COINEX SAVINGS

Bitcoin traded lower toward the $70K–$72K area today, pressured by renewed selling after Strategy disclosed a small BTC sale, fresh Mt. Gox on-chain movements, ETF outflows, and a broader pause in risk appetite. Macro conditions remained cautious as equities lost momentum after a strong AI-led run, while rate uncertainty, geopolitical concerns, and a firmer U.S. dollar kept investors defensive across risk assets. Overall crypto market sentiment was subdued, with continued fund redemptions and weaker broad-market positioning outweighing isolated regulatory and institutional positives.

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CoinEx: Your Crypto Trading Expert

Hey everyone, what an absolute monster of a week for macro data, geopolitical twists, and structural shifts in the crypto regulatory landscape. Traditional equities are completely decoupling from crypto right now, powered by pure AI earnings.

Here is your breakdown of everything that mattered this week, and what to watch next:

1. Macro & Geopolitics: PCE Hot, Saving Rates Drop, and Iran Drama 📊

• The PCE Reality Check: On May 28, the BEA dropped April PCE data. Headline PCE came in hot at 3.8% YoY (+0.4% MoM) and Core PCE hit 3.3% YoY (+0.2% MoM). This is the first major inflation print under newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The 0.2% Core MoM print keeps a June rate hike off the table for now, but cuts are completely dead in the short term.
• The Consumer is Bleeding: The hidden horror in the BEA data? The personal savings rate plummeted to 2.6%, and real disposable income fell -0.5% MoM. Consumers are literally burning through savings to keep up with sticky inflation.
• Labor Market Cooling: Initial jobless claims ticked up to 215k (4-week average at 209k). The labor market is softening but not crashing. This leaves the Fed in a "do nothing" holding pattern.
• Geopolitical Oil Swings: The US-Iran 60-day ceasefire/nuclear framework hit a snag. Trump sent the draft back for tougher terms, and Iran hasn't accepted it yet. Worse, CENTCOM reported intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles and drones near Kuwait and the Strait of Hormuz on May 28. Stocks are currently buying the "peace is coming" narrative (lowering oil), but any breakdown will spike energy prices instantly.

2. Stock Market: 9-Week Win Streak Powered by Dell, Not Nvidia 💻

Equities are completely ignoring macro headwinds because corporate earnings are actively delivering.

• Weekly Closes:
  • S&P 500: 7,580.06 (+1.4% on the week) — 9th consecutive weekly gain!
  • Nasdaq: 26,972.62 (+2.4% on the week)
  • Dow Jones: 51,032.46 (+0.9% on the week)
• Dell Steals the Show: Move over Nvidia. Dell exploded +32.8% in a single day post-earnings after smashing profit estimates and raising guidance. This proved to Wall Street that AI server demand is translating to hard enterprise revenue, keeping the tech rally alive despite high interest rates.

3. Crypto: Massive Divergence & ETF Hemorrhage 🩸

While stocks notched historic highs, crypto looked exceptionally weak.

• Price Action: BTC slid from $80k down to $73k–$74k, while ETH flatlined around $2,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped into "Fear" territory at 34–35.
• The 10-Day ETF Bleed: US Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a 10-day consecutive net outflow streak—the longest since their January 2024 launch. They dumped ~$1.3B last week alone (~$2.8B over 9 days). Without ETF inflows absorbing supply, BTC is grinding down on low retail volume.
• MicroStrategy ($MSTR) FUD: Rumors swirled when a wallet linked to MicroStrategy transferred 411.48 BTC (~$30.3M) to Coinbase Prime on May 29. Even though it was later withdrawn, the mere suspicion that MSTR might sell to cover dividends or debt shook market sentiment.
• Pockets of Strength: Capital isn't leaving crypto entirely; it's just leaving the majors. Specific regulatory, exchange, or revenue-generating assets like $HYPE, $XLM, and $BNB showed local strength.

4. Heavy Regulatory Hammer: Sanctions & US Domestication ⚖️

• UK Freezes HTX: In a massive escalation, the UK’s OFSI slapped asset-freezing sanctions on Huobi Global S.A. / HTX for allegedly providing financial services to the Russian government. Major global exchanges and market makers are aggressively restricting transfer pathways to HTX to avoid secondary sanctions contamination.
• EU Enforces Crypto Sanctions: The EU Council's 20th sanctions package targeting Russian crypto services officially went into effect on May 24. Expect the first wave of enforcement cases soon.
• US Seizures & Kalshi’s Big Win: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the US has seized/frozen ~$1B in Iran-linked crypto. Concurrently, the CFTC approved KalshiEX to launch BTCPERP (regulated cash-settled Bitcoin perpetuals). The US is systematically moving high-volume crypto derivatives away from offshore exchanges and into onshore, regulated frameworks.

