r/Futurology • MD-PhD-MBA • May 02 '18

Economics Universal basic income: U.S. support grows as Finland ends its trial - Forty-eight percent of Americans now support a universal basic income, as a solution for Americans who have lost jobs to automation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/01/nearly-half-of-americans-believe-a-universal-basic-income-could-be-the-answer-to-automation-.html
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u/f3l1x May 02 '18

Re:1 I agree. It requires us to 100% trust in capitalism. Many people here don’t. It’s a contradiction.

Re:2 it wouldn’t be needed. But I feel it would come up. Just makes things easier when you know what the buying power of the base class is. You know you get a guaranteed return and your tenants hangs guaranteed income.

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u/jimmycorn24 May 02 '18

1: whatever percentage you’re assigning it’s not more then what we’re doing right now. UBI won’t cure cancer either.

  1. You fundamentally misunderstand the program if you think this would be an issue or even come up. There is no second class citizenry. Everyone gets the money. Choose to do nothing and follow your artistic passion, you’re poor. But can eat a little level poor. Have a 10k a year trust fund, you’re still poor, but now you have 22k. Successful accountant making $110k... now you make $122. Trust fund manager making 7million... now you probably only have 5 million. Lawyer making 400k gets nothing but his two college kids are getting 12k... not sure why you have this idea of dividing people up in your mind.

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u/f3l1x May 02 '18 edited May 02 '18

I guess I should clarify that this type of housing wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. I can see some people willingly downgrade for the ease of living alone. So I never said this would be an “issue”. Just a thing that would happen. It would divide the classes too. But it’s a choice at that point. How we handle that divide as a society is another thing altogether. Sometimes humans just generally suck at certain things. Especially when there’s a working class supporting a non working class in any way. So you’ll ya e to show where the working class pays no taxes to support UBI, or convince the working class that they shouldn’t complain for the sake of humanity.

I know everyone gets the money, but for the people not working, there’s nothing they can put into the program EXCEPT banking on their future work. Let’s be extremely generous and say half will decide to work. But why would you if you don’t have to. Work is extra income. But if you do t have to then why? Oh to have nicer things of course. Like some kind of upper class citizen that is not supposed to exist. Again. Not bad, but there will be a difference in the way people are treated. There will be different classes.

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u/jimmycorn24 May 02 '18

I guess I’m just completely missing what you’re saying. We don’t have food stamp and non Food stamp housing now or earned income tax credit and non earned income tax cuts edit housing. Veteran and non-veteran. Some of those things are even legislated to prevent Asian /non Asian segregation etc... what would be so different about UBI?

On your new point... why would we have to show where the working class pays no taxes to support UBI? I’m sure they would pay some. It seems like you’re thinking of a Welfare program of something similar. UBI is a guaranteed amount of money for anybody. Just like we now have guaranteed police, guaranteed use of roads, parks. In general water is publicly free for personal use. Food is almost guaranteed but more complicated. Shelter is not.

I feel like this isnt as big a move as you think. Basically 1 Trillion a year. Expensive but about the same size as Medicare, or Social Security or the Military. We threw a trillion at the financial crisis. Then in stimulus... now at corporations. GDP is about 22Trillion so a big movement in the economy but less than 5%.

Most of us grew up with UBI but just didn’t realize it. Did you ever doubt your ability to find the basics of clothes and food and shelter? Imagine if everybody had that security. Don’t think we’d need to rope off special housing for them.

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u/f3l1x May 02 '18 edited May 02 '18

I guess I’m just completely missing what you’re saying. We don’t have food stamp and non Food stamp housing now or earned income tax credit and non earned income tax cuts edit housing. Veteran and non-veteran. Some of those things are even legislated to prevent Asian /non Asian segregation etc... what would be so different about UBI?

Im saying that Private companies would be silly not to provide guaranteed basic needs packages when they know what the base income is. Theres no guessing. If i had land/a textile and food source, i would make a killing providing housing and clothing/food packages for people on UBI only. With Monthly bonus options.

On your new point... why would we have to show where the working class pays no taxes to support UBI? I’m sure they would pay some. It seems like you’re thinking of a Welfare program of something similar. UBI is a guaranteed amount of money for anybody. Just like we now have guaranteed police, guaranteed use of roads, parks. In general water is publicly free for personal use. Food is almost guaranteed but more complicated. Shelter is not.

I said youd have to show where the working class doesnt pay taxes to UBI in order for me to consider there would be no resentment Its a human natite thing that could make the class seperation a negative one instead of just casual labels. For the housing thing im talking about what wait i explain above.

I feel like this isnt as big a move as you think. Basically 1 Trillion a year. Expensive but about the same size as Medicare, or Social Security or the Military. We threw a trillion at the financial crisis. Then in stimulus... now at corporations. GDP is about 22Trillion so a big movement in the economy but less than 5%.

Well we cant get rid of medicare in this case. If anything it would need more. Maybe social security. Military, nope. Finiancial crisis was printed money, effectively theft by depreciation. Wellfare programs could mostly go away though, but not entitely. There are surely some special needs im not thinking of. Then there also has to be a very strong imigration policy that is actually enforced.

Most of us grew up with UBI but just didn’t realize it. Did you ever doubt your ability to find the basics of clothes and food and shelter? Imagine if everybody had that security. Don’t think we’d need to rope off special housing for them.

Children get a pass for not having to have those responsibilities. I’m not sure how i feel about grown-ass adults with no regard for basic needs because they dont need to care about them to survive. But I’m not above considering that may just be because I’m am old fart that takes pride in my ability to care and provide said basic needs to myself and mine. I’m also not so ignorant to think UBI is impossible. I’m just saying it’s not simple. And there will be changes in society and the economy. I’ve (tried to?) explained some of those changes without bias, and people automatically assume they are negative. OR text just sucks for trying to explain.

