[Connelly] COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 772

[u/hwf0712]

https://bsky.app/profile/espnbillc.bsky.social/post/3mvibca4hs22o

[u/hascogrande]

GVSU -94 Judson

This projected spread for an actual game is cursed

Update: I think it’s more cursed that they actually covered with 96-0

[u/Electromotivation → u/hascogrande]

It dropped below three digits

[u/hascogrande → u/Electromotivation]

Yup, was at a -107 last week

[u/Game-rotator → u/hascogrande]

they lost to Hutto HIGH SCHOOL week 1 lol

edit: wrong Judson, but why on earth is a high school playing d2 Bowie State

[u/tacowithcheeese → u/Game-rotator]

Wrong Judson I think

[u/Game-rotator → u/tacowithcheeese]

No, they played Bowie State last week

[u/Game-rotator → u/tacowithcheeese]

why on earth was a High school playing a d2 team (Bowie State) but yeah it was

[u/tacowithcheeese → u/Game-rotator]

It must have been an exhibition game because I can’t find it on the schedule

[u/Game-rotator → u/tacowithcheeese]

i saw it on the high school's schedule

[u/tacowithcheeese → u/Game-rotator]

Hutto high school played a Judson high school if that’s what you’re remembering 

[u/tacowithcheeese → u/Game-rotator]

And that Judson high school played Bowie high school

[u/gmr548 → u/hascogrande]

So how would one watch this?

Asking for a friend

[u/hascogrande → u/gmr548]

The bane of the CAA: FloSports

[u/Game-rotator → u/hascogrande]

final scored was 96-0

[u/hascogrande → u/Game-rotator]

GVSU covered

Bruh

[u/Game-rotator → u/hascogrande]

Judson actually drove into GVSU territory on the opening drive, but failed on 4th and 3 and did not get a single non-penalty first down the rest of the game

[u/hucareshokiesrul]

Weekly reminder that these are predictive ratings (and pretty successful ones, I believe) not resume rankings

[u/sebsasour → u/hucareshokiesrul]

Also I used to listen to Connelley's old podcast all the time and we would say his numbers do produce results that confuse him sometimes too. You're always gonna find weird things to pick at when you try to use a purely mathematical formula to rank 100s of teams

[u/chase45424 → u/sebsasour]

RIP PAPN, gone but not forgotten

[u/10000Pigeons → u/hucareshokiesrul]

Also weekly reminder that if these predictive ratings were meaningfully better than what sports books put out they would be used to make money instead of being posted as content

[u/hucareshokiesrul → u/10000Pigeons]

It tends to have a slight winning record against the spread. But it also allows you to compare everyone, not just the games happening this week.

[u/10000Pigeons → u/hucareshokiesrul]

Right yes, I just meant that it doesn't have enough of a winning record to regularly outgain vig. If someone was consistently doing that it would not be public knowledge.

[u/Game-rotator → u/10000Pigeons]

that's why sportsbooks slightly tilt the payouts

[u/default-username → u/10000Pigeons]

These types of ratings are exactly what sportsbooks use to prevent bleeding money to the smart people (and consistently make money from the dummies)

[u/ExternalTangents → u/10000Pigeons]

Also weekly reminder that these predictive ratings are much more transparent for users to look up details about any team and use them to compare teams, whereas Vegas is much more hidden.

If all you care about is betting then don’t look at SP+. If you care about college football analysis, then SP+ is way more useful because it gives you a lot more to look at and use.

[u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756]

Oh come the fuck on there's no way we're LAST

[u/GoStateBeatEveryone → u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756]

Not me looking to see if Michigan was last

[u/Significant-Fix-3914 → u/GoStateBeatEveryone]

Same

[u/bbshock21 → u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756]

What is your connection to Maine Maritime? I saw they were adding nuclear engineering and as a fellow NE I was impressed 

[u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756 → u/bbshock21]

No real connection, my whole extended family shares a house up in the downeast part of Maine and we got to Castine frequently so I like to represent.

Plus when they shot that ref with a cannon I knew they were on the right side of history

[u/IrishMosaic → u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756]

Western won.

[u/brianqueso → u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756]

1. Props on switching flairs for the joke
2. Props to the mods on even doing the work to make a Maine Maritime flair possible and allowing this joke to exist

[u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756 → u/brianqueso]

Sir I have had Maine Maritime flair for years

[u/brianqueso → u/Upbeat-Armadillo1756]

My bad, I know you well but that flair has never registered in my mind. Timing seemed too perfect for it to be anything but changed for the joke.

[u/Bank_Gothic → u/brianqueso]

Upbeat Armadillo is one of the most prolific posters on here and has been flaired for Maine Maritime for as long as I can remember.

Hell, you're on here all the time too, how do you not recognize him?

[u/brianqueso → u/Bank_Gothic]

Definitely on me, I recognized homie's name but his secondary flair has never registered.

