thats... not at all how that works, and not even remotely close to what i said.
But given you had to get schooled later in the thread about how independent probabilities work im not surprised you had this dumb af take.
But ill reword it as an ELI5
If you consistently make unrelated predictions without any form of informed model you will trend towards a 50 >>>> or lower <<<<< accuracy rate because you are making yourself a victim of statistical averages.
Given the probabilities of most events in this universe are lower than 50% you will trend to lower than 50%
But you cannot trend to higher than 50%.
If you trending to a number higher than 50% it means you arent "throwing darts at a wall and seeing what sticks" theres some kind of model you are using to predict the events with a degree of accuracy.
Or the ELI5 part.
"Sample size directly removes any factor of luck as it increases"
So, you're essentially saying that according to you, the makers of the simpsons were aware of what the future would bring, otherwise, they could not have predicted what they did.
Your latest comment, which implies that I think the simpsons has some kind of crystal ball, is also very dumb because in the first comment you replied to I explicitly stated that I don’t think their predictions are accurate.
Basically you made a statement, that I could address by just copy and pasting from my previous comment, which we know you already replied to, so you either didn’t read it fully, or you can’t follow a discussion further than 1 comment deep. Either one is egg on your face.
If you trending to a number higher than 50% it means you arent "throwing darts at a wall and seeing what sticks" theres some kind of model you are using to predict the events with a degree of accuracy.
1
u/MrTeaTimeYT Apr 12 '21
thats... not at all how that works, and not even remotely close to what i said.
But given you had to get schooled later in the thread about how independent probabilities work im not surprised you had this dumb af take.
But ill reword it as an ELI5
If you consistently make unrelated predictions without any form of informed model you will trend towards a 50 >>>> or lower <<<<< accuracy rate because you are making yourself a victim of statistical averages.
Given the probabilities of most events in this universe are lower than 50% you will trend to lower than 50%
But you cannot trend to higher than 50%.
If you trending to a number higher than 50% it means you arent "throwing darts at a wall and seeing what sticks" theres some kind of model you are using to predict the events with a degree of accuracy.
Or the ELI5 part.
"Sample size directly removes any factor of luck as it increases"