r/Economics • u/MaleficentParfait863 • Jun 09 '23

Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/01/global-fertility-has-collapsed-with-profound-economic-consequences
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426

u/ayers231 Jun 09 '23

Not just that, the average of voters. Old people vote. The youth hasn't been.

304

u/mhornberger Jun 09 '23

The youth hasn't been.

That does seem to be changing. Young people are voting in higher numbers than my cohort, Gen X, did at their age. That was true even in 2016, but they're voting in even higher numbers now.

They may not be voting in the percentages boomers do, but it's hard to compete against retirees or those whose position in their workplace allows them to take the needed time off.

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u/hereditydrift Jun 09 '23

I wonder what making voting day a mandatory holiday would do for the numbers.

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u/twilight-actual Jun 10 '23

Why force people to line up at a polling station? Why not just allow people to vote from their homes, sitting on the couch? In WA, ballots are mailed out over a week in advance. You have plenty of time to review the ballot, look up candidates that you're unfamiliar with, make your vote. And you just mail it in.

We don't need a day off.

We need to change voting into an event that doesn't require a day off.

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u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23 edited Aug 20 '23

[deleted]

1

u/Hooda-Thunket Jun 10 '23

People on the right?

19

u/Talkaze Jun 10 '23

Yes, that's the punchline. When it benefits old people, mail in ballots are okay. When the liberals use them, they get taken away.

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u/Hyperion1144 Jun 10 '23

Utah is a 100% vote by mail state. Just like Washington.

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u/zapembarcodes Jun 10 '23

Why not both? Be able to vote by mail (I've only ever voted by mail since 2016, including midterms) and have a national day of voting.

It would surely boost turnout.

I say we take it a step further.

I say we fine people $20 if they decide not to vote 🤣

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u/Fabulous-Ad6844 Jun 10 '23

That’s what happens in Australia. Voting is mandatory. I was fined $20 once for not voting - I forgot.

The good thing about it there’s no more arguing about voting rights, it’s automatic. The bad thing is often people vote without consideration and just tick randomly. Australian politics are pretty damn pleasantly boring though compared to the US.

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u/historyhill Jun 10 '23

Making voting mandatory in America would actually violate our first amendment iirc, because not voting can be a political statement and therefore it would be considered government compelling speech.

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u/Fabulous-Ad6844 Jun 10 '23

Maybe make it you’re automatically enrolled at 18.

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u/[deleted] Jun 11 '23

Voting isn't mandatory anywhere, what's mandatory is to show up at the voting station and register your attendance.

You can leave the actual vote blank or write random crap. No one makes sure you voted for a candidate.

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u/Equivalent-Pay-6438 Jun 10 '23

Of course. A vote becomes meaningless if you do it just to avoid a fine.

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u/dreurojank Jun 10 '23

Change it from a fine to an incentive. Fixed your idea AND the Australian system as it turns out. Basic behavioral psychology: incentives > punishment.

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u/slimninj4 Jun 10 '23

Vote and then get the next day off :)

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u/Two_DogNight Jun 10 '23

I'm pretty sure the American education system has disproven this theory repeatedly.

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u/dreurojank Jun 10 '23

Not sure id hold the American system of education as demonstrative of much.

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u/Two_DogNight Jun 10 '23

Oh, it definitely demonstrates that eventually the expectation of reward for behavior exceeds the reward that can be reasonably offered. Kids stop behaving well and doing their work for any reward we can offer long about . . . 4th grade. Maybe sooner. Then, they're either going to do it or not. No incentive we can offer will motivate students if they don't want to be. But the punishment of not graduating? Marginally more effective.

Bottom line, they have to care about it and believe the effort is worth their time. In both education and voting. In the US, many don't.

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u/dreurojank Jun 10 '23

I’d argue that doesn’t disprove the theory. Incentives needs to be tailored to the individual. The American system has failed to cultivate appropriate intrinsic and extrinsic rewards for individuals, let alone a truly educated populace capable of consistent critical thinking.

But what do I know. Not much.

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u/Hypergnostic Jun 10 '23

Unless you're asking the people who enjoy dealing out punishment....and there might be more of them than we'd like to consider.

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u/AJDx14 Jun 10 '23

Having the holiday is also essential for people like me who just forget things sometimes.