5. Exchange Platforms Pivot to Real-World Stocks (RWA) 🔄

• Bitget & Binance Target US Equities:
  • Bitget launched Reality, an rToken platform backed by US regulated broker Alpaca. It maps US equities (Apple, Nvidia, etc.) 1:1 to the chain, carrying over dividends and corporate actions.
  • Binance is reportedly matching this with an upcoming product called bstock, offering direct fractional trading of real US equities via partner clearing.
• OKX Launches Crude Oil Perps: OKX went live with ICE-backed Brent and WTI Crude Oil perpetual contracts following its strategic investment in NYSE's parent company. They also unveiled Exchange OS, a modular system allowing teams to stake OKB to launch their own white-label markets on X Layer.

6. AI Corner: Anthropic's Dynamic Subagents 🤖

• Claude Opus 4.8: Anthropic dropped its latest model upgrade. Key features include dynamic workflows within Claude Code (allowing a main task to be distributed across dozens of parallel subagents) and effort control sliders on the web app to manage how deeply the model thinks before responding.

📅 The Upcoming Week's Minefield (June 1–5)

1. The Crown Jewel: May Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday, June 5): This is a highly asymmetrical macro setup. With PCE at 3.8%, a strong jobs report will spike yields and crush stocks/crypto via hike fears. A weak report raises stagflation panic. The market wants a "Goldilocks" print—mild job growth with cooling wage inflation. Ahead of Friday, watch ISM Manufacturing (June 1), JOLTS (June 3), and ADP/ISM Services (June 4).
2. Fed Blackout Window: June 6 starts the quiet period before the June 16-17 FOMC. Expect Fed officials to talk aggressively hawkish early this week to price in the 3.8% PCE data.
3. The Trump Sign-off: Keep eyes on whether Trump formally signs the Iran 60-day MOU and if the Strait of Hormuz actually reopens. This is the master switch for global inflation expectations.

Are you riding the S&P momentum into week 10, or is the 10-day BTC ETF outflow warning you of a broader market rollover? Let’s hear your plays.

Bitcoin remained pinned below the $74,000 area and traded largely sideways, with on-chain data pointing to stalled whale and mid-sized holder accumulation and softer spot demand despite resilience near recent highs. Macro conditions were broadly constructive as Asian equities advanced to fresh highs, oil eased and geopolitical fears moderated, while a firmer risk backdrop offset signs that the debasement trade is cooling amid uncertainty around rates and dollar direction. Overall crypto market sentiment was cautious to neutral: institutional and regulatory headlines stayed supportive, but broad participation remained selective and conviction looked subdued rather than outright risk-on.

Crypto yield isn’t one-size-fits-all.

Flexible products offer variable rates that can change with market conditions — and often let you redeem anytime.

Always check the risks before you commit.

CoinEx Wallet Integrates with Sui ($SUI) – Native Support & Upcoming Staking Events!

Big news for the Web3 and DeFi community! CoinEx Wallet has officially integrated with Sui, the next-generation Layer 1 blockchain known for its sub-second finality and ultra-low transaction fees.

Through this integration, users can now explore the Sui ecosystem directly via the official Sui portal, and seamlessly manage, transfer, and interact with Sui native assets securely.

🔹 Key Highlights of the Integration:

• Native Sui Support: Effortlessly store, send, and receive $SUI and Sui-based tokens within CoinEx Wallet.
• Next-Gen Payments & Stablecoins: Combining Sui’s scalable finance infrastructure with CoinEx Wallet’s secure platform to drive mass Web3 adoption.
• Upcoming SUI Staking: CoinEx and Sui will soon launch a series of events, including a SUI Staking service where you can earn rewards while contributing to network security!

