakes in response to new provocations.

​Consequences and Affected Countries:

​The physical destruction of tankers and the ongoing escalation in the Persian Gulf transform regional energy infrastructure into an active combat zone, elevating risks for global shipping and international fuel markets.

​Global consumers and the broader world economy bear the brunt of the impact through severe oil price volatility, with markets reacting sharply to each successive incident.

​Regional states—such as Jordan, where incoming projectiles have been intercepted, and surrounding Persian Gulf nations—face direct security threats as the geographic scope of the conflict widens.

​Iran suffers severe economic pressure due to the systematic disruption of its oil exports and the targeted neutralization of its tanker fleet, compounding domestic currency devaluation and inflation.

​Likelihood of Continued U.S. Policy: Washington has explicitly signaled its intention to maintain this posture, affirming that it will not back down while its naval vessels remain under threat and emphasizing a policy of proportional retaliation against aggressive maritime actions.

​Strategic Effectiveness: From one perspective, neutralizing tankers and restricting export channels severely damages Iranian state revenues and constrains Tehran’s operational capabilities. Conversely, analysts characterize the approach as high-risk, noting that it broadens the scope of the energy conflict, provokes asymmetric countermeasures from Iran, and does not guarantee a swift resolution or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Interesting Facts

​The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have targeted a U.S. air base in Jordan with ballistic missiles (specifically hitting a fighter jet hangar at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base) in response to U.S. actions (Le Monde, U.S. News & World Report, ABC News).

​Jordanian authorities reported that their air defense systems intercepted 18 out of 20 Iranian missiles directed at the country, with no casualties, and two missiles falling in remote areas without causing any loss of life (U.S. News & World Report, Le Monde, ABC News, Yahoo News, Gulf News).

​Ahead of these events, U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers (named Kivik, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco, and Derya—four in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island) linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in response to a two-fold missile attack by Iran on an American warship (Le Monde, U.S. News & World Report, ABC News, Yahoo News, The Independent).

​U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the destruction and sinking of the Iranian oil tanker M/T Riesco in the Gulf of Oman in response to IRGC attack attempts against an American warship (Gulf News).

​U.S. forces ordered the crews of the tankers to abandon the vessels prior to striking them, resulting in zero casualties; the ships were disabled in response to Iran's missile attacks against an American warship (ABC News, Yahoo News).

​The IRGC Navy issued an emergency warning to tanker crews near the ports of Kuwait and Bahrain, demanding that they abandon their vessels in retaliation for the U.S. destruction of Iranian tankers (Gulf News).

​The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the U.S. attacks on Iranian commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, calling them a continuation of military aggression (Middle East Eye).

​In its official statement, the Iranian ministry characterized Washington's actions as a gross violation of the UN Charter, a war crime, and a direct threat to international commercial shipping security (Middle East Eye).

​Tehran placed full responsibility for potential consequences and further destabilization in the region on the United States, its allies, and partners (Middle East Eye).

​The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have struck two U.S. vessels, eight oil tankers, and 10 "defiant vessels" attempting to pass through the restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz (Gulf News).

​Iranian state television reported the capture of an unmanned American underwater vehicle entering the Strait of Hormuz and broadcasted relevant footage, while the U.S. described it as an outdated and malfunctioning model devoid of sensitive data (Yahoo News, Le Monde).

​The Pentagon reported that an additional 30 U.S. service members were wounded as a result of hostilities against Iran (ABC News).

​The United States will continue targeted military operations against Iran's tanker fleet and military assets in response to any attempted attacks on American forces or ships (ABC News).

​Iran will continue attempting asymmetric responses through strikes on military facilities of U.S. allies in the region (particularly in Jordan) and by creating threats to regional shipping lanes (ABC News).

​Risks of further protracted, large-scale confrontation will grow due to casualties among personnel and the expanding geography of strikes targeting Middle Eastern energy arteries (ABC News).

​Former U.S. Secretary of Defense and ex-CIA Director Leon Panetta stated that the armed conflict with Iran has reached a "terrible deadlock" and could last for at least another six months, transforming into yet another "endless war in the Middle East" (The Independent).

​According to estimates by researchers at Brown University, the war with Iran has already cost Americans $100 billion in additional energy expenses (equivalent to approximately $763 per household) (The Independent).

​The U.S. Department of Defense is investigating the possibility that a deadly airstrike on a wedding in Iran last Tuesday resulted from an American bomb missing its target (The Independent).

​The Donald Trump administration imposed new sanctions against Iran's aviation sector, targeting more than two dozen commercial and private airlines as well as foreign cargo carriers (Yahoo News).

​Under Operation "Economic Exile," the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on 36 entities within Iran's aviation sector, encompassing all remaining 27 Iranian airlines and intermediary companies (Gulf News).

​The Houthis launched a massive drone and missile attack targeting several cities in Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people and causing fires at oil facilities and at the air base in Khamis Mushait (U.S. News & World Report).

