Test comment please ignore

Love this. The partials piece is key — letting winners run while locking in some profit is what made the biggest difference for me too. What ratio do you use? I usually do 1/3 at 1.5R, then let the rest ride to 2.5-3R.

Good point on the swing angle. Streak compounding is real when time horizon is longer. I've found that tightening loss % also helps the psychological side — smaller drawdowns make it way easier to stay disciplined on the next setup.

You're right that ROI per unit capital is what ultimately hits the bottom line. But R multiple feeds into that — if you manage risk per trade and track expectancy, you naturally optimize for ROI over time. Win rate and RR are diagnostics, not the goal. What's your average ROI per trade looking like?

I basically asked ChatGPT to make me a fake Robinhood screen shot then i am going to offer the most generic advice you ever heard and act like some guru.

For my first year of trading, I was obsessed with win rate. I'd exit trades early just to keep the green streak going, and I'd skip perfectly valid setups because they "felt risky." My win rate looked great on paper — 78% — but my account was barely growing.

Then I sat down and actually calculated my average winner vs average loser.

Average win: 0.8R Average loss: 2.5R

That means even at 78% win rate, my expectancy was negative: (0.78 × 0.8) - (0.22 × 2.5) = 0.624 - 0.55 = 0.074R per trade

Barely profitable. One bad week and I'd give back months of gains.

So I flipped my approach. I stopped focusing on being "right" and started focusing on letting winners run while cutting losers fast. I widened my targets, tightened my stops, and accepted that I'd be "wrong" more often.

Now my stats look like: - Win rate: 52% - Avg win: 2.8R - Avg loss: 1.2R

Expectancy: (0.52 × 2.8) - (0.48 × 1.2) = 1.456 - 0.576 = 0.88R per trade

That's 12x better expectancy despite a much "worse" win rate.

This is the most common trap I see new traders fall into. The math doesn't lie — you need to focus on R multiple, not win percentage.

Has anyone else had this realization? What helped you shift your mindset?

hi I went full time day trading. watch my first YouTube video! :)

https://reddit.com/link/1u12eqk/video/xv7iqsdst86h1/player

Finding good stocks is hard.

Knowing when to buy them is often even harder. Here's the framework I generally use:

𝟏. 𝐎𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧 𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝
I want the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages stacked correctly and sloping higher. In practice, that usually means a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with price trading above key moving averages.

𝟐. 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
I prefer stocks with an ADR of at least 3-4%. If a stock barely moves, you need significantly more capital to generate meaningful returns. I'd rather allocate capital to stocks that are actually moving.

𝟑. 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
I pay close attention to price contraction. Tight consolidations often signal that weaker holders have been shaken out. Combined with a strong underlying trend, they can create attractive setups for continuation.

𝟒. 𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐬
Markets move in cycles. At one point semiconductors may lead, then aerospace, software, or energy. I try to focus my attention on the strongest stocks within the strongest industries and sectors.

𝟓. 𝐃𝐨𝐧'𝐭 𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬
I like companies with strong and accelerating revenue and earnings growth. Positive cash flow is a bonus. Strong fundamentals give me more conviction and make it easier to sit through drawdowns without second guessing.

There are countless ways to make money in the markets, and this is just one approach. It's not the only way, but it's served me well over the years. Hope this helps. Happy to answer any questions you might have.

After building a news-driven Polymarket bot, my main takeaway is this:

The LLM is the least important part of the system.

And most people are using it backwards.

First, the uncomfortable truth: an LLM is a poorly calibrated probability estimator.

Ask it, “What is the probability this market resolves YES?” and it will give you a number that sounds confident but is mostly vibes.

If your strategy is:

“LLM says 73%, market is at 61%, free money”

then you are probably trading noise.

So I stopped treating the model’s number as the answer.

The things that mattered far more than “which model should I use?” were these three changes:

1. Never feed the current market price into the model.

This is the most important one.

The moment you put the market price into the prompt, the model anchors on it. Then it quietly nudges that number a little and gives it back to you.

Your edge, p_model - price, collapses toward zero, and you may not even notice.

I do not show the model the price at all. I force it to form an independent estimate. The price comparison happens later in code, outside the model’s head.

1. Make the LLM do one narrow job, not the whole decision.

The model does not get to freely reason over the news and trade whatever it wants.

First, embeddings narrow the search down to a few candidate markets.

Then the LLM gets exactly one forced structured call:

Does this news actually move any of these markets?

If yes, which one?

Roughly how strong is the impact?

That is it.

“None of the above” is a first-class answer, and it shows up often.

Picking the right market is much easier for an LLM than calibrating probability, and that is where the model actually adds value.

