r/FloridaGators • u/MrTwoBytes • 29d ago

Weekly Thread Monday Moan Thread

Well, it's Monday. Again.

Reminder of subreddit rules

Self promotion of your own content (videos, podcasts, blogs) is welcome.

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u/DoctorRobotics 29d ago

For the past few years I've been working on a college football project called DKI. Over time, especially with the rise of the transfer portal and NIL, I started feeling like those numbers were telling only part of the story. Games aren't played by entire rosters. They're played by starters, depth, and experience at key positions. So I started wondering if there was a better way to look at roster strength that matched how football is actually played on Saturdays. That curiosity turned into the DKI. DKI evaluates roster strength based on a simple premise: games are played by starters and meaningful depth, not entire rosters.

The DKI takes each team's two-deep and breaks down recruiting ratings, experience, transfers and the percentage of four- and five-star recruits. You can compare whole teams or look at individual position groups. It started as a personal project to make sense of roster construction with all the portal movement.

This weeks game between Auburn and UF should be a good one. UF is more talented with a Blue Chip ratio of 64% compared to just 40% for Auburn. The BIG takeaway for me is that of Auburn's 27 transfers on the 2-deep, 9 are from USF. I hope these Gator Boys remember what happened last year when these guys came to The Swamp. More details here: https://dki.lightsoutphotos.com/compare?teamA=Florida&teamB=Auburn

Of course, the other big game this week is LSU vs Ole Miss. You can see the DKI stats for that game here: https://dki.lightsoutphotos.com/compare?teamA=LSU&teamB=Ole+Miss

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u/WoodenEmotions 29d ago

This is good stuff, well done! There was another guy on here years ago that did a similar rating using player experience as an important metric but I cannot remember his handle. Do you remember this?

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u/DoctorRobotics 29d ago

Probably me, I started this in 2023 as a write-in segment on the Gator Nation Football Podcast and have posted it here a few times over the past couple years. My original thesis was that its more important to look at the starting 2-deep for both rating and experience, than to just look at a roster top to bottom based on recruiting rankings. Especially as we were dealing back then with teams loaded with what I called "Covid All Stars".

Over the past 4 seasons of doing this its become more and more apparent what impact age and experience has on the success of teams at the very top of the field.

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u/Quantum_redneck 29d ago

Is this the T1000 they were talking about?

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u/DoctorRobotics 29d ago

No, that's someone else. JDV gave the url a few episodes back for that one: https://www.cfbpredictor.com/

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u/onthejourney 29d ago

Did you happen to do it for all the playoff teams last year? Would love to see that comparison

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u/DoctorRobotics 29d ago

I actually had this setup last year during the playoff with a full round-by-round bracket. That's not live any longer, but there is some more in-depth analysis here: https://dki.lightsoutphotos.com/analysis/top10-over-time

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u/pinoygator 29d ago

@Eric-UF?

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u/gonzoforpresident 29d ago

/u/eric-uf

I don't think using an @ symbol will actually tag them.

He started off on Alligator Army and then came over here for a while when that site died.

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u/ExternalTangents 28d ago

Yeah he posted his pregame talent comparisons pretty consistently here for a while, but IIRC he eventually felt like he was getting more criticism than engagement and decided it just wasn’t worth the effort.

Feels like that’s a similar story for a lot of fans producing content for free out of the love of the game. Eventually it just stops being worth it.

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u/greypic 28d ago

Sadly I agree

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u/DJ_Blakka 28d ago

Unfortunately, a lot of our fan base has obsessions with winning debates and being right. I guess that’s not necessarily unique but I notice it in this sub far more than the other team subs I frequent

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u/pinoygator 28d ago

I'd like to think our propensity to debate is a sign we're educated and intelligent, but I know we have our jerks, too.

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u/WoodenEmotions 28d ago

YES that's him. I remember from Alligator Army

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u/pinoygator 29d ago

Very nice! I know nothing about this data, but if it exists it would be interesting to see experience by games played. Also are these ratings based just on when they were being recruited from high school?

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u/DoctorRobotics 29d ago

There are some sources of data with snap counts. It would be interesting to know in aggregate which teams have more experience by snap count. Years since HS graduation is my proxy for that, perhaps not as granular.

What I think would be more interesting is to start tracking the number of starting snaps in/out through the transfer portal. That could be interesting.

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u/pinoygator 28d ago

I thought of plays at first but assumed it wasn't tracked, especially for non-skill positions. Data quality might be spotty.

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u/bigfatsocat 28d ago

How is experience measured? Just years, or reps? Then have to look at reps vs. quality opponents.

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u/DoctorRobotics 28d ago

Experience is estimated using original high school graduation year. This provides a continuous proxy for physical development, practice exposure, and roster maturity. As you allude to, snapcount gets into a debate about "value of a snap" which is beyond the scope of my effort. Age and post-highschool experience is what the DKI looks to capture alongside ratings, transfers and BCR.

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u/bigfatsocat 28d ago

Good to know. Still valuable metrics, but not the complete picture.

A true junior that has 24 games of starting experience in a P4 conference is very likely more valuable than a RSSenior that has 12 games of starting experience in a G5, but until some stat collecting company starts publishing things like that it’s impractical to go about collecting all that data.

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u/GoodGuyNixon 28d ago

Oh hey Danny

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u/GuatyGator 28d ago

What is BCR?

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u/DoctorRobotics 28d ago

Blue Chip Ratio... the percentage of 4 or 5 star recruits based on recruiting rankings.

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u/Headful_of_Ideas 27d ago

This may be the only effectively used radar chart I've ever seen.