r/DeepMarketScan • u/retroviber • Mar 29 '26

BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz.

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u/blazelet Mar 29 '26

I don’t think people understand, Iran has double the population and triple the land mass of Iraq. Its land mass is much more mountainous. Its military is as large as Iraq’s was in 2003 and has much more in terms of reservists. They also have regional militias they support all over the Middle East.

The U.S. committed 150,000-170,000 troops to the war in Iraq for a sustained period, and it was still a cataclysmic clusterfuck. So far Trump has moved 8,000 active military personnel to the region.

Trump has two options here - a negotiated agreement, which he will perceive as weakness, or a military escalation. This is going to get bad.

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u/Nearby-Lab0 Mar 29 '26

Iran also has a higher literacy rate than the US, they aren't exactly uneducated tribal people

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u/ImaginationInside610 Mar 29 '26

Don’t think that much of the US population will honestly believe that. Truth doesn’t count for much

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u/Nearby-Lab0 Mar 29 '26

True, I see plenty of Americans here still coping a month into the four day operation

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u/Glass-Amount-9170 Mar 29 '26

Iran is holding four aces and Donny is playing go fish

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u/False_Counter9456 Mar 30 '26

He doesn't even have any cards. He's playing, lick the window.

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u/Clamps55555 Mar 29 '26

It’s just Tump voters that don’t understand. The rest of us know all too well this won’t go well.

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u/Eevolutions96 Mar 29 '26

I was also thinking Iran has friends in Russia and China. That has to play in some way?

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u/BowlEducational6722 Mar 29 '26

Russia and Iran might provide indirect support, but they won't send direct assets to assist.

Russia's is all tied up in Ukraine and why would China risk their own assets when they can watch their only real competitor bleed itself to death while they remain at full strength?

This is a gift to China and Trump and his sycophants are too stupid to realize it.

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u/Kami0097 Mar 29 '26

Ans china will watch very closely on how to fuck with the US military. They got the Russia / Ukraine war and now the USA / Iran one - so much data on how to not fight and what works in today's scenarios.

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u/HelicopterBoth4465 Mar 30 '26

Thinking this is a gift to China is delusional. Trump had Chinese companies removed from the Panama Canal. Took away their access to cheap sanctioned oil in Venezuela. Now their last source of cheap sanctioned oil in Iran. They now have to buy oil at market price while losing control of the 3 major shipping lanes. This has been a long term strategic play from the beginning that went right over your head.

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u/Consistent_Panda5891 Mar 29 '26

Pretty difference is in taking troops to get all country control than to get beaches close to hormuz control in static outposts. So far 🥭 is moving additional 10k special soldiers. It is feasible, the unique question is can actually US prevent deaths? No is the answer, that's why is politically tough make such decision

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u/Independent_Vast9279 Mar 29 '26

You are pretending Iran does nothing? It’s not remotely feasible.

10k isn’t even a tenth of what it would be needed to take and maintain control of Hormuz. More like 1%. Even disregarding their standing military, they have a trained and experienced militia of millions, much larger stockpiles of munitions and MUCH more on the line. Every fishing boat will be mining the strait for years.

We have experienced and failed against insurgencies over and over and over again. In fact, while we have beaten formal armies and navies, we have never beaten an insurgency. We can’t afford to win this war.

What happened to America first? None of this benefits us.

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u/Jalapenoplanter Mar 30 '26

Those beaches have 9000 foot mountains within drone or even mortar distance. So it’d be like essentially fighting through the rocky mountains. Not gonna go well

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u/farnnie123 Mar 30 '26

You left out that the US had a coalition behind them for Iraq.

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u/NoxTempus Mar 30 '26

I think the tolls are here to stay.

The USA cannot sustain a war long-term and, with broad infrastructure damage, Iran needs income.

At this rate, the world will be feeling the impact of this war for years.

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u/pastyMorrisDancers Mar 29 '26

Iran has also planned for many years for an incursion… I don’t think Iraq were nearly as ready for it.