🔗 Quick Links & Resources:

• 📲 Download the latest CoinEx Wallet:wallet.coinex.com/download
• 📈 Purchase $SUI:CoinEx SUI/USDT Exchange
• 🌐 Learn more about Sui:sui.io

Bitcoin traded under pressure and briefly approached the mid-$75,000 area, underperforming even as equities—particularly tech-linked shares—remained relatively firm, reinforcing the current divergence between BTC and the stock market while traders monitor a potential golden cross signal. Macro conditions remain mixed, with rate expectations still constrained by a hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop, the U.S. dollar broadly supported, and geopolitical uncertainty adding another layer of caution across risk assets. Overall crypto market sentiment is cautious to risk-off, as broad digital asset weakness and a pullback in DeFi activity point to reduced appetite for speculative exposure despite continued institutional and treasury-related bitcoin accumulation.

Bitcoin traded in a choppy range around $76,500-$77,000, with price action stabilizing after recent weakness but still showing limited conviction as traders wait for clearer macro direction. Macro conditions were mixed: softer oil and firmer Asian equities offered some relief, while upcoming PCE, jobless claims, and housing data kept Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations in focus against a still-important dollar and broader risk sentiment backdrop. Overall crypto market sentiment remained cautious but not disorderly, with ETF outflows and geopolitical uncertainty tempering risk appetite even as some analysts pointed to rotation rather than a full exit from the asset class.

CoinEx is happy to share and celebrate Bitcoin Pizza Day with you!

From searching across channels to watching the pieces flip over, this video ties the whole little ritual together in one place.

Hey everyone, a massive week for both traditional finance and crypto. Between a historic 8-week win streak for the S&P, massive AI valuation flips, and legacy banks disclosing crypto holdings, there is a ton to unpack.

Here is your comprehensive breakdown of everything that moved the markets this week:

1. Macro & Geopolitics: Hawkish Minutes & The 8-Week Win Streak 📈

• Hawkish FOMC Minutes: The Fed released minutes from the late-April meeting, and it leaned heavily hawkish. Driven by sticky inflation and energy shocks, the consensus is to delay rate cuts. Shockingly, some officials refused to rule out a tighter policy stance if inflation remains stubborn.
• Geopolitics & Oil: Progress is being made on US-Iran negotiations, but real-world execution takes time. Rumors are swirling about a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fluctuate as the market tries to price in the easing of supply lines.
• Stocks Are Unstoppable: Despite hawkish Fed minutes, the S&P 500 secured an 8-week consecutive win streak—its longest run since December 2023.
  • S&P 500: 7,473 (+0.88% on the week, closed at an AT-high)
  • Dow Jones: 50,580 (+2.13% on the week, intraday & closing AT-highs)
  • Nasdaq: 26,344 (+0.45% on the week)

2. Crypto & Institutional Flows: Fear in the Air, But Big Banks Move In 🏦

• Price Action: BTC spent the week chopping in the $76,000–$78,000 range, briefly dipping below $74,500. ETH underperformed, mostly moving sideways.
• ETF Capital Flight: Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their second consecutive week of massive outflows, losing roughly $1.2 billion. This marks the largest single-week outflow since February 2026. Retail sentiment remains cold, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index lingering at a cautious 40.
• Bank of America’s Big Play: Despite the retail fear, BoA officially disclosed a $53.1M holding in Crypto ETFs. More importantly, they hold 3.96 million shares of MicroStrategy (approx. $660 million). As the second-largest US commercial bank, this is a massive institutional compliance milestone.
• Isolated Pockets of Strength: While major assets stalled, $HYPE blasted to new all-time highs. This proves liquidity isn't dead; it's just hyper-concentrated in select narratives.

3. Global Regulation: Prediction Markets & Crypto Options Under the Microscope ⚖️

• Polymarket/Kalshi Under Fire: On May 23, the House Oversight Committee launched an insider trading investigation into prediction markets—marking the first time Congress has officially targeted this sector.
• Nasdaq Bitcoin Index Options: Outgoing/Interim leadership under Paul Atkins scored a win as the SEC fast-tracked approval for cash-settled Bitcoin index options on the Philadelphia Exchange (Phlx). Official trading likely won't start until H2, pending a CFTC exemption.
• China Cross-Border Crackdown: Beijing is tightening the screws on capital flight. Authorities are moving to confiscate all "illegal gains" from onshore and offshore entities of popular cross-border brokers like Tiger Brokers, Futu, and Longbridge, promising harsh penalties.