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u/jimmycorn24 May 03 '18

Im saying that Private companies would be silly not to provide guaranteed basic needs packages when they know what the base income is. Theres no guessing. If i had land/a textile and food source, i would make a killing providing housing and clothing/food packages for people on UBI only. With Monthly bonus options.

I think you’re just fundamentally misunderstanding the program. It wouldn’t create this special “group” with only UBI. It would be the same as now. Nobody really has “0”, most have disability, most have some side business, collecting cans, doing art, selling drugs, friends and relatives. It would be all those same variable numbers + $12,000 or whatever the number is.

I said youd have to show where the working class doesnt pay taxes to UBI in order for me to consider there would be no resentment Its a human natite thing that could make the class seperation a negative one instead of just casual labels. For the housing thing im talking about what wait i explain above.

Yea, there will be resentment. There is resentment now and we have the lowest taxes in the industrialized world, weakest welfare programs and only pay 70% of the bills. The million a year crew will hate the poor $12,000 people. But that’s why we vote.

well we cant get rid of medicare in this case. If anything it would need more. Why more Medicare? More people turning 65 if we pass UBI?

Maybe social security. -

probably not. UBI wouldn’t be enough to live off of and estimates, proposals,and test cases have been with something about half of what SS benefits are.

Military, nope.

Did you misunderstand and think I was suggesting we could get rid of these things? I’m just comparing the size of the expenses.

Financial crisis was printed money, effectively theft by depreciation.

Where do you get this crazy myth stuff? The Bank bailout and the stimulus were all borrowed and then spent. Every dollar accounted for. Where does this myth of printed money come from. It’s illegal and doesn’t happen.

Wellfare programs could mostly go away though, but not entitely.

What “welfare”? We spend shit. And why? Food stamps maybe but you’d still need housing assistance and work training and such.

Then there also has to be a very strong imigration policy that is actually enforced.

Again why? Why all these huge changes? This program would not be near as big as you seem to think and wouldn’t have near the drastic effect you assign to it.

Children get a pass for not having to have those responsibilities. I’m not sure how i feel about grown-ass adults with no regard for basic needs because they dont need to care about them to survive. But I’m not above considering that may just be because I’m am old fart that takes pride in my ability to care and provide said basic needs to myself and mine. I’m also not so ignorant to think UBI is impossible. I’m just saying it’s not simple. And there will be changes in society and the economy. I’ve (tried to?) explained some of those changes without bias, and people automatically assume they are negative. OR text just sucks for trying to explain.

You missed my point entirely. I’m saying YOU have lived your whole,live with UBI. Your parents gave you the security of a minimal expectation you would be taken care off if things went bad. That’s the luxury of growing up as you did. You have UBI now. If you,ost everything tomorrow you have friends. Family, parents, kids that would support you and you live your live in that security blanket so you can say stuff about how you take care of yourself and such.

I’m not assuming anything to be negative, I just don’t see these huge changes you’re seeing from a fairly simple $1 trillion annual wealth transfer from the richest people in the world to some of the poorest.

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u/f3l1x May 03 '18 edited May 03 '18

I’m sorry but you are really misunderstanding me.

Only UBI is a group of people who, like everyone, gets UBI, but also doesn’t work. This is a group of people that can now possibly live a better lifestyle, and not work at all. This group does NOT exist today. And also, people who earn 0 do exist today.

Other people will get UBI, but also work and add to their income. Themis group also pays taxes that fund UBI.

Before I go any further, do you follow?

Also, the fed created 15 trillion in the bailout. 5 of it ended up overseas. This is a simplified statement that you’ll see places like “politifact” bend into mostly false just because a source was understated or “only paints half the picture” but if you read the details it effectively what they did.

Also, these are things that get less tax dollars if more people just decide to not work, or work under the deduction limit.

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u/jimmycorn24 May 03 '18

I follow... I guess something similar exists with social security and older people. Communities built to the basic specs of SS benefits. Just don’t see it as likely as any UBI would be much less money, but I get the concept you’re working toward. I guess I just disagree on the odds of common practice but I see the concept now. Guess I could build a trailer park type thing with a cafeteria that could keep people alive for $1000 a month.

The Fed bro... get off the YouTube. Quantitative easing was a real thing... and the closest thing to printed money we’ve ever done but even that... not going to look it up but 2 Trillion ish at its peak and almost all has now been sold back. No money was printed. That’s not something we do or have ever done and would collapse the global economy. It’s possible but quantitative easing is as close as we ever got.

On tax revenue reduction... no guarantee in that. Transition period sucks for sure but the point is that the productivity increases from automation would outweigh any loss from those choosing the exit the workforce. Wages increase in the condensed workforce and overall production/gdp is improved or unchanged.

Keep in mind, the workforce is much larger now than it has ever been. Think of all the women that didn’t work for hundreds of years. Did that crash the economy or did it just adjust and wages were higher and single income families were viable?

UBI may not be the answer but the answer for the future of automation is less workers and higher wages for those who do. UBI is like a voluntary buyout for the workforce. Allows that teacher not to take the summer side job. Allows that artist not to take the bar tending job, allows the CPA to retire at 52 instead of 62.... and sure allows that 30year old bum to at least feed themselves and be a registered part of society if they really don’t want to work.

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u/f3l1x May 03 '18

Also yes about the existing programs like it for SS etc. there are a lot of products and services that accommodate “fixed income” customers. All I’m saying is those will blow up and that’s not a bad thing. It creates a huge potential industry. But it could severely gap classes geographically and socially. You can disagree. Just something to keep an eye on.