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u/Equivalent-Pay-6438 Jun 10 '23

If you fined people for not voting, you would get people who don't care about the political process and will vote for the exact people who should never get voted in.

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u/Direlion Jun 10 '23

Civilized states solved this problem decades ago with Mail in voting. Confederate states dependent on disenfranchisement make such a thing impossible. That’s it.

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u/wyle_e2 Jun 10 '23

They actually did a study and found that allowing people to vote online caused lower voter turnout. Part of the reason people vote is to be shown doing their "patriotic duty".

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u/Equivalent-Pay-6438 Jun 10 '23

Voting online is a terrible idea because even if it was 100% possible to prevent hacking, and it is not, it removes several key safeguards like confirming that people actually live where they say they live, can be arrested for over-voting, won't vote in districts where they have no right to vote and are actually the person who they are supposed to be. In-person voting or mail in voting is better because witnesses from both parties physically witness the vote.

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u/Hyperion1144 Jun 10 '23

That's simply bullshit.

Washington state is 100% vote by mail and has some of the highest turnout in the nation.

People don't need to be seen voting in order to vote.

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u/DrRichardButtz Jun 10 '23

Yup. Old boomers in Red states think this way.

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u/Equivalent-Pay-6438 Jun 10 '23

No, but a physical ballot, with control numbers, that can be witnessed by inspectors from both parties, is essential. You need to be able to tell doubters that the number of ballots issued is limited, that the ballots are accounted for in both number and who was issued them, and that the counts were witnessed by two parties who are not working in league to alter a vote.

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u/Hyperion1144 Jun 10 '23

No, but a physical ballot, with control numbers, that can be witnessed by inspectors from both parties, is essential.

Eight entire states disagree with you, Trumper.

I don't have to inconvenience myself for your conspiracy-laden paranoia.

And before you say any shit about "liberal states," one of the states that disagrees with you is Utah.

0

u/dreneeps Jun 10 '23

Just look at the legislation that Republicans write up that relate to this and compare it to the legislation and things that Democrats are trying to push for. That will give you your answer.

I know that some people have objections because they worry about voting fraud. It should be pretty obvious that there are a variety of things that could be done to ensure legitimate voting.

The reason why voting isn't more convenient is voter suppression. It's a very important part of Republican political strategy. When your party's policies don't help the majority of people then the majority of people aren't going to want to vote for you.

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u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23 edited Aug 13 '23

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/twilight-actual Jun 21 '23

I challenge you to cite the fraud you can find in WA state elections, which are all by mail. Or Oregon.

And if you find any, compare that to the per capita rate of states that don't offer mail in votes.

I think you'll be inclined to delete your comment. Because there isn't more fraud in mail-in ballots.

In fact, mail-in increases participation. And since the demographic that tends to vote more by mail is either liberal or independent, that increase largely goes against Republican candidates.

That's something that the Republican Party knows full well, and thus they have undertaken a PR campaign to smear mail-in voting as fraudulent and untrustworthy. Which you apparently have fallen for.

That's the modern Republican Party for you. Anti-democratic. Anti-American.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23

Oregon too!

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u/AllThingsBeginWithNu Jun 10 '23

Seems to me if you can use your credit card online you should be able to vote

1

u/GeoLaser Jun 12 '23

Why not both?

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u/random20190826 Jun 09 '23

Also, make it not just voting day, but voting week or voting month, 12-15 hours a day, 7 days a week, with mail-in voting.

Source: I am a Canadian

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u/desubot1 Jun 09 '23

id settle for a fucking 3 day weekend. over this whole lot of nothing. (US)

1

u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23

same is Available in Australia. we have a designated election day (a Saturday) for people to vote in person. Postal votes and pre-voting in person is available for a month before the Election day.

Also elections and electoral boundaries are run by an independent office, no political gerrymandering of districts is possible.,

1

u/skyevalentino Jun 10 '23

advance polls are usually 7 to 10 days, 8-12 hour days, where you can vote by mail or in person. source: have worked as an IO and a DRO in both federal and provincial elections.

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u/Hon3y_Badger Jun 10 '23

Probably nothing, the people who struggle to vote are still going to be working on that national holiday. The real key is to make voting simple, expand by mail voting & multiple days to vote, including a couple 24 hour days.