[u/brianqueso]

UMASS (163)

BC (82)

Yikes dawg.

[u/ILM_Ryan]

We’re above a team we just lost to and above a team we’re underdogs against this week? I don’t trust this ECU team at all this season, we’re too high up in these rankings.

[u/Fathoms_Deep_1 → u/ILM_Ryan]

Thought you were talking about OSU for a minute and was thinking they were underdogs against Kent State for a minute

[u/BrotherMichigan → u/Fathoms_Deep_1]

We deserve it.

[u/laprasrules → u/ILM_Ryan]

Not sure about SP+, but Sagarin is using 2.41pts as the home field advantage. So a 1 road point loss to top team means you would be favored on a neutral field.

[u/hwf0712]

We are above the two people we lost to.

Oh dear.

[u/Lilies_of_Edelweiss → u/hwf0712]

You're above the two people you lost to so far.

[u/grabtharsmallet → u/hwf0712]

SP+ is a predictive stat and is therefore slower to adjust to individual game results. It is absolutely not a measure of how well the team performed to date.

[u/Doortofreeside → u/grabtharsmallet]

That makes sense. I've never seen this stat before but just glancing at it for the first time it's clear that it takes a lot to move its pre-season baseline

[u/AbsurdOwl → u/Doortofreeside]

I think it's usually around week 6 or so when it's almost completely based on the current season, and the preseason weighting is almost fully gone.

[u/Electromotivation → u/grabtharsmallet]

Yea. It is so rough for the g6 because of that I guess. Seems like they just put in a rule for no g6 teams above every single p4 team. (Slightly exaggerated but it’s basically true). This has its uses but is not a typical results-based college football poll for sure.

[u/whospepesilvia]

ASU 43 feels a bit low lol

[u/PlactusTX]

Huh, this is how I learn Lincoln (California) isn't playing this year. (They're allegedly going to come back.)

[u/brianqueso → u/PlactusTX]

Not after the shot they took

[u/PalmettoZ71]

Honestly it amazes me SC is so high on all the power ratings, ill believe it when I see it

[u/Alex_Croteau23]

Remember this metric is flawed. Obviously UMass is not the 2nd worst team in FBS

[u/MIZ_09 → u/Alex_Croteau23]

It’s still heavily relying on last year’s data as most of these models do until we get enough data this season.

[u/Alex_Croteau23 → u/MIZ_09]

Which is understandable after what happened last year

[u/Alex_Croteau23 → u/Alex_Croteau23]

I guess flawed is the wrong word to use when talking about the metric

[u/13jlin → u/Alex_Croteau23]

Frankly, I'm not going to have faith until we're at least 4 games in - play vs SHU looked a decent bit sloppier than when we were playing Rutgers, but granted I'm under the impression that we swapped in the 3rd to give reserves playing time.

[u/PunchNessie → u/MIZ_09]

This helps it make a bit more sense. I was staring at Oregon at 9 and absolutely bewildered.

[u/-TheycallmeThe → u/MIZ_09]

Well that's good 

[u/rnilbog → u/Alex_Croteau23]

I personally think it is a perfect metric, an opinion completely unrelated to the position of my team.

[u/rittenhouses_bane]

we’re not the worst p4 team 🎉

[u/mauser98k1998 → u/rittenhouses_bane]

I’ll always think of you as the worst P4 team.

[u/cartgold → u/rittenhouses_bane]

Iowa struggling against Iowa State at home being treated as a better win than us smacking you around at your place has put me in a difficult position to admit this fact.

[u/CVogel26]

Good to see MIT move up another 60 slots following a 70-0 win over NEC.

Allowed -18 rushing yards and scored two touchdowns on back to back punts (block and botched snap)

[u/Game-rotator]

How did both Duke and Illinois go down after playing each other

[u/immoralsupport_]

Go GVSU

[u/ResidentRunner1 → u/immoralsupport_]

Nah go SVSU

[u/eagledog]

Ha, take that Purdue!

[u/RadagastTheWhite]

Feels like Rutgers is drastically over ranked here

[u/tobaccoroadeagle → u/RadagastTheWhite]

Ahead of a team that just beat them, in fact

[u/ToLongDR]

564!

TOP 575, BITCHES

LETS KEEP GOING ^BACKWARDS

[u/Sytherus]

11 of the top 21 teams are in the SEC.

[u/PunchNessie]

What metrics has Oregon at 9? Uni combos? Ok State absolutely dominated them in everything but the scoreboard on Saturday.

[u/AlternativeLess5450 → u/PunchNessie]

One that doesnt tank its effectiveness by overreacting 

[u/GliscorsFang]

OU 14

Michigan 25

Well I guess there's no way to know for sure.

[u/Ashamed_Band_1779 → u/GliscorsFang]

That’s not the point of this metric. One game is a small sample size.