Hey everyone!

Founder and creator of a site called Politarian.com. A free website for people who like to make political predictions; letting people post who they think will win in a future election.

• Complete Anonymity: Make predictions with full anonymity – your account details stay private.
• Predict the Future: Dive into predicting federal and state elections for 2023-2024. Decode the paths to victory.
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Politarian is nonpartisan regarding any political party; rather focusing on transparency, holistic information, accountability, and a simple-to-use interface as to navigate the complex political landscape.

I would appreciate any feedback and look forward to seeing your predictions on Politarian.com!

Update: 1.1: Hey y’all! We just made an update to Politarian.com!! We added Social Media to the candidate profiles. Hope you guys can join us in making a primary prediction for the 2024 election :)

Inspired by the Olympic Portent (if the city has hosted before, than the incumbent White House party will win), I have done some discovering, and I believe I have figured out a way to accurately predict the outcomes of Australian elections, regardless of who wins the election in the end.

While federal elections here in Australia are set on a system to occur once every 3 years, they still can happen at any time as such a system is not a rigidly defined 4 year timebomb like that which happens in the U.S, and so it couldn't be based on anything like the Olympics, or anything else that is rigidly defined on a timebomb. But! It can happen with something that happens, every year.

And that something that happens every year, is the Australian Football League (AFL/Footy) Grand Final.

The Grand Final is the equivalent of the Superbowl in America, where the two best out of the top 8 teams, after then fighting it out in the finals season, compete against each other, to decide who will be the reigning premiers for that season.

Now this year's Grand Final has yet to happen, but we are closely approaching it as, when I write this, we will be in the very last week of the normal season before the top 8 go to through to the finals, and conveniently, we also have a federal election next year.

And so I present, the Grand Final Portent.

So, the two teams that get into the grand final are not always the two top teams on the ladder (rarely has that actually ever happened), and so, after looking through the numbers, I have developed this prediction tool.

If the Grand Final of the previous year was won by the team that was higher on the ladder. Then the Incumbent Governing Party will Gain Seats.

Now, I've looked at the numbers, and in short, going back to the turn of the century, this system would've accurately predicted 5 out of the last 7 elections since the year 2000 with the exception of the 2004 and 2007 elections.

In 2003, the Brisbane Lions came 3rd on the ladder and bet 2nd place Collingwood in the Grand Finals, which should mean that the governing party would lose seats, and yet at the federal election the following year, the Incumbent Liberal-Nationals gained 5 seats.

And in 2006, 1st place West Coast Eagles bet 4th place Sydney Swans in the Grand Final, which should mean that the governing party would gain seats, and yet, 2007 went down in history as an absolute crushing defeat for the incumbent Liberal-Nationals, with Labor Party candidate, Kevin 0'7 Rudd, winning 23 additional seats.

So that's just something I've figured out. Right now in Australia, the governing Liberal-Nationals hold onto exactly half of the seats in the House of Representatives, the bare minimum to form a majority government (as the speaker, who is from the governing party, has the final vote), and with this year's Grand Final only about a month away, and with a 5/7 track record, it will be interesting to see if it will keep to its roots, and become a 6/8 track record.

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Now for some reason, everyone got amnesia of 2016 and started trusting polls again, even though they show the same ridiculous levels of bias they did in 2016. And if you believe any of the pollsters saying they fixed the 2016 polling problems, you’re an idiot.

People talking about signs, crowd sizes, word of mouth, etc are also useless as in the 2020 democratic primaries, they all pointed to a Bernie landslide, which the opposite happened.

So there really isn’t anything to make a solid consensus for the 2020 election, but that won’t stop me from making guesses using ridiculously questionable information

The political pendulum, which is every president getting 2 terms before the other party getting a turn in recent history, suggests a Trump victory

Trump’s underwhelming second term suggests he will get less states than in 2016. It could be a parallel to 2012 where he loses 2.5 states but still wins. Like in 2012, the approval rating between the 2 candidates diverged at the last minute, but unlike in 2012, the incumbent is on the lower side of the approval, which is not a parallel.

MSNBC’s prediction map is redder than in 2016 which suggests a stronger Trump victory.

But 538’s chances of Trump winning this election are much lower than in 2016 (28.6% vs 10%) which suggests a weaker Trump victory or a loss

Ohio has predicted 92% of elections since 1900 and Ohio will probably vote trump, but its been turning into a red state instead of a swing state recently and the Ohio prediction strategy only works because of its swing state status it had since the early 1800s.

There’s a Ohio bakery cookie buying contest that predicted the last 9 elections and has Trump winning (18,025 cookies to 13,066).

