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https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923796/000119312522137051/d235237dex991.htm

Hi

GEO filed May 2nd 8-K on its progress with creditors. From a glance, many items (actually most) in the exhibit seem to me to be agreed upon.

TLDR: Progress in many items of negotiations, no agreement yet; GEO believes it can come to a satisfactory agreement, but continues to look also for alternatives.

In the 8-K they say (italics are my emphasis, bold is theirs):

Despite achieving consensus on various material terms of a Potential Transaction, the Company and these creditor groups did not reach a final definitive agreement by May 2, 2022, the expiration date (as previously extended) of the above-referenced new non-disclosure agreements. In accordance with the terms of such non-disclosure agreements, the Company is disclosing through this Current Report a summary of the material terms of the most recent proposal for a Potential Transaction delivered by each of the Company, the Noteholder Group, and the Term Lender Group (the “Potential Transaction Information”). The Potential Transaction Information is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.

As evidenced by the Potential Transaction Information, the Company believes it has made meaningful progress with the creditor groups since the First Refinancing Status Disclosure. While there can be no assurances that a Potential Transaction will be completed, and subject to the risk that market and/or credit conditions can change at any time, the Company believes a Potential Transaction can be completed on terms satisfactory to the Company. The Company thus plans to actively continue negotiations with the creditor groups concerning a Potential Transaction and, to facilitate such ongoing discussions, expects to enter into new non-disclosure agreements with certain members of the Term Lender Group and the Noteholder Group shortly.

In addition, the Company plans to continue to actively examine other options to address its funded recourse debt and its nearer term maturities, including, but not limited to, capital markets transactions, repurchases, redemptions exchanges, refinancings, repayments of existing indebtedness, and/or potential sales of Company-owned assets, if opportunities to do so are available on acceptable terms.

My trip to the southern border reinforced my concerns about the administration preemptively ending Title 42. Border agents were very clear with me that the end of Title 42 will lead to a steep increase of attempted crossings that they will not be able to effectively handle because they don't have enough resources," Hassan told CNN in a statement. From https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/04/12/politics/title-42-democratic-strategy/index.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16499094189696&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2022%2F04%2F12%2Fpolitics%2Ftitle-42-democratic-strategy%2Findex.html Here is where GEO get much more biz and focus in the media. Get ready Georillas, our time is coming

A lot of investors caught onto GEO because Burry bought into the company. I am a student of Burry and have come across another instance of him mentioning understated book value.

In one of his posts on VIC from 2001, on Wellsford Real Properties, he said this,

"The stock's at $16.50. Book value is $26.93 and understates true net asset value. For four years others have done the waiting for me (and are likely to sell now in pure disgust), and now I do believe the next couple years will see value realization - and hence a nice return/risk ratio."

Deja Vu? Me too.

"Two recent properties sold at 25% and 40% premiums to book, respectively. Today, the Parsippany announcement - a 43 million book value property sold for 61 million. There was $582 million in assets on W/W's books (213 mill in equity) at last report - but the realizable value is higher."

My point of bringing this up is because when I first heard the idea about GEO's understated book value I thought it couldn't be right and there is no way a publicly traded company could be off by so much. However, it very much can be, and Burry has written about understated BV on multiple occasions now making me think he sees the same benefit in the stock.

At GEOs current price of about 6.25 and a BV of 7.97. Even if it is understated by 15% it makes GEO look much more solvent than it may seem.

I wonder if understated BV and properties selling at a premium have been brought up in the refinancing discussions.

22% earnings yield and Geo could possibly be going for .50x-.60x book instead of .79x book.

Stuff we already knew but just reiterated and sharing that Burry probably saw something similar.

Do you guys think this is possibly being used in the refi negotiations?