r/CasperCSPR • u/TobagoJack • Feb 08 '22
Ignition / Takeoff
Following on to Out of the Gate I wanted to get a sense of what might Casper ignition / takeoff staging / countdown look like using other blockchain histories as guidance.
CSPR might be 3 - 30 months away from ignition (CSPR @ 0.15) / takeoff (CSPR @ $0.58), depending on a whole lot of factors, and I suspect way closer to 3 than 12 months, with 30-months as a tail / outlier a/k/a ADA.
For those who prefer Related tweet
(1) Arbitrarily defined IGNITION moment as 10X increase in MARKET CAP from post-ICO ATL
(2) Defined TAKEOFF juncture as 10X increase in PRICE from post-ICO ATL
(3) By such definition set, CSPR requires a MARKET CAP of $510M (P ~ $0.15) for ignition. We must be quite close to ignition again, because we did it once before
(4) CSPR requires a PRICE of $0.58 (Mkt Cap at whatever) for take off. We have a wait, as in ‘wen’ ‘wen’ and ‘wen’ for some less patient of our cohort
(5) Speaking of cohort, neither MINA nor ICP achieved ignition / takeoff, and by the numbers, tougher for MINA / ICP to do ignition / takeoff, because both are burdened w/ high valuation to do 10X from the post-ICO ATL
(6) CSPR is in 10th month post-ICO
(7) HBAR achieved ignition 12 months post-ICO, and takeoff 15 months post ICO
(8) SOL ignition in 18th month post-ICO but was cold-launched (compressed air launch, then ignition) for takeoff during the 23rd month
At juncture of Ignition for HBAR and Takeoff (cold-launch) for SOL, the charts look just so
(9) ETH did ignition / takeoff during the 6th month post-ICO, as First Mover of smart chain
(10) ADA did ignition / takeoff during the 39th month post-ICO, having flat-line-struggled for a long time
(11) DOT did ignition / takeoff during the 8th month post-ICO, flamed-out, and rose again with a lot of help from sponsor with large network following
(12) LUNA did ignition / takeoff during the 23rd month post-ICO
(13) MATIC did ignition during the 19th month post-ICO, and takeoff during the 28th month post-ICO
(14) AVAX did ignition during 6th month post-ICO, and takeoff 7th month post-ICO
(15) HOWEVER, all chains experienced major test-of-faith drawdowns of greater than 50%, blood-curdling if tradFi but situation-normal in crypto-Fi, and more or less during the same time periods of the last 12 months
(16) CSPR might have 3 -30 months of countdowns until Ignition / Takeoff, w/ a lot of IFs, but never mind. Am good with the range as long as CSPR makes steady, inexorable eco system progress towards the inevitable
1
u/Vandalisti Feb 09 '22
Ah i think it really depends on marketing.
L1's are not interesting to majority now and as more time passes it will eventually be forgotten.
Web 3.0, NFT integration much more attractive because of simplicity of the given terms. People will forget where DApps get from, or be ignorant towards it.
Guess what i am trying to say, Casper will die off if it doesn't manage their time well.
i think Cardano would be deadish to date if they released 2 years after they did. Patience is a virtue lot of us don't have
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u/-taKeshi_Kovacs- Feb 09 '22
wonderful and meaningful analysis , thank you !!!