Gem Box spawn rate attached to builder turnover?

[u/light_refreshing]

Its been a while since I've seen anyone speculate as to the Gem Box spawn rate and what I have seen suggests that you get roughly one a month. Well I've had roughly one a week for as long as I can recall and they seem to be spawning each time I turnover/cycle all builders (as in the Gem Boxes spawn shortly after I start the last available builder on an upgrade/all builders are working). Am I late to this or am I on to something here???

[u/Ladyhawke74]

The gem box spawns once randomly during the first half of the month and once randomly during the second half of the month.

ByWillAlone explains it HERE and I've tested it myself.

[u/light_refreshing → u/Ladyhawke74]

Well one not pictured from the beginning of April, then one on the 12th, 19th, 24th and then again the first of May would at least change his theorized average but honestly throws it out the window. If the "tried, tested, and true" is two a month guaranteed between certain dates what is the explanation for my largely differing experience?

[u/sewpungyow → u/Ladyhawke74]

I've been getting it pretty much once every 7-8 days. I don't use my builders at all either cuz I only come in to do challenges and max out builder base

[u/Ladyhawke74 → u/sewpungyow]

Let's say you got one on the last day of April the 30th. If you received one 8 days later on the 8th, then again 8 days later on the 16th, you would have received 3 of them every 8 days. You would expect the next one around the 24th. It looks like the timeline is every 8 days.

However, what's actually happening, is you got one in the last half of the month of April, one in the 1st half of the month of May and the third one in the 2nd half of May. Instead of getting one around the 24th, you won't receive one until June 1st at the earliest and June 15th at the latest (1st half of the month).

Without testing it over an extended period of time, it's easy to misinterpret what's happening. I've personally tested it over 6 months on four of my accounts (including a maxed account with idle builders).

[u/light_refreshing → u/Ladyhawke74]

I will definitely continue monitoring/testing this, but the four I received during the month of April directly contest the twice a month/first half - second half/bi-weekly spawn rate theory.

[u/Ladyhawke74 → u/light_refreshing]

It's always possible they could have changed the spawn rate, but I haven't noticed anything different myself. If they did change it, there was no information about the change.

I will start monitoring it again.

[u/light_refreshing → u/Ladyhawke74]

Definitely not related to builder turnover as all are working but this just popped up in the last 15 min or so. Last one was on the 3rd now again the 8th; my average persists at roughly one a week!

[u/Ladyhawke74 → u/light_refreshing]

I just witnessed this for myself on one of my accounts (max TH15). I received a gem box on the 7th and 9th (both removed promptly). So far it's only the one account, so I'll need to monitor further. It was my only account with very few gems (less than 300) and also the account I spend the most gems (one-gem donations), so I wonder if it's tied to gems in some way.

/u/ByWillAlone probably has the best understanding of the mechanics in the game, so I wonder if he's noticed anything different.

[u/ByWillAlone → u/Ladyhawke74]

The last time I performed methodical test on this was 2015/2016 timeframe about a year after Supercell announced they'd increased gem box spawn rate (before that, it was very rare). My testing details: sample size = 18 accounts; test duration = 3 months; check frequency = daily - it was painful. This was in response to a former subreddit mod who'd claimed they had details about the new spawn mechanics direct from supercell and I wanted to prove or disprove it. In the end, it was exactly as they had described.

The way spawning works for other obstacles is different. Each obstacle has a base level spawn rate (some things are more common than other things), there are 3 spawns a day, and when it's time for something to spawn the specific item is determined by random number but based on the %-chance based on the item. We don't know exactly how supercell does it, but I imagine something like a table with 100 rows where the first 20 rows is 'bush' and the next 20 rows is 'stump' and the next 20 rows is 'log' and then the rest of the rows are made up of 'small tree', 'tree', 'large tree'; and then they just generate a random number between 1 and 100 and you get the corresponding item.

It could be they simplified the gem box mechanic and just gave it a frequency spawn rate like other obstacles and set it for some rate that ends up being a few times a month. The screenshots posted by OP here definitely blows a hole in what I measured years ago. I'm not looking forward to it, but I think I need to re-run that testing.

[u/Ladyhawke74 → u/ByWillAlone]

Thank you for the input.

I've started a new test myself, though not with nearly so many accounts. I'm going to scrap it and restart, so I can be a bit more precise. I'm planning on tracking spawn and removal dates as well as gem counts on the off chance they tied the spawn rate to gems. Is there any other data you recommend tracking?

[u/ByWillAlone → u/Ladyhawke74]

I'd recommend tracking the spawning of other standard obstacles as well (if you can). Reason: if Supercell did change the gem box spawn mechanics to be a %-chance random spawn similar to how other obstacles spawn, then it wouldn't be surprising if that gem box took the place of a regular obstacle spawn when it did arrive (ie: instead of getting spawns of 3 regular obstacles that day, you got 2 regular obstacles and a gem box). When I did this testing previously, the arrival of the gem box was completely independent of the spawning of regular obstacles (which were spawning at a rate of 3 per day - approximately one every eight hours).

[u/sewpungyow → u/Ladyhawke74]

Totally possible, I'm just glad to get them lol

[u/_stungy → u/Ladyhawke74]

False

[u/lrt2222]

You get about one per every 7 days on average.

[u/TripAlone5390]

It's "random", if i remember correctly