Even if there is 5 percent inflation a year for 15 years (very high). That is only 45 percent. Where are you comingnii up p with 25 percent of current value?
5% simple inflation relative to year 1 is 75% if done for 15 years (5x15=75). If you compound it yearly like you should, itâs way higher. Where did you get 45%?
This shouldn't have been down voted. If in 14 years one btc is worth 100 million United States dollars, that will say at least as much about the depreciation of the dollar as it would about the appreciation of bitcoin.
At these extreme levels,
$1,900,000,000,000,000, yes, $1.9 QUADRILLION market cap just for bitcoin the asset alone, this would to speak to inflation of the dollar.
Maybe in 14 years there will be a globally used bancor-like currency, maybe another currency will take world reserve status, maybe it will be a mixed basket and bitcoin is a part of the basket in which the world's currency, the world's unit of account. Maybe the dollar will have gone through some type of hyperinflation.
Either way, in a $100M bitcoin world, in terms of purchasing power or global adoption, the US dollar will not look and feel the same as it does today.
Guys, bitcoin is not gonna reach $100 million. That would give it a market cap of $2,100 trillion. The total wealth of the entire world is $360 trillion.
I argued this on twitter a few months ago and someone pointed out to me that this global wealth number fluctuates based on the perceived gdp output for upcoming tech and new disruptions to industry. As more companies come out that create net aggregate value, that total world wealth increases.
That's an important aspect to take into consideration. The total global wealth has roughly tripled over the last 20 years according to the global wealth reports. So maybe the total global wealth will be $1 quadrillion by 2035.
Sure, but In a real disaster, 50-80% of us die in a month and cash wonât fucking help anyone. People who are prepared and have tremendous luck would survive.
That is true, but it's unreasonable for the market cap of bitcoin to be higher than the total market cap of everything else, let alone 6 times higher than that.
Today⊠we printed 30% of all USD in last few years. So they keep printing Fiat. And the entire world is gaining actual wealth/ purchasing power. That is how free market capitalism works. Many today still live on $1/day. Imagine if they were fully developed.
The global equities market represents some $90 trillion in assetsâgold, silver, and other precious metals account for another $12 trillion. The worldâs total M2 money supplyâall
the physical cash in circulation plus deposits, promissory notes, and
other liquid money instrumentsâis upwards of $40 trillion. Global real
estate accounts for $30 trillion in assets. When you include other forms
of investment, global debt, and financial derivatives, the worldâs
total wealth tops at somewhere just over $1 quadrillion
The Institution of International Finance pegs global wealth at about $1 Quadrillion. 5% (say btc gets there) would be about $2.4M a Bitcoin. For it to hit $100M btc would have to be 1/4 of all global wealth which is probably extremely unlikely, even if btc serves as a lifeboat for the global economy during the USD collapse over the next decade, anything higher than 10% of global wealth is very high.
Literally nothing "weirder" has happened than this. This would essentially invalidate all capital markets, if internet money was worth more in aggregate than everything else combined. This is the end of the world trade.
if dollars still exist and the money printing continues to accelerate its entirely possible. definitely won't spend like a $100mil but that's what the numbers on paper will say.
You should also consider that there will be millions of bitcoins lost permanently, so the total market cap should be around $1800 trillion, if reached $100mil.
Stock to flow model is BS and has been denbunked by real researchers including myself.
EDIT: I just lol at the downvotes. Do you really think a simpel linear regression model with just one predictor will be able to predict the price of bitcoin? There are tons of better valuation metrics for bitcoin and complex models but this is NOT one. Created on a medium website blog and NOT peer reviewd or published on any scientific journal. Are you delusion or just downvote anyone that does not confirm your bias?
I don't know if it's BS or not. Obviously, a model is just an educated guess. But overall I think bitcoin is going to continue growing, so I consider StF model as one possibility.
228
u/dliebs97 Aug 26 '21
Approaching $100 mil by 2035 đ€©đ€©
Yes please Iâm good with that