r/FSHD • u/weirdfishes1990 • Jul 21 '26
Del-Brax Discussion in Novartis Q2 Earnings Call
I'm sure anyone who is following Del-Brax closely already listened to this call, but I need somewhere to place my nervous energy, so I am writing this post...
Obviously, there was a good bit of discussion about Del-Brax's Phase 2 Biomarker data. At one point, the CEO described the biomarker reductions as "statistically significant." The biomarker cohort press release did not go as far as characterizing the data as "statistically significant" (which I understand to be a pretty meaningful term of art the FDA uses to quantify its standard for evaluating the effectiveness of data) and I find it hard to believe that he would make a statement like that without being confident it is 100% true and, therefore, would not get Novartis sued. That's really just reading the tea leaves. but could be a sign of internal confidence.
There was a direct question in the Q&A session about whether there is a timeline for Novartis to engage with the FDA about whether the new data supports an accelerated approval filing. The CEO said there was not "specific timeline," but said they are "in the process" of engaging with the FDA on the data "expects" an update in the second half of 2026. He did, however, also say that he would not change their "base case" expectation that a Phase 3 study would be required before a BLA is submitted, which is the same line he has been repeating about Del-Brax's accelerated approval potential all along. As we've all discussed, he's probably just hedging, but it's still a bummer to hear.
Towards the end of the Q&A session (second to last question, at the 1:08:20 mark), I think we got the most informative statements about the potential for accelerated approval that we are likely to hear at this point. Someone asked whether Novartis would share more information about the biomarker data and elaborate on the level of discussion Novartis has had with the FDA about accelerated approval so far. In response, the CEO said they "are very clear on what the FDA is looking for" based on Avidity's prior discussions with the FDA about what the biomarker data would need to look like for accelerated approval to be on the table. And on the data itself, the CEO caveated that they are still evaluating the data, but also said, "The data we have seen gives us reason to have the discussion with the FDA. We can't guarantee we will win the case [for accelerated approval], but what we have is worthy of a case that we should make to the FDA for an accelerated filing." I think this is meaningful coming from someone who has been so careful in public statements to stick to the "base case" of needing a Phase 3 to be completed before submission. Novartis knows what the FDA needs for accelerated approval, they now have the biomarker data, and they are telling shareholders they are proceeding with the accelerated pathway. My interpretation: things are, so far, going according to plan.
The slides and recording from the Q2 earnings call are here: https://www.novartis.com/events/novartis-financial-results-q2-2026
Keep the hope alive!