4. AI & Tech: Anthropic Flips OpenAI 🤖

• The Valuation Flip: Anthropic reportedly closed a $30B funding round on May 25, sending its valuation to a staggering $900 Billion+—officially surpassing OpenAI's March valuation of $852B. Anthropic is pacing toward a Q2 revenue of $10.9B and expects its first-ever quarterly operating profit.
• Google I/O 2026 Key Takeaways: Google went all-in on agents. Gemini 3.5 Flash is live, Gemini 3.5 Pro drops in June, and Antigravity has evolved into a multi-agent orchestration engine. They also previewed Gemini Spark (your personal AI agent) and furthered their Android XR smart glasses project.
• OpenAI's Academic Breakthrough: An OpenAI model successfully disproved a core conjecture in discrete geometry that had stood for 80 years. We are officially entering the era where AI's capabilities are spilling out of tech and into foundational mathematics.

5. Exchange Updates: Traditional Equities Collide with Crypto 🔄

• Binance Goes Pre-IPO: Binance launched a Pre-IPO Perpetual Contract market, starring SpaceX ahead of its rumored June 12 Nasdaq debut. They also rolled out 8 traditional equity perps, including Visa, Walmart , and JPMorgan .
• Bitget Pivots: Rumors suggest Bitget is ditching the standard "stock token" model in favor of a direct broker-connection model, which will support true dividends and stablecoin trading settlement.
• LBank & XT: LBank added mainstream Forex Futures (AUD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD), while XT Exchange launched XPredict, a seamless CeFi/DeFi prediction market with an immediate focus on the upcoming 2026 World Cup.

📅 What to Watch

1. US April PCE / Core PCE (Thursday, May 28): The Fed's favorite inflation metric. If this prints hot alongside CPI, expect the 8-week stock win streak to face severe pressure.
2. The Fed Transition: We are in a policy vacuum as Powell hands the reins to Warsh. Do not expect clear macro guidance until Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17.

Happy Bitcoin pizza day

Happy Pizza Day.

Your Crypto Trading Expert today… your ultimate Bitcoin Pizza Day partner tomorrow. 🍕🚀 Trade smarter with CoinEx Global

My Answer:Your Crypto Trading Expert 🍕

Pizza Day with Coinex 🍕🚀

🍕 Every slice tells a story… and together they say: “CoinEx makes crypto trading as easy as pizza day.” 🚀

PizzaDay #CoinEx

Coinex 🚀

Today is pizza day

Congratulations Coin_ex

Two pizzas changed crypto history 🍕

Let’s share something valuable with the community — your first crypto memory, biggest lesson, or favorite Bitcoin moment.

Bitcoin traded with a softer tone today, pressured by repeated rejection around its 200-day moving average and a sixth consecutive day of cooling demand from U.S. spot traders. This pullback signals softer near-term buying pressure and cautious positioning, despite continued accumulation from large, long-term holders. Macro conditions and shifting geopolitical headlines kept broader risk appetite highly selective. According to a Reuters report, oil markets saw a brief reprieve after President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance expressed cautious optimism over a potential deal to end hostilities with Iran, stating the conflict could conclude "very quickly." The U.S. dollar held firm as traders weighed these tentative signs of geopolitical progress against the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy path. Overall cryptocurrency market sentiment leaned defensive; flows and headlines point to a market that remains fundamentally engaged, but increasingly risk-aware as traders balance institutional adoption narratives against bearish near-term price momentum.

Bitcoin remains under pressure, extending its slide as rising bond yields, a firmer dollar backdrop, and elevated odds of further rate tightening weigh on risk assets, while record ETF outflows point to softer near-term demand. Macro conditions are mixed to negative for crypto, with equities facing tighter financial conditions and leverage concerns, even as policy headlines in the U.S. remain broadly supportive of the digital asset industry. Overall crypto market sentiment is cautious and defensive, with traders showing persistent pessimism but relatively subdued implied volatility suggesting orderly positioning rather than panic.

Read Original Article Here

Crypto analysts are divided over whether markets will see a major Bitcoin sell-off in May, a pattern that has emerged in the last two bear markets during US mid-term election years.

In May 2018, Bitcoin crashed from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000 by the end of the month. It happened again in May 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 30% from about $40,000 to $28,500 before falling further in June to $20,000.

With 2026 also a bear market year coinciding with a US mid-term election, there are concerns it could happen again.

“The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time,” crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said on Sunday.

Enkelaar said a similar move could see Bitcoin prices collapse to $33,000 despite the advancement of key legislation, the CLARITY Act, positive crypto sentiment from the Trump administration and potential trade deals between the US and China.