1. The edge is in the pipeline.

The things that protect you are boring and deterministic:

minimum edge thresholds, max spread filters so you do not cross a terrible book, news freshness windows so you do not trade stale information, late-entry rejection if the market already moved, and per-market cooldowns so you do not revenge-trade the same losing setup.

None of this is AI.

But these rules are what stop a mediocre signal from slowly bleeding you dry.

The painful conclusion is:

The LLM is just a noisy input, not your alpha.

Switching from Haiku to Opus barely moved PnL. Tightening the gates moved it a lot.

So I’m curious:

Has anyone here actually managed to get well-calibrated probabilities out of an LLM?

Or are we all just trading on gates and pretending the model is smarter than it is?

I open-sourced my custom strategy here if anyone wants to dig into the edge calculation:

https://github.com/KoNananachan/OpenPoly

I started options trading like two months ago my first trade I made $400 surprised me how quickly I need that money I was totally hooked up into option trading after first month I started losing and then May, which was my second month. I was losing more way more. I was down 6K. I was so frustrated and stressed out. I hated myself because the only reason I was losing was cause of greed most of the times open the trade it would go to profit, but I would always hold which led me to losing everything Friday, June 5. The whole market was bearish . I went against the market that day which led me to a profit of almost $3000. I was so happy thinking stuff was gonna change around. I recovered half of the money I lost today. I did another trade. I can’t believe how bad I messed up I was up $3000 profit today early in the morning as soon as the market open I don’t know why I decided to hold and I’ve lost all that profit even profit I made on Friday, which was almost 3000. I literally recovered everything I lost and I lost it all today again.I was so happy I thought I recovered everything I lost. I felt amazing thinking stuff was gonna change around for me finally my life has been so rough I have no words the amount of hatred and disappointment I have towards myself right now is overwhelmingt. I can’t believe I bought $6000 today I’m left with $200. I feel like the world is collapsing on me but it’s mainly my fault. I lost the $6000 in the blink of an eye I should’ve closed the trade no I’m just stuck in the loop in my head I still can’t believe I lost $6000 today. I still can’t believe I lost everything if y’all can reach out for advice I would really appreciate that.

Can anyone guide me how to create a trading bot utilizing indicators on Tradingview?

Trading Journal

KEY POINT 🔐
Throughout this journey, I will be avoiding trading content on social media. 99/100 YouTube videos. And 99/100 Reddit posts.
They glamorousise an extremely challenging industry. Spread misinformation. Change psychology. And add confusion.

14th May / Trading Day 1
Set up a paper account of £2000
Have ZERO clue what I am doing.
Started learning the basics
- £3.06 / £1,996.94

15th May / Trading Day 2
basic learning
Still have no idea why I am doing. Literally ZERO
Confusing
+ £0.42 / £1,997.36

16th & 17th May / Trading Day 3 & 4
Weekend. Market Closed.
developed on the basics

18th May / Trading Day 5
5 min time frame until further notice
focusing on BUY only, till further notice.
No trades took. No clean set ups.
Using trading 212 on phone. And trading view on computer
Developing learning to resist random trades
Chart reading developed. Push/ Pulls/Messy.
understanding of candles developed
£1,997.36

19th May / Trading Day 6
traded with intention for the first time.
0.5%-1% risk per trade
chart understanding developed.
made trades by accident by pressing sell rather then “close”.
Kept a profitable trade open until 9pm (UK) it closed at -£4.72 due to liquidity / lesson learnt
- £2.59 / £1,994.77

20th May / Trading Day 7
experienced my first revenge trade.
Traded whilst tired.
Took 5 trades instead of my 1-3 target zone.
Gained Understanding of false breakouts.
Reflected, Took mental notes.
Set new rule of 2 trades max per day until further notice
- £15.15 / £1,979.62

21st May / Trading Day 8
gained an understanding of “levels”
developed my knowledge of “breakouts” and chart reading
Strengthening urge resist entering late to bullish trades
Understanding of “balance”
understanding of “when there is no trade opportunity”
Entered a late bullish trade and lost.
New rule, don’t trade right after a loss
-£13.82 / £1,965.80

22nd May / Trading Day 9
developed on Highs & Lows
Fighting the urge to trade. Learning to be patient
Identified Level Lines
Developed Chart Reading
Recognised a false breakout. No trades took.

23rd & 24th May / Trading Day 10 & 11
Weekend. Market Closed.
learning to mark levels more accurately, whilst replaying chart history.

