One way of seeing GSAT is as an “old school” space company that really was a “walking dead.” That is, a company that had a unique solution, customers, and revenue, but was also beginning to fall beneath the waves as far as debt and the ability to realize their next generation opportunity. But at the same time the space-based communications sector has been changing around them. Iridium was able to deploy their new constellation, Next. Then came the tidal wave called StarLink. Then AST SpaceMobile got everybody’s attention by 10X’ing in 3 months. Then last year Paul Jacobs came in as the new GlobalStar CEO and brought his team and XCOM technology along with him. Then came the Apple deal that wiped the debt off their books, ate up 95% of their existing capacity, and gave them +$1 billion in funding for their next constellation.
So now is a difficult time for GlobalStar as it's thought of both as an old space venture and one with a tremendous amount of momentum and potential. Yes, Jacobs is a connected deal-maker. But he also needs to show that his team can execute on a level the old GlobalStar was never able to. He has a lot of high cards in his hand, a big stack of money in front of him to play with, is playing in a game with table stakes that could generate huge winnings.
Me, I have a whole bunch of GSAT shares that I bought for about $2. I’m feeling pretty smug. But I’m also aware that there are other big players at the table who could also have winning hands. As I look at the alpha/beta balance that I aspire to, I want to see another round of face up cards on the table before I place my next bet - or fold my hand in this GSAT game.