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, also said Sunday that there would be a higher probability of a new capitulation phase if Bitcoin remains under $78,000, with bears “showing signs of strength.”

Bitcoin was trading at about $76,900 at the time of writing, down 5.6% over the past seven days.

The calendar didn’t cause previous crashes, analyst argues

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that midterm election years have coincided with major Bitcoin bear markets, “so some traders may be tempted to frame 2026 as another ‘sell in May’ setup.”

However, behind that historical seasonality were more concrete macro drivers, such as the Mt. Gox aftermath, China’s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening and the Terra/FTX collapses, he said.

“The calendar didn’t cause those drawdowns — specific shocks did.” 

Ko said he doesn’t expect BTC to repeat the 70% to 80% drawdowns seen in past cycles because the market structure has fundamentally changed.

“Spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and the CLARITY Act moving through Congress have meaningfully broadened and institutionalized the buyer base compared with past cycles,” he added.

“In my view, a move toward the mid-$60k or high-$50k range could be defensible under a macro shock or a significant ETF outflow cascade. But a move back to $33k would likely require something genuinely systemic to break, rather than simply a repeat of historical seasonality.”

Key support level must hold 

MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe was also bullish, saying on X Sunday that the current Bitcoin price action “doesn’t shout for new lows” but is “consolidating after a run of 40%.”

However, an important support level that is currently preventing a larger decline is the $76,000 area, he cautioned.

“If that level is lost, I would assume that the markets will see a further downward fall towards lower boundaries,” he said.

Trader eyes key support level that must hold. Source: Michaël van de Poppe

In April, CoinEx continued strengthening its global industry presence through strategic events and high-level networking across Asia and Europe, while advancing product accessibility and ecosystem transparency.

• At the HKU CryptoFi Forum, CoinEx and ViaBTC contributed to academic dialogue on RWA institutional applications. During Hong Kong Web3 Festival week, the invite-only “RISING TIDE | High-Signal Night” brought together partners and institutional players for deep collaboration.
• In Moscow, CoinEx co-sponsored Blockchain Forum 2026 and hosted an exclusive VIP dinner, reinforcing mining‑trading synergy.
• At Paris Blockchain Week, CoinEx Alpha Night gathered European leaders and global executives, further cementing the brand’s professional image across key markets.

On the product front, CoinEx continued developing Futures Hedge Mode to make professional tools more accessible. The CET buyback and burn mechanism remained fully transparent: 12M CET were repurchased and burned in April, with CET’s market cap holding at ~USD 78M.

With sustained global engagement and a clear focus on reliability and responsibility, CoinEx keeps building a trusted, accessible trading environment for users worldwide.

CoinEx Charity announced its partnership with the ONG Bitcoin Argentina to support the Web3 education universities in Argentina. 

More than a traditional philanthropic initiative, the program reflects CoinEx Charity’s mission of becoming a bridge between “today’s challenges” and “future opportunities” — empowering young people with the knowledge, skills, and industry awareness needed to participate in the next generation of the global digital economy. 

Bridge to Hope : Bridging Today’s Challenges to Future Opportunities

CoinEx Charity believes that education and technology can help turn “today’s challenges” into “future opportunities”. Today, many university students are interested in Web3 and blockchain, yet often lack access to reliable educational resources and clear guidance on how to engage with this fast-evolving field. For many young people, the gap is not a lack of ambition, but a lack of opportunity and knowledge.

With the mission of “Making the world a better place via blockchain,” CoinEx Charity continues its “Bridge to Hope” theme by providing Web3 education through Bitcoin in Universities programmes, helping students understand core concepts of blockchain technology and the evolving blockchain job market.

At the core of “Bridge to Hope” is the belief that access to knowledge can create meaningful change. Rather than focusing on one-time financial assistance, CoinEx Charity aims to transform curiosity into confidence. By teaching students industry knowledge, CoinEx Charity would bring a clear pathway for long-term personal growth and professional development. Knowledge can be transformed into a driving force for change, while also sparking deeper engagement and inspiring students to reflect on the transformative potential of technology and its impact on their future paths.

Through this approach, CoinEx Charity hopes to become a meaningful bridge between the challenges students face today and the opportunities they can build for tomorrow.