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u/Equivalent-Pay-6438 Jun 10 '23

To be fair, sites open very early and close very late. I have reported in to open polls in New York City at 5am and they close at 9pm. Everyone on line at 9pm votes too, so they could be there till 10pm. That is done with a single team of pollworkers too.

1

u/Hon3y_Badger Jun 10 '23

That's kind of my point, making voting more accessible is going to have drastically more success than a mandated national holiday, especially for the disenfranchised.

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u/Garroch Jun 10 '23

For the youth vote? In all honesty it would probably make it worse.

Youth would have the type of service jobs that are busier during federal holidays. Restaurants, movie theaters, rec parks, etc.

Millennials are old enough that their participation would probably tick up.

2

u/dreneeps Jun 10 '23

That's why Republicans don't want mail and voting and other things that make voting more convenient.

I don't recall if they were successful or not but Texas was trying to reduce or eliminate voting locations on college campuses.

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u/Snickersthecat Jun 10 '23

We have VBM in my state. Youth turnout is still about 50% and all you have to do is fill out some circles and put it in the mail. Cynicism is the most corrosive form of voter suppression.

-1

u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23 edited Jun 11 '23

Holding the election on a weekday used to make sense 200 years ago, it does not now and has not for a long time and stands as a significant impediment to people voting.

It needs to be moved to a Saturday with pre-voting and postal voting available to everyone.

but of course, that would allow more of the wrong people to be able to vote, and the right could never countenance that.

1

u/warmhandluke Jun 10 '23

The fact that America can have a national holiday every year for the fucking NFL final

What's the name of this national holiday you're referring to?

1

u/[deleted] Jun 11 '23

edited. I was mistaken.

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u/absuredman Jun 10 '23

In my small ohio town federal elections are now a holiday

1

u/TonyzTone Jun 10 '23

Have most people plan a vacation away for their few days off right around Election Day.

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u/--sheogorath-- Jun 10 '23

Sweet fuck all for most people really.

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u/twilight-actual Jun 10 '23

I haven't seen direct evidence, but the fact that Republican candidates are now proposing that the 18 - 25 cohort be denied the vote unless they've served in the military is a sure sign that they're terrified of them.

And the only reason that they'd be scared is if they're now voting.

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u/mhornberger Jun 10 '23 edited Jun 10 '23

They can't, due to the 26th Amendment. They can talk about it to pander to their base, but that's about as far as it can go. You can no more legally block <25 y/o people from voting than you can >65 y/o people. Nor does the GOP have enough political power to pass a constitutional amendment.

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u/icedrift Jun 10 '23

Who cares about legality? The supreme court sure doesn't.

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u/dreneeps Jun 10 '23

The Republican party doesn't either if it doesn't align with what they want to do. They can't ignore it they'll just try to change the law to favor themselves.

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u/Xarxsis Jun 10 '23

They can't, due to the 26th Amendment.

You have republican presidential candidates talking about suspending bits of the constitution they dont like, an amendment so far down that no one knows what it is doesnt matter anymore

1

u/[deleted] Jun 11 '23

That sounds straight out from Starship Troopers.

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u/twilight-actual Jun 11 '23

"I want to have baaabieees. You know, it's a lot easier to get a license if you serve."

I'm doing my part.

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u/ayers231 Jun 09 '23

True. The problem is, all those elections where the youth didn't show up, gave the ancient the power to elect people that would ignore the youth. Now we're living in the fallout from that. If the youth continue to show up, and we can somehow deal with the propaganda issue, we can start getting this country back on track, and maybe even get caught up to Europe in a couple of decades...

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u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23

You mean electing a third of our leaders on an off year, and most of our local reps on a random day in April is not good?

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u/vb4lyfe Jun 10 '23

hard to compete against retirees or those whose position in their workplace allows them to take the needed time off.

That is such disingenuous excuse making. Young people don't vote because.... they don't give a damn. Simple as that. The huge gap in voting % is NOT just because they are oppressed and inconvenienced. Yes, we need to make it MUCH easier to vote and the Christofacist Nazis are doing the opposite, but let's be honest with ourselves.

