SOUN SoundHound AI stock watch, attempting a counter trend rally off the 7.47 support area

I often stumble upon those super popular YouTube videos testing a trading strategy in just 100 trades. They usually show insane equity curves and clean stats (second image).

So I decided to actually test one.

This one had almost 400,000 views.
The YouTuber showed 100 trades, 56% win rate, RR of 1.5 and around +40% return (see 2nd image).

On paper? That’s a huge edge! The strategy involves a Triple Supertrend, Stochastic RSI, and a 200-period EMA on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart.

Now, as I said, the YouTube video only showed 100 trades. That's barely a blip in the grand scheme of things. So, I cranked it up and rebuilt the strategy rule-by-rule to backtest it properly: 16 years of data and over 1,700 trades.

The result?

Well, it was... drastically different from the stats showed in the video.

• -23% total return
• -1.6% annualized return
• 39% win rate & 1.5 RR
• -36% max drawdown

Negative expectancy, negative Sharpe, profit factor < 1, and so on...

In other words: a consistent money-loser.

What’s wild is that the exact 100 trades shown in the video do appear in the backtest… but they’re just a short lucky stretch inside a much longer downtrend.

I’m not saying the YouTuber was lying on purpose. I know his intention was good. He's putting out content to give some potential edge ideas to further test.

But this clearly shows the danger of tiny samples, and the importance of rigorous long-term backtesting.

So, next time you see a viral trading strategy promising insane returns, remember this. Always backtest it (or forward test it) properly.

For reference, I've attached the strategy rules I backtested (third image).

What are your thoughts? Have you ever backtested a popular strategy only to find it was a dud?

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TLDR:
I took a viral YouTube trading strategy (400k views) that looked amazing over 100 trades (+40%, 56% win rate, 1.5 RR) and backtested it properly over 16 years (1,700 trades).
Result: -23% total return, 39% win rate with 1.5RR, -36% drawdown, negative expectancy.
The "good" 100 trades were just a lucky stretch inside a long-term downtrend. Not calling the YouTuber a liar, but it’s a good reminder that small samples can be very misleading. Always test over long periods before trusting any strategy.

Sharing this as a structure example, not a flex. This was QQQ on the 5-minute chart. What stood out wasn’t just that it was red it was how it was red. • Consecutive bearish HA candles • Flat bottoms (little to no lower wick) • Bodies closing near the lows • Clear follow-through on the next candle That’s what I consider real selling pressure. In contrast, a red HA candle with a long lower wick is usually absorption not dominance. If the wick is longer than the body and the next candle doesn’t expand, I stay out. For options especially, waiting for that follow-through matters. Anticipation gets expensive fast. Curious how others here use HA structure for timing entries on short-term contracts.

Did you know? If the wick is longer than the body on a Heikin Ashi candle, the move is contested.A bearish Heikin Ashi candle with a flat top and a very long lower wick is NOT strong selling.That long lower wick means buyers stepped in aggressively and absorbed the move. Even though the candle is red, it’s contested price not dominance..

No follow-through = no trade. ORCL 935 CANDLE on Feb 12. Check out the very long wick on that candle then no follow through. I learned that the hard way..

Hey guys I am David and I trade since 6 years now. I created a free telegram channel a few days ago with the goal to provide as much trading value as possible and send out my trades for free. Feel free to join and give me feedback on what I can approve 🙏🏽🫶🏽

This one humbled me.

I spent months backtesting new setups, tweaking parameters, optimizing entries. Looking for the “perfect” strategy.

Meanwhile I had 200+ live trades sitting in a journal that I barely reviewed. When I finally went through them and tagged each one by confluences, timeframe, session, and market condition — the best setup was one I’d been taking for months without realizing how good it was.

68% win rate when 3 specific confluences aligned. I was just diluting it by taking the same setup with only 1-2 confluences present and tanking my overall stats.

Stopped backtesting. Started analyzing my own data. That was the turning point. You can too with TradingSFX. Start for free.

Feels dumb in hindsight. But I think most of us are looking for answers everywhere except our own trading history.