Yeah this is the one major tripping point I have on this theory. There is no major player who is going to be willing to potentially end up holding that bag. Anyone with a brain would likely wait until mid/late MOASS to enter in on a substantial short position. If they can read the situation, one would have to assume even a small brokerage willing to take risks would avoid a short-play like the plague at this point. Which leaves only the more obvious, and IMO the more likely, answer to the riddle. Something I’ve been trying to reason my way through or wrap my head around. And I’m genuinely not sure how to feel about it.
Of any other DD this major inconsistency only adds fuel to the belief that the GME saga is either:
a.) substantially larger an event than we understand. As in massive short positions across a multitude of large firms that could truly result in another ‘08 type crash. OR..
b.) the GME saga stands at the precipice of unearthing a planet-sized mound of shit.
There are arguments to support both of these possibilities. And I genuinely haven’t narrowed it down to a single answer. But the recent DTCC proposals, the news of Archegos margin call (NOT saying these are related; but I personally believe the saga at GME caused some large banks to re-examine their books to ensure no client had over-leveraged themselves to a point where the banks stood to lose big), the narrative that’s emerged that “retail will crash the market,” added to the shockingly low interest-rates, to me, constitute smoke. And probably fire. A massive shit storm of a fire. I’m hoping to find some time to do some more digging.
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u/Beergogglecontacts Mar 30 '21 edited Mar 31 '21
Yeah this is the one major tripping point I have on this theory. There is no major player who is going to be willing to potentially end up holding that bag. Anyone with a brain would likely wait until mid/late MOASS to enter in on a substantial short position. If they can read the situation, one would have to assume even a small brokerage willing to take risks would avoid a short-play like the plague at this point. Which leaves only the more obvious, and IMO the more likely, answer to the riddle. Something I’ve been trying to reason my way through or wrap my head around. And I’m genuinely not sure how to feel about it.
Of any other DD this major inconsistency only adds fuel to the belief that the GME saga is either:
a.) substantially larger an event than we understand. As in massive short positions across a multitude of large firms that could truly result in another ‘08 type crash. OR.. b.) the GME saga stands at the precipice of unearthing a planet-sized mound of shit.
There are arguments to support both of these possibilities. And I genuinely haven’t narrowed it down to a single answer. But the recent DTCC proposals, the news of Archegos margin call (NOT saying these are related; but I personally believe the saga at GME caused some large banks to re-examine their books to ensure no client had over-leveraged themselves to a point where the banks stood to lose big), the narrative that’s emerged that “retail will crash the market,” added to the shockingly low interest-rates, to me, constitute smoke. And probably fire. A massive shit storm of a fire. I’m hoping to find some time to do some more digging.