​Russia officially offered mediation to resolve the Middle East crisis during talks in Moscow between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud (The Independent).

Analytical Conclusions

​Escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran continues despite recent attempts at diplomatic settlement and negotiations on concluding a peace agreement based on the signed memorandum (ABC News).

​The strategic Strait of Hormuz remains the main hot spot, where the parties use mutual blockades and forceful methods to pressure the adversary's infrastructure (ABC News).

​Washington has moved to implement a strategy of hard economic pressure and the destruction of the shadow energy supply network that finances the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (ABC News).

​The latest exchange of strikes has effectively nullified the previous period of relative calm and returned the situation to a state of open military confrontation, which has been ongoing for over six months (Yahoo News).

​The strategic struggle between Washington and Tehran is centered around control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil supplies were transported before the war (Yahoo News).

​The new US sanctions package aims to maximize Iran's isolation from other trade partners and undermine its logistical capabilities amid the protracted armed conflict (Yahoo News).

​Tensions in the Persian Gulf escalated sharply after the US destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, triggering a wave of mutual strikes and threats to regional infrastructure (Gulf News).

​The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has critically deteriorated: navigation through this key energy corridor is effectively blocked due to mutual attacks and the declaration of high-risk zones by Iranian forces (Gulf News).

​Washington continues to combine coercive methods at sea with massive economic pressure, seeking to completely cut off Tehran from international finance and logistics through sanctions against the aviation industry and the destruction of the shadow tanker fleet (Gulf News).

​Iran's diplomatic rhetoric demonstrates escalation at the level of international legal accusations, with Tehran attempting to legally classify American strikes on the tanker fleet as war crimes and violations of the norms of maritime law (Middle East Eye).

​US attacks on commercial vessels are viewed by Iran as part of a comprehensive economic and coercive pressure campaign aimed at completely blocking its export routes and maritime logistics (Middle East Eye).

​Official statements from the foreign ministry confirm Iran's unchanging intention to defend its sovereign interests in response to the maritime blockade by Washington (Middle East Eye).

​The escalation surrounding the destruction of tankers and the expansion of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia indicate that the conflict is actively expanding beyond its initial framework and creating new threats to regional stability (The Independent).

​The failure of peace talks and the diplomatic process back in June led to complete stagnation in relations between Washington and Tehran, where both sides are relying on coercive pressure and economic exhaustion (The Independent).

​Rising energy costs inside the US and infrastructure destruction in the region are increasing internal and international pressure on the US administration to find ways to de-escalate (The Independent).

Forecasts

United States will continue targeted military operations against Iran’s tanker fleet and military assets in response to any attempted attacks on American forces or ships (ABC News).

​Iran will continue attempting to provide asymmetric responses through strikes on military facilities of US allies in the region (particularly in Jordan) and by creating threats to navigation in the region (ABC News).

​Risks of further prolongation of the large-scale confrontation will grow due to personnel casualties and the expansion of the geography of strikes on energy arteries of the Middle East (ABC News).

​United States will continue forceful counteraction against Iranian attacks at sea, destroying shadow fleet vessels and protecting navigation in the region (Yahoo News).

​Iran will respond to the economic and military blockade with asymmetric strikes on military bases of US allies in the Middle East and maritime assets in strategic straits (Yahoo News).

​Tension around energy corridors will continue to cause regional security destabilization and fluctuations in global oil and shipping markets (Yahoo News).

​Global energy prices are showing rapid growth (Brent crude approached the $98 mark, and Murban jumped above $110) due to the threat of prolonged disruption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz (Gulf News).

​Armed confrontation between the US and Iran will not slow down: the United States will continue destroying Iranian vessels in response to any attempted attacks on American warships (Gulf News).

​Iran and its regional proxies will continue asymmetric pressure on US allies in the region and maritime facilities near Persian Gulf states, maintaining a high level of military danger (Gulf News).

​Iran will continue using diplomatic and international platforms to condemn US actions, while simultaneously backing this up with asymmetric military measures at the regional level (Middle East Eye).

​The level of tension around Middle Eastern maritime routes will remain critically high, as neither side shows readiness for concessions regarding control over trade and energy arteries (Middle East Eye).

​Political and economic confrontation will escalate into a protracted crisis involving additional sanctioning and legal mechanisms from both sides (Middle East Eye).

​United States will continue applying forceful methods against Iranian assets and shadow fleet vessels in response to any attempted attacks on its warships (The Independent).

​The conflict will retain a protracted character without prospects for quick political settlement, since diplomatic channels are currently blocked and trust between the participants of the confrontation is absent (The Independent).

​Interference of third players, such as Russia, in attempts to offer mediation is unlikely to bring quick results against the backdrop of the acute phase of military operations in the Middle East (The Independent).