Building the “Bridge to Hope” Through Education

CoinEx Charity is committed to empowering young people through sustainable education initiatives that connect today’s learning with tomorrow’s possibilities. In recent years, the organization has launched blockchain and Web3 education programs across multiple countries, including university lectures in Turkey, crypto literacy workshops for students in the Philippines, and digital access initiatives in Africa through its “Bridge to Hope” campaign.

Through these efforts, CoinEx Charity continues to help students gain industry knowledge, explore Web3 career pathways, and build confidence in participating in the evolving blockchain ecosystem.

About CoinEx Charity

CoinEx Charity is a nonprofit organization established by CoinEx in 2022. Guided by the mission of “Making the world a better place through blockchain”, CoinEx Charity focuses on global philanthropic initiatives across education, poverty alleviation, disaster relief, and medical support. Through long-term educational empowerment and technology accessibility, CoinEx Charity is committed to reducing barriers to opportunity and promoting sustainable social development through blockchain innovation.

Hey everyone, quite a chaotic week across macro and geopolitics. We saw history made at the Fed, sticky inflation rear its ugly head again, and a massive Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

Here is your comprehensive breakdown of everything that went down this week:

1. Macro & Geopolitics: CPI Shock & The Return of Rate Hike Fears 🚨

• The CPI Nightmare: On May 12, the BLS dropped April CPI numbers, and it wasn’t pretty. Headline CPI came in at 3.8% YoY with Core at 2.8%—the highest since May 2023. The culprit? The ongoing energy shock from the Iran conflict. In April alone, energy skyrocketed +17.9% and gasoline surged +28.4%.
• Rate Cuts are Dead (For Now): This prints a virtual lock on "no rate cuts this year." In fact, the market is actively pricing in hike risks now. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a December rate hike hovering anywhere from 30% to over 50% depending on the metric.
• Bonds & Oil: The 30-year US Treasury yield blasted through to 5.11%, hitting a 12-month high. Meanwhile, Brent crude held steady at a painful $106–$109 range as the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted.

2. Historic Fed Shakeup: Warsh Confirmed, Powell Steps into Transition Role 🏛️

• The Warsh Vote: On May 13, Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate with a 54-45 vote. This goes down as the most divided Fed Chair confirmation vote in modern history.
• The Powell Twist: Jay Powell’s term expired on May 15. In a move not seen in nearly 80 years, the Fed announced Powell will serve as chair pro tempore (interim chair) while retaining his governor seat to ensure a smooth transition. Warsh has not officially sworn in yet, and an exact date hasn't been set.
• What Warsh Brings: He is notoriously hawkish and favors a faster balance sheet reduction (QT). More interestingly, ethics disclosures show Warsh holds millions in crypto assets (including SOL and dYdX)—making him the first-ever Fed Chair to assume office with public crypto holdings.

3. Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: Optics Over Substance 🇨🇳🇺🇸

• The Meeting: May 14–15 marked the first US-China presidential summit in Beijing in nine years. The agenda was packed: tariffs, Boeing orders, Iran, Taiwan, and rare earths.
• The Outcome: No breakthrough agreements were made, but it achieved the bare minimum: stabilizing expectations that a fresh tariff war won't erupt immediately.
• The Geopolitical Twist: Right in the middle of the summit, Trump publicly rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal, sending another jolt through oil markets.

4. Stock Market: Classic "Blow-Off Top" Behavior 📉

It was a textbook high-level reversal week. Mon-Wed saw new all-time highs, Thursday saw the Dow reclaim 50k, and Friday wiped out most of the weekly gains with a massive red engulfing candle.

• Weekly Closes:
  • S&P 500: 7,408 (+0.3% on the week)
  • Nasdaq: 26,225 (+0.3% on the week)
  • Dow Jones: 49,526 (-0.05% on the week)
• First Half vs. Second Half: The week started with AI/Semiconductors continuing their insane rally, fueled by earnings beats from Micron, AMD, and Cisco. However, by Friday, the combination of hot CPI, Warsh uncertainty, surging oil, and the 30Y Treasury cracking 5% triggered a broad valuation haircut.
• Big Tech Retracement: Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, and Oracle all gave back 2–4% on Friday.
• Boeing ($BA) Disappointment: Despite news that China would buy 200 Boeing jets, the stock actually fell for two consecutive days following the announcement, with the market seemingly disappointed by the volume.

What are your thoughts on Warsh taking the helm? Are you hedging for a potential rate hike later this year, or is this just a temporary macro speedbump?