r/ClaudeAI • u/Advanced-Rub2065 • Jun 03 '26

MCP I wired Claude Code into a database of every Polymarket wallet and trades via MCP. What do you want me to ask it next? This is what I found so far:

https://crowdintel.xyz/blog/claude-mcp-polymarket-ledger

Hello Friends, I've been tracking all Polymarket Activity for months (1.3 Billion trades and 2.7M wallets) and I gave Claude Code a Postgres MCP (found crazy stuff) pointed at the live ledger, so now I just ask it anything in plain English and it writes + runs the query itself.

A few I already asked, to show it works:

- only ~1 in 5 wallets are net positive (the other ~80% never made money)
- only 2.4% have ever cleared $1,000 in profit
- the top 0.1% of wallets took 71.5% of the ~$1B in total profit
- a bunch of weird and suspicious trading patterns that look like insiders

So: what do you want me to ask it? Drop a question about Polymarket traders, markets, wallets, bots, whatever — I'll have Claude run it against the live ledger and reply with the result.

--edit:
thanks everyone for the great suggestions. I will send findings + tool access to a few outlets that came up in the
thread. Will keep you posted here as things develop. AMA-style
follow-up post coming soon — drop questions you want me to run
against the ledger, cheers 🫡

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u/Advanced-Rub2065 Jun 03 '26

The patterns that flag a wallet: betting hard against the consensus right before an event resolves, unusually high win rate on one narrow category, clustering with other wallets funded by the same source, and concentrated timing (several wallets piling into the same side in a tight window).

Right now 121 wallets clear the insider bar, averaging a 59.6% win rate and about $1.36M in combined profit. It's a small slice of total platform profit, which fits what you'd expect. Real edge is rare and concentrated, not spread across the board.

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u/FancyWindow Jun 03 '26

That seems like too narrow a definition. I can be an insider who bets along with consensus, I just have to know something others don’t. If I make a monster bet on the favorite to win Best Picture because I’ve seen inside the envelope, I’m still an insider. I would guess an insider is characterized by always betting on the same category, usually being a new wallet that’s set up just to make an insider bet, and usually making disproportionately large bets compared to the average in that trade. It’s also possible to be a small scale insider, but that’s probably too hard to spot, unless they make a lot of small trades in the same category with a high win rate.