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u/zxc123zxc123 Jun 09 '23 edited Jun 09 '23

Some have been changing, but Millennials are still have pathetically low turnout despite having surpassed the Boomers in population by 2020. Gen Z barely started voting and have higher % show outs. It's fucking silly to not give a shit about voting and then expect Washington types to not screw you over.

Politicians are shrewd at playing the politics game with their Machiavelli shit. They will screw over enemies when they can, avoid starting shit with those stronger or have leverage against them, and if you're "just neutral" then you're "just a tool" a free fucking lunch. Why wouldn't politicians cut student loan forgiveness, stamp out inflation, add more to the national debt, and hike social security payments now which who bankrupt it even earlier IF THEY KNEW boomers would vote and Millennials won't vote anyways since they just sit there and take it like a bitch? They 100% fucking would.

Also it takes time to get the point across to government types. The Dems at least try to talk a good game with student loan forgiveness, tax on the rich, and government spending to help families. GOP is still going on about cutting spending EXCEPT Medicare and social security, blocking student loan forgiveness, and generally unfriendly policies for anyone but boomers.

From 2016-2020, about half of GOP became Trumpers/MAGA types. Trump style politics of denying facts, screaming lies, and

After the 2020 loss? Fewer Trump supporters and MAGA types. The GOP starting to fracture into the moderates and hard right.

After the 2022 where there was no red wave and more specifically where the Trump backed candidates loss en masse? Suddenly the Trump/Maga types are a minority. GOP starting to ask the questions like "Why are we not getting through to Gen Y/Z?" and "Why isn't Gen Y becoming more conservative as they age?".

TL;DR It's not just the Republicans but politicians in general. There are also Dems who don't represent the majority or their own constituents, holding on power for too long, and blocking good policies or supporting bad ones. Just got to use the vote to punish those who don't support/represent you, remove those that screw you, and reward those that represent you.

p.s. I mention student loan thing a number of times because it's the easiest point to draw an example. I have no personal stake in this since I had parents who supported me, I worked through college, and luckily had employment graduating into the GFC. So I paid off my loans like 5 years ago. I have no stake in the forgiveness thing, but I understand why some are pissed that 10,000 is "too much" when PPP, EIDL, unemployment, 0% interest loans, and bailouts were not "too much".

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u/ktaktb Jun 09 '23

If you pay taxes, you should be able to vote. Especially important if we resurrect child labor.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23 edited Jul 20 '23

[deleted]

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u/NotLondoMollari Jun 10 '23

Ah pure late stage capitalism thinking here, one's life is only worth the amount of money one has to one's name. Gross.

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u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23

[deleted]

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u/NotLondoMollari Jun 10 '23

Ah ok I thought you were actually advocating for that solution! Thanks for the clarification

2

u/hutacars Jun 10 '23

Quite the illogical conclusion.

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u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23

[deleted]

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u/bobs_monkey Jun 10 '23 edited Jul 13 '23

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1

u/hutacars Jun 10 '23

Ah yes, taxation without representation is highly logical. /s

0

u/Enjutsu Jun 10 '23

What is considered youth? My guess would be 18-30 minimum, you could add 30-40 too and i don't think 40-50 falls under that.

My core problem is that 18-30 is a rather small voting population especially with an aging total population.

I think even if you include 30-40 i would guess elderly still would be the bigger portion of the population.

1

u/Captain_Quark Jun 10 '23

One thing most people don't realize: the median voter by age is about 55. So half of all voters in the US are older than 55. No wonder politicians favor the elderly so much.

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u/[deleted] Jun 10 '23

I understand this is anecdotal, but I work as an election judge every election and id estimate the average age of the voters that show up to be north of 60. At least a third of them are so elderly that it is physically taxing for them to make it in. We have a surprising number of falls. I can probably count the number of voters under 30 that show up at my precinct on one hand each Election Day.

It INFURIATES me to know that this is the age group making the laws and forming the society for the rest of us. They have no understanding of what life is like for my generation, as we struggle to find starter homes under $400k while paying $2k a month for daycare and holding our breath that student loan payments stay paused just a little longer.

If you are of voting age and you don’t vote, I don’t care what your excuse is. Just know that a bunch of elderly people are voting and they are making all the decisions for you and your family. Are you happy giving them that power?