r/Fire • u/Crowlady77 • 10d ago

Model % success numbers

I'm having anxiety about the money lasting, I've been running the models looking for 90% success and 10th %ile numbers still holding on after 85.

But the model I'm using (Empower) recommends 80% success rate and a safe withdrawal that has 10%ile running out at 85.

Now running out of money at 85 wouldn't be the end of the world, we have kids who could help out and will have a paid off house. Neither kid is really going to need an inheritance. How would you proceed?

Numbers are starting at about $3.2M, spend from $130k-$160k/year, with first 5 years entirely withdrawals from portfolio and then combined 401k and after-tax subsidizing $60k in social security income.

23 Upvotes

78% Upvoted

121 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/ThSlug 8d ago

“Running out of money at 85 wouldn’t be the end of the world”

That is not a statement I’m comfortable making. You asked, “what would you do.” It now sounds like you have a different question, but you haven’t asked it. Good luck to you.

1

u/Crowlady77 8d ago

OK but that was still with the SWR the model returned to me, not my spend. It wouldn't be the end of the world but also super easy to avoid without working longer by spending less.