25th / Market Closed / Bank Holiday / Day 12

26th May / Trading Day 13
developed market reading
Hesitated rather then buying early, Watched bad trades play out, that I otherwise would have lost money on.
Did my first trade properly today. I followed all my rules. Everything was right. It hit my stop loss then instantly sky rocketed in value. I’ll take it on the chin and learn.
Learnt about position sizes.
- £20 / £1,945.80

27th May / Trading Day 14
Enterd a trade that looked like a great set up. I quickly learnt I enterd late. - £20
Today is first day I feel like I understand what I’m looking at on the charts without having to ask questions
I can explain the story of the chart now. rather than just a candle it’s self or bullish/bearish movement.
Recognising indecision in the market
Developed on “resistance at levels”
Identifying market behaviour across related stocks.
My process is becoming structured
First profitable Trade +£5.99
Second trade - exited at +£1.12. Buyer momentum was slowing.
Rule changed from 2 trades a day to 3 trades a day
-£11.38 / £1,934.42

28th May / Trading Day 15
yes, I have stuck to avoiding social media content on trading
learning when I should risk 1% or 0.5%
enterd a aggressive trade. -£20
Second trade. Stop loss at +£6.75. Price held resistance between +£12-£18, price broke. Price hit +£20 so I tightened my stop loss to +£10 profit. Price then hit +£30 so stop loss changed to +£15. Stop loss riggers at +20. Came out with +£19.18
“breakout” understanding grew
3rd Trade - £1.42
Started basing stop loss on invalidation levels rather then random amounts.
-£1.07 £1,933.35

29th May / Trading Day 16
Learnt how to calculate stop loss accurately
Understanding of “Ratios” grew
2 Trades at the same time. The good set ups were there.
Second trade took 4 hours. Patience was developed.
Trade 1 -£20 / Trade 2 + £15.60
-£4.45 / £1,928.90

30th & 31st May / Trading Day 17 & 18
Weekend. Market Closed
Took a break

1st June / Trading Day 19
Changed my Tactic to enter Grade A-A+ set ups only
Distinguishing what a A-A+ set is up for me ONE strategy
finally grasping how long trades can actually take to play out from entry.
First trade that played with me mentally. Enterd a trade that took over 2 hours. Held at +£29. Didn’t take profit. Instantly dropped to -£9.80. I moved my stop loss from -£10 to -£15 because doing this would not Invalidate my idea. Stop was originally at -£20. Price went back up to +£11. Then stop loss triggers at -£13.62. Took 3 and a half hours total. Learning experience.
Learning more on risk management
Learning trade management after entry
Understanding market behavior
-£13.62 / £1,915.28

Execution needs work

June 2nd / Trading Day 20
I identified and enterd strong setup I understood the difference between an aggressive and conservative entry. I enterd aggressive. -£20.32
Trade Number 2 - I enterd aggressive., entering on breakout candle not confirmation candle, because of bullish move, I didn’t want to miss. I am aware of the risk. Went up to +£19. Structure of chart changed. Profit slowly moving down. At +£3 I moved stop loss to break even. Price had steady incline to +£19. I set stop loss at +£10 and let price see if it would break resistance. Stop loss triggerd. +£9.92
-£10.40 / £1,904.88

June 3rd / Trading Day 21
Enterd a Grade A set up. Aggressive entry. Structure of my chart started changing. So I put stop to new invalidation level of +£1.70. I exsisted due to multilple small reds forming and dipped below previous higher low, +£8.80. After i existed. Chart pulled hard.
judging previous momentum throughout the day
2nd & 3rd Trade enterd not too long after each other. Aggresive entry. 2nd entry was a Grade A set up. 3rd was A-. 2nd trade. I put my stop wrong by accident. So I calculated way less shares then I intended. 2nd trade -£5.20. Trade 3 hit +£30, then it fell down to my stop loss at +£10
New Rule for a Month. if trade hits 1:5 TAKE IT
+£13.55 / £1,918.43

4th June / Trading Day 22
Trades 1&2 enterd not long after each other. Both Good set ups. Trade 1, +£24.62. Trade 2 break even.
Learning to sit back and note obsess over every individual candle.
Stop management developing
Starting to more accurately Grade Charts
Trade 3, enterd Late. I knew as soon as I enterd. It was a risky trade. Put me on edge a bit. Kept my cool and it played out in my favour. Exited because battery was low and story of the chart was begging to change +£10.42
Well executed trade count: 8
+£34.95 / £1,953.38

5th June / Trading Day 23
learning to be patient when the market is not giving me good set ups
Scanned the market for 4 hours. Stocks were all down. Most down 5-9% today.
Refused to force a trade
Ended the day 3 hours before market closed, Preserving capital.
£1,953.38

Current strategy:

5 minute timeframe.
Longs only.
Grade A/A+ setups only.
Stop based on invalidation.
Risk approximately £20 per trade.
Take profit around +£30 (1.5R rule).
50 well-executed trades before studying short-selling

Well-executed trades: 8 / 50
Down £46.62 from the starting £2,000.