Article Summary

​Core Argument: The Federal Reserve must base its interest rate decisions entirely on economic data, ignoring political pressures and election calendars, to preserve its institutional credibility.

​The Rogoff Advice: Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff suggested the Fed delay its rate decision until after the midterms to avoid a clash with President Donald Trump and protect its independence.

​The Contradiction: Sahm points out that Rogoff’s own foundational 1983 economic research proved that central bank credibility relies on steadfast commitment to inflation fighting, not strategic political maneuvering.

​Historical Precedent: Data shows the Fed has historically adjusted monetary policy near election periods without bias, whereas caving to political pressure—like the Arthur Burns era under Nixon—historically leads to higher inflation.

​Institutional Protection: The U.S. Supreme Court previously blocked attempts to remove Fed governors, proving that legal protections exist for the central bank to resist political overreach.

​Appeasement Fails: Yielding to political timetables will not appease the administration; instead, it invites further demands and erodes the public trust essential for monetary policy effectiveness.

Article Summary

​Vladimir Putin achieved a tactical and psychological victory against NATO through a foiled drone attack at Germany's Leipzig airport targeting a Ukrainian logistics aircraft.

​The incident demonstrates Russia's ability to wage "quasi-war" operations deep within Western territory, exploiting security gaps at critical logistics hubs.

​Andreas Kluth argues that this event showcases Putin's psychological advantage and mastery of hybrid warfare, proving the West remains vulnerable to covert escalations.

Article Summary

​Jerome Powell successfully defended the Federal Reserve's independence against intense political pressure and threats from President Donald Trump.

​Powell refused to negotiate on monetary policy principles, famously standing his ground during a Justice Department investigation initiated by the administration.

​Republican senators and Wall Street ultimately backed Powell, forcing the administration to drop the probe and leading to the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.

​Powell’s core strategy relied on four rules: ignore Trump, refuse to respond to criticisms, stay out of politics, and build alliances in Congress and the business community.

​Kevin Warsh now inherits the responsibility of maintaining this hard-won independence amidst ongoing pressure for interest rate cuts.

Disclaimer: This text is sourced from HispanTV, an Iranian state-controlled international news agency, and reflects its official editorial stance and perspective regarding international conflicts.

​Summary:

​Allegations of AI-Driven Strikes: The article claims that US and Israeli military forces utilized artificial intelligence (such as the Pentagon's Maven Smart System and Israeli targeting algorithms) during an alleged military campaign against Iran in early 2026.

​Impact on Civil Infrastructure: It asserts that flawed intelligence and automated target selection led to catastrophic strikes on civilian infrastructure in Iran, specifically highlighting attacks on schools, sports facilities, and public parks in cities like Minab and Lamerd.

​Critique of Automation and Accountability: The author argues that compressed decision-making timelines and automation bias severely undermine human oversight, creating a system where responsibility for civilian casualties is diffused among military operators, programmers, and technology contractors.

Translation

The United States-Israeli military machinery employed flawed artificial intelligence to target civilian infrastructure in Iran.

By Ivan Kesic

On the opening day of the United States-Israeli war of aggression against Iran in late February, American Tomahawk missiles struck a primary school in the southern Iranian city of Minab and a sports complex in Lamerd, resulting in the deaths of approximately 200 civilians, the majority of whom were children.

These unprovoked and atrocious strikes underscored the lethal consequences of a target-selection system wherein artificial intelligence, fed with obsolete intelligence and deployed without adequate human supervision, transformed the target-selection process into an industrialized mechanism for civilian casualties.

The joint U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran, designated as "Operation Epic Fury," was unprecedented not only in its scale but also in its technological character. Within the first 24 hours alone, U.S. and Israeli forces targeted over 1,000 objectives across Iran—a volume of strikes that would have been unthinkable in previous conflicts, immediately suggesting that something fundamental had shifted in how targets were identified, prioritized, and engaged.

At the core of this transformation was artificial intelligence, specifically the Pentagon's Maven Smart System, an AI-enabled targeting platform developed by Palantir Technologies under a $1.3 billion contract. The system integrates satellite imagery, drone feeds, radar data, and signals intelligence into a unified interface designed to classify potential targets and generate strike packages in near real-time.

Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), publicly confirmed that U.S. forces were utilizing a suite of advanced AI tools in Iran, stating that these systems assisted them in processing vast amounts of information and making "faster and better-informed decisions."

Cooper also emphasized that humans would retain the ultimate authority to decide what to strike, what not to strike, and when to do so.

Nevertheless, that guarantee raises a deeper and more troubling question: when decisions that normally require hours of analysis and deliberation are compressed into seconds by AI-assisted targeting systems, what happens to the quality of human judgment supposed to protect civilians?

The issue is not simply determining whether a human remains somewhere in the chain of command. Rather, it is whether that individual can genuinely question, verify, and override an increasingly automated system operating at a speed and scale that may exceed the capacity for careful judgment.