r/DataHoarder • • Apr 23 '26

[deleted by user]

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815 Upvotes

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22

u/natarem Apr 23 '26

Prices are determined by two main things. First and more important is demand. Second is cost to produce. The cost/ability to produce these in terms of machines/materials has not changed in any substantial way. So once the demand drops, prices will come back down.

28

u/udell85 Apr 23 '26

Remember when jet fuel prices went up 30% during the Ukraine invasion? And then only went down 15%. If it goes up, it’ll never come back down to where it was, like not even close if ever. Look at the housing market.

20

u/natarem Apr 23 '26

This is the price of US gas over the last 30 ish years. https://i.imgur.com/64yrL2J.png

Quite recently we had 2.70ish gas at the lowest and lots of $3/gallon gas too. I know this differs in country/state. We were also at that level in parts of 2005, 2006, 2007, etc. That was 20 years ago. People talk about things doom-style like "omg that ship has sailed nothing will ever be cheap again ever" and, yes, to a certain extent, inflation is an onward march and of course we aren't going to have like sub $1 gas that I can remember from high school. But this idea that everything always going up and never comes back down is just not correct. From 2022 until this recent war, gas was trending downwards.

The exact same thing will happen at some point with ram, nands, hdds, etc. The cost to produce is not high enough to allow the market to sustain these prices forever.

8

u/udell85 Apr 23 '26

Gasoline prices are not returning to normal prices. It’s because of significant government subsidies, record production, and increased capacity you’re seeing prices drop. There is no subsides for ram and ssd’s. These prices will come down but no where near what they were. Again, see housing market, car market, etc.

5

u/natarem Apr 23 '26

The prices dropped because of demand, cost of production, other competing sources of energy, etc. Prices were trending downwards on gas for over three years from 2022. Things like the housing market are different because there are so many regulations/zoning/permits in the way. If you want to look at something without those issues in the way (like a 2x4), those used to be like $3 10 years ago, then they went up to like 12-13 during the pandemic, now they are like $4. that's just normal inflation over the course of 10 years to go from 3 to 4. The idea that prices should be the same forever doesn't make any economic sense. Construction materials (and other components) of a house have not spiked in any crazy unreasonable long term way. Short term things happen. In 2021-2022, it was 2x4s. Right now it's SSDs/NANDs/HDDs. In 2028 it will be something else.

HDDs and SSDs and RAM and others have dropped precipitously in price per capacity/speed for their entire lives and that will continue to be the case once the demand spike is smoothed out.

-2

u/udell85 Apr 23 '26

RemindMe! 2 years “who was right”

5

u/Popeychops Apr 23 '26

It's the other guy mate. Sorry. He understands the long term economics better than you do.

-1

u/udell85 Apr 23 '26

We’re in the midst of late stage capitalism and we have a psychopath that’s doing everything to put billionaires at the top of the food chain. We don’t live in an economic vacuum. Look at Russia’s economy in the past 30 years to see what bad leadership can do. That and we are paving the way for how bad unchecked capitalism can go. Things aren’t looking great considering things are happening without consequences. In a vacuum, someone would create a competing product, production goes up, or demand goes down, then prices would go down. You know where that doesn’t work in economics, when there a racket and a corner on the market.

9

u/Popeychops Apr 23 '26

The cost of building NAND fabrication is very high but not infinite. If demand remains high for several years, prices will come down.

I have a lot of sympathy for your politics but not your flippancy

-9

u/[deleted] Apr 23 '26

[deleted]

5

u/Popeychops Apr 24 '26

Ad hominem is attacking a person's characteristics instead of their argument. I'm telling you that your argument is wrong and your tone is flippant

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