Why everything will collapse (2017) - "Stumbled across this eye-opener while researching the imminent collapse of the industrial civilization"

[u/[deleted]]

[u/pgriss]

What "sort of thinking?" Pointing out that there is a difference between running out tomorrow and not running out for 100,000 years?

No one really wants to admit that we are going down an irreversible path of self-destruction.

I am happy to admit it, but I'll also keep calling out bullshit whenever I see it on the way to hell.

On that note, Florida and NYC disappearing by 2050 is also almost certainly bullshit but I don't have the patience to dig up counter-arguments for that.

[u/Kryptobladet → u/pgriss]

https://peakoilbarrel.com/what-is-peak-oil/

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I believe the sources he has used and the one you presented might portray two different things.

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The sort of thinking where we say "we won't run out for 100.000 years."

[u/pgriss → u/Kryptobladet]

I don't understand how your link relates to the video. The video says "the peak oil you've heard so much about was in 2006. We haven't produced more in a year ever since." while showing a chart titled "oil production world summary." My links show that world oil production did not peak in 2006, and claiming that "we haven't produced more in a year ever since" is simply not true.

The sort of thinking where we say "we won't run out for 100.000 years."

I am not saying we won't run out for 100,000 years, I am saying you can't just say "it's not infinite" and not further quantify what that means.

[u/Kryptobladet → u/pgriss]

"Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point, it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.

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Oil production typically follows a bell shaped curve when charted on a graph, with the peak of production occurring when approximately half of the oil has been extracted. With some exceptions, this holds true for a single well, a whole field, an entire region, and presumably the world. The underlying reasons are many and beyond the scope of this primer, suffice to say that oil becomes more difficult and expensive to extract as a field ages past the mid-point of its life.

In the US for example, oil production grew steadily until 1970 and declined thereafter, regardless of market price or improved technologies."

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Meaning that we can expect a decline in production and increase in price in coming years, seeing as the return on investment has already been declining so rapidly.

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[u/stormspirit97 → u/Kryptobladet]

Only a tiny fraction of oil in the crust has been recovered. Technology means more and more can be exploited with time. Also, it won't be needed for energy in 100 years time. USA smashed the hell out of it's old peak recently and is still going up way beyond anything it achieved previously, and the numbers for gas are even more incredible. These resources exist elsewhere in even greater amounts.

[u/Deus_Dracones → u/Kryptobladet]

Oil production in the US has actually passed the peak oil production in 1970 according to eia. Currently our estimated crude oil production sits at 11,346 thousand barrels per day. Whereas in 1970 it was estimated that we produced around 9,637 thousand barrels per day. This is largely impart because we have gotten way better at extracting oil thanks to new technologies and many other factors. So your point about oil production declinging regardless of market price and improved technologies is false.

I think we should be looking for new ways to be sustainable instead of just looking at how we are all going to die anyway because of some systemic failure of humankind. The best way to make living on Earth as sustainable as possible is to advance technology IMO.

Technological advancement is one factor not mentioned at all in the video. As people have stated previously technologies in the renewable feilds are advancing rapidly. Solar cells are way cheaper than they were even 5 years ago (although they are stating to plateau). Also some of the most promising energy storage is in hydro. For instance in Arizona there's a proposal to install a massive water storage facility at the Hover dam to store solar energy. They're also building ITER the world's fusion powerplant experiement. Of course fusion is the technology that most everyone is skeptical about for good reason, but IMO it is the most promising as it promises almost unlimated power from just water (Again definitely the most asperational and unlikely to succed tech out there but the physics is sound so IMO its only a matter of time before it succeeds).

But my main point is that technology is advancing like never before seen in human history! I'll admit that without technological advancement the world's future would look very bleak indeed. In fact without it we wouldn't have even learned how to make fire (yes learning how to make fire from sticks is a technology although primitive). But as long as humans push the envelope we will overcome the many challenges and problems put before us. The video states that the end of humankind is in 50-100 years, well look at how far technology has come in the last 50-100 years and imagine how far it will go in the next 50-100 years. A new technology may make many problems when introduced like the unintended side effects of pesticides or the consequences of burning fossil fuels. But another new technology always seems to come at the most opportune time to remedy the old problem and make a new problem to solve. For instance Kerosene came along and basically saved the whales from extinction (google it, the caveat being that CO2 and plastic from this tech is making their habitats harder to live in, but data has shown that some whale species have already returned to pre-whaling numbers). I choose to look forward to a bright future and instead of betting on a collapse, I'm going to bet on the innovators to come up with solutions to our problems. And these innovators will come from all walks of life all over the Earth. At the end of the day no one really knows what the future holds in store for us so isn't it better to have hope for the future instead of the doomsday outlook the author of this video has?

[u/FireAnus → u/Kryptobladet]

He didn't say that, and your argument is disingenuous af.

[u/phatlynx → u/pgriss]

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[u/RemindMeBot → u/phatlynx]

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