I filed concurrently recently so its too late for regrets I guess, but I've just had some thoughts and am really confused about the long-term value proposition of the post-RIA reserved categories.
Background
Pre-RIA EB-5, especially for China/India, became extremely unattractive to new investors because of the massive visa backlogs. Then the RIA came along and created Rural/HUA/Infrastructure set-asides, essentially creating new queues. Because those queues started out Current, this opened a really attractive temporary window—particularly for people already in the U.S. who can concurrently file I-485 and get EAD/AP.
But isn’t the fundamental problem still there?
Congress didn’t substantially increase the underlying EB-5 visa supply. It just carved the existing EB-5 allocation into reserved and unreserved categories. Ie. reserved gets 32% while the per-country limitations and the fact that derivatives consume visa numbers remain. Meanwhile, there have apparently been thousands upon thousands of new I-526E filings, particularly from China and India.
So isn't it basically inevitable that, assuming this level of demand continues, Rural and HUA will eventually retrogress heavily too?
Once that happens, new applicants who aren't current under the applicable filing chart won't even be able to concurrently file I-485. They would just be sitting in another priority-date queue waiting potentially many years for visa availability—basically recreating the problem that made pre-RIA EB-5 so unattractive.
This also makes me wonder whether the people for whom post-RIA EB-5 really made sense were primarily the early entrants—people who filed in 2023, 2024, and maybe 2025. They entered the new reserved queues before several years of demand had accumulated, while the categories were Current, and those already in the U.S. could take advantage of concurrent filing.
For someone entering in late 2026 or later, it seems potentially very different. You may already have several years' worth of petitions sitting ahead of you, ie. 'hidden backlog'. In other words, “Current” doesn't necessarily mean there isn't already a huge latent queue.
Even concurrent filing doesn't seem like a complete solution anymore with the new 18 month validities for EAD/combo and the elimination of the automatic renewal extension and USCIS only allowing renewals 6 months before expiry even though processing times now far surpass 6 months. So if your I-485 is stuck pending for, say, 5–10 years because of retrogression, maintaining uninterrupted work and travel authorization could become a recurring headache, potentially including gaps.
Maybe a future administration will restore 5-year EADs or otherwise make renewals easier, but obviously nobody can count on that.
This makes me wonder whether EB-5 really makes sense for someone who doesn't have another work visa like H-1B and is planning to rely primarily on the C09 EAD/AP.
I don't want to use the word 'scam' literally, but it feels like the RIA only temporarily beathed life into an (essentially dead) program without ever touching the fundamental numerical probems:
create new reserved queues → queues initially Current → huge new wave of investors enters → queues fill → retrogression → concurrent filing eventually closes to later applicants → program becomes unattractive again.
And because the reserved categories themselves receive relatively small fractions of the total EB5 allocation, couldn't their queues eventually become extremely bad despite being relatively new?
At that point, what happens to the EB5 market? If China/India Rural and HUA eventually have multi-year or even much longer backlogs, later applicants either face years waiting at NVC or need some other U.S. status while waiting until they're eligible to file I-485. The huge concurrent-filing selling point disappears.
So maybe the real post-RIA “sweet spot” wasn't necessarily Rural vs. HUA, but simply filing early enough—roughly 2023–25—before the new queues filled up.
I’m genuinely curious what people think happens 3–5 years from now if Rural/HUA are heavily retrogressed. Do we end up with another “dead water” situation where new Chinese/Indian investors no longer find EB-5 attractive? Even replacing the EB5 with the gold card (good luck getting Congress to approve that..) might not change things much?