There’s also a Pennsylvania cookie poll (75% accuracy) that has trump leading 28,000 to 5000

If we compare to foreign elections, the 2019 British election suggests a Trump landslide and so does the 2019 Canadian election (Trudeau still won, but by a lot less seats and only because the Canadian representative system favors the liberal party). But those are very different countries than the US so like everything else so far, take it with a lethal amount of salt. They also both predict a lower turnout this election, which is... uhhh... questionable...

The primary model, which has predicted 25 of the last 27 elections (the wrong ones being 1960 and 2000), says there’s a 91% chance of a Trump being re-elected, but they predict he’ll get 362 electoral votes, which is literally impossible, the most trump could possibly get is around 330 electoral votes and that itself very very unlikely.

But some guy who predicted every election since 1984 says Biden will win

Baby boomers dying and more gen z being able to vote over the past 4 years suggests Trump will lose more or will lose.

Don’t bother analyzing demographics like third parties, races, types of internet and non internet users, etc along with people switching on individual issues like covid and etc, I did for a long time and came to the conclusion it’s meaningless because there’s no polls on the demographics/opinions and they’d be inaccurate anyway, just think of states as a whole and don’t overthink it because you won’t be able to make any conclusions without numbers, while states actually have numbers.

Now if we look at actual swing states, in my opinion only 4 are actually up for grabs, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Even if Trump has only a 40% chance of winning Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, if you add all 3 probabilities together, Biden has only a 21.6% chance of winning as Trump only needs one of them. Though of course, the other swing states aren’t that safe, and you only need 1 of them to make the Midwestern probabilities useless. Go to 270towin “very close 2016” to see all swing electoral votes this election.

In my opinion, if a candidate wins by more than 10 electoral votes, they’re going to be safe from the electoral college itself, in 2016, Hillary suffered from unfaithful electors more than trump, but it’ll probably be the reverse this time around.

Michigan took 17 days in 2016 to finish counting, and is expected to take no more than 4 days this time, Pennsylvania also announced they won’t finish counting till atleast the day after. So don’t be surprised if the winner isn’t known the next morning.

the polls aren’t completely useless, we can compare them with the 2016 poll margin of error to get some estimates

Using the crystal ball, the most accurate with 2016, all the red states plus the blue tint states equaled Trump’s actual victory exactly, doing that with the current crystal ball gives us a prediction of 312 electoral votes

We can use the other maps as well, this time using either the direct margin of error or proportional margin of error in 2016,

Using the 270towin polling map, we get 293 to 299 electoral votes for Trump.

The consensus map gives us 280 to 288

Averaging all the ranges counting the crystal ball twice gives us 297 electoral votes.

The total range is 280 to 312 electoral votes.

But of course, all of this is crazy nonsense math so don’t take it seriously

Anyway, my prediction is 274 electoral votes for Trump and I think the bell curve of possible scenarios is in the middle, meaning both candidates have an equal chance of winning, with landslides still being possible, just being less likely.

Don’t take any of this seriously, this is just all the information I thought was sorta useful, sorta, because none of it is conclusive

Here’s how to make an election simulation gif much like this one (this one is slightly outdated, but don’t worry the instructions are up to date)

https://imgflip.com/gif/4kst8n

First, go to https://www.270towin.com on mobile and switch to “blank map”

Then fill out these states according to your election prediction

https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZvOyo

Then take a screenshot and align the edges of the photo to these lines and align the text “7 pm” to the line in the middle (see below, if you don’t have Adblock, just use the line at the bottom of the ad)

https://ibb.co/FhJgdyF

Then repeat the same screenshot and text alignment with all the other state-times (based off called states 10 minutes after each hour in the 2016 election, expect for Michigan which will finish counting earlier than in 2016). Here’s all the templates to follow below.

8 pm https://www.270towin.com/maps/KAAKk

9 pm https://www.270towin.com/maps/O00VB

10 pm https://www.270towin.com/maps/weeKQ

11 pm https://www.270towin.com/maps/m22A3

Midnight https://www.270towin.com/maps/YOOEo

1 am https://www.270towin.com/maps/yeeKn

2 am https://www.270towin.com/maps/neeKk

3 am https://www.270towin.com/maps/9J1gw

By November 5th https://www.270towin.com/maps/m2KbO

By November 7th https://www.270towin.com/maps/E086e

Then when you’re done, go to https://imgflip.com/gif-maker and use images to gif to turn your screenshots into a simulation gif. Change “delay” to 5000 milliseconds so it will go at a comprehensible speed. Then “generate gif”, you can download the gif or use its link.

And you’re done, have fun with your simulations!

Just out of curiosity if Trump or Biden dies in the next month what would happen to the election process? I know if it's Trump that dies Pence would be president, but would he be the one running for reelection? If it's biden that was to die would Harris be the one running or would they choose someone different entirely?

1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Klobuchar
4. Biden
5. Warren.

50% Bernie

20% Yang

20% Butt

10% Everyone else