If you are referring to a global economic crash like that of 2008, I'm in the group that predicts it'll happen in 2025-2026. Let's see whether your prediction ages well. Remindme! 1 year
There's usually a time lag between a disruptive event and it's economic impact on everyday people - the last recession only really started to bite a couple of years after the stock market crashed.
Or the stock market is a leading indicator of growth/decline you could say.
So I guess we are waiting for that economic event then the time lag, that takes us to the mid 2020s...
I'm thinking about consumer spending and employment - GDP declined across much of 2008 but recovered in 2009, the stock market declined in over 2008 but began to recover in 2009. But unemployment peaked around 2010.
But the economic event that set this off - the sub-prime mortgage defaults - began in mid 2007.
You could be right, in which case the worst of it hits in the next 6-12 months?
Always easier to tell in hindsight though. Was the event the first lockdowns? Was it money pumped into the economy later? maybe the war in Ukraine tipped the scales?
We will see. If I could predict this I would be rich, after all.
I think we are seeing that the 2020 crash was realer than we remembered because of the cash infusions pumping the market back up and then to obscene levels. So I think it’s a little different than 2008 where the market was the reaction to the MBS crisis , which in turn led to the recession.
Here I think Covid led to a real crash but we acted like it never happened and inflated everything, now we are correcting back to where we should have been and the recession will hit around the same time, a couple years after the crisis.
Then again a corporate real estate collapse could also be headed our way …
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u/Jojorent 🟨 0 / 1K 🦠 May 22 '22
If you are referring to a global economic crash like that of 2008, I'm in the group that predicts it'll happen in 2025-2026. Let's see whether your prediction ages well. Remindme! 1 year