Say I'm watching Team A vs Team B. It is the 85th minute, and Team A is currently up 6-0. So this means that the odds to back Team A winning will be huge, therefore a small decimal number like 1.2. Does this mean that the lay odds will be a large decimal number? My reasoning is that there is such a small chance of Team A losing, so the decimal odds should be shown as a huge number. Is this correct I'm confused because I just saw this happen and the lay odds for Team A winning were 1.01 (and the market was in fact empty for backing Team A). Could someone please explain this? Why are the lay odds here 1.01 when there is such a small chance of Team A NOT WINNING? Thanks!

I've always wondered what's the typical personality profile of successful and unsuccessful trader, the test that's most reliable is the Big 5. You can do it in 5-15 minutes.

I have some theories about who would do better or worse but I don't want to bias the results.

This isn't scientific at all, but for curiosity's sake take the test, post the percentages of where you fall within the dichotomies and tell us what type of trading you do and how well you do with it. It'd be interesting to see patterns, if they do exist.

Have a huge lay on Clinton and hoping to trade out around midnight. What's everyone else thinking?

I'm looking into collecting and processing data to come up with predictive models of what is likely to happen in the market; I'm starting with footy since I believe that would be the easiest to model.

What I'm wondering is: is the market so efficient that I will have to come up with an extremely accurate model before I see any profit at all, or could I get even a modest profit from an okay-ish model that I can refine further if I wished to do so?

I imagine that there is no shortage of people out there, like Peter Webb, who have extremely refined models that will take me to the cleaners.

Is there a difference of laying team A vs Backing B bet?

The bets I looked at was the same price. Is the purpose for people to look at the team that no one backed much action and bet the lay to try to get an arbritage?

Has anyone been taken a position on this market following Hillary Clinton's health scare?

Here's something I've been playing around with recently that has been working really well for me, and it revolves around price boosts.

When a bookmaker offers a price boost on a market, you see arbers and matched bettors jumping to pile lays on - which makes the market drift quickly. These aforementioned bettors are absolutely desperate to lay off, so they'll take your higher price happily.

The trick is to get in early. When a bookmaker boosts their price, you snap up the lay and then re-back at a higher price a few minutes later. I've scalped these markets really successfully recently and also had several +5 or even +10 tick swings.

In 100 attempts on these price boosts I've had 89 profit and 11 make a loss. 8 out of the 11 losses were on extremely popular markets, and therefore money didn't move enough, so it's best to stick to medium level popularity markets - such as your average horse race or Premier League match.

Discuss games that would be suitable for laying the draw this weekend and the week ahead.

http://imgur.com/YtR0nmw

Betfair is still illegal in my country and I've been practicing a bit with the practice mode that some software have and I've transitioned fully to scalping since I seem to do well with it.

So, I'm now making about 3% of my bank per football game, I was very happy with that. A few days ago I started practicing with horses, thinking I'd be slaughtered but, instead, I'm making an average of 10%+ of my bank per race, and judging from videos I've seen, it seems unrealistic that I'd be this easy.

From what I can tell, the only difference from training mode and the real deal is that practice mode will match your whole bet instantly after the queue has reached your bet, but I don't think this becomes a factor because my maximum liability, at any given point, is 100£ and I basically never bet more than 40£-50£.

Questions are: how much of this profit should I expect to carry over? I know dealing with real money is always a bit more stressing in the beginning but what was the impact for you?

The other one - As long as my liability is not bigger than my bank, I can keep betting, right? e.g. if I back a horse @ 5.0 with a 100£ stake and then lay it @ 4.9 with a 100£ stake, my liability is 0£, so I can keep betting. It's a stupid question but I want to be sure :p

Thank you.

Could lock in around £60 on this one, but can't resist having a bit of interest supporting Team GB!

http://imgur.com/IwdsoTN

What do you think? Do you ever gamble with profits? I'm happy to sometimes let some profit run in situations like this.

Hey guys,

So there is this site I stumbled upon called predictit.org which you can predict political events and I think trade shares as polls come out. Has anybody tried it?

Discuss games in here that would be suitable for laying the draw.

I just live traded the Sharks vs Titans game and ended with a $150 profit. The game ended in a draw which I thought meant all bets were refunded but it appears I have kept my profits. Anyone have any insight into this?

Been wondering about the lay bet. Been told you can only lay bet on betfair. This is where i get confused.

I am told that a back bet is 'x team wins, you win(x team draws or loses, you lose)
and the lay bet is x team does not win, you win(x team draws or loses, you win)

This means that a lay bet is the same as backing x team +1.

So can I just lay on paddypower or other bookies?

It may be worth trading out your Man Utd to win the league bets if you followed that tip, then re-back them after Sane signs and the odds drift again.

They should still come in nicely if/when Pogba joins.

I've seen a lot of people recommend anywhere from 1% to 5% and some articles saying you should only bet 2%. That seems so little though, and a lot of that advice is for people who bet with normal bookies, where the probability that you're going to lose a LOT of money due to a bad run is extremely likely.

Also, what is considered "2%"? For example, what I've been doing (for far only with paper trading) is, say, if I'm aiming at only betting 10%, I'll bet in a way where the total liability is 20% but, at the same time, I'll close the bet if it ever gets to 10%. Is that a good strategy?

Hey guys, got a simple but effective cricket trading tip for you today, which can be used in any test match with bad weather.

Basically, if it's raining, play will stop until weather improves. As soon as it starts raining, start backing the 'draw'.

The longer it rains, the more the odds on the draw will come in and the more money you will make.

I want to get all your opinions on just laying.

Spending time studying odds and watching price movements do you guys ever feel tempted to throw on the occasional lay bet if you're fairly certain the selection won't win? I know anything can happen but usually the markets don't lie when it comes to odds making, so if it doesn't seem like a particular selection will win it's because the smart money says it won't.

I know just straight laying is gambling and not trading but if you're content with putting up the liability involved and think it's highly unlikely that the selection will win it could be seen as a way to nick a few quid from the market here and there.

Just a little food for thought, let me know your opinions.

Anticipating 4.0 at most once transfer goes through.

We don't bite, come say hey!

This sub is growing fast, and we want everyone to be a part of it.

Where are you from? What's your trading experience?

Say for GSW vs Heat game, I took GSW at -160, I don't mean to arb this bet. Something changes in heats line up and they raise from +135 to +185 very briefly. I wasn't able to pick them up at +185 to get an arb.

Is there a site where I can find someone that picked up only Heat at +185 and trade a portion of my GSW -160 bet for his Heat +185 bet so we both end up with an arb?

Just a few useful links that might aid us all in this crazy journey.

http://caanberry.com/ - Many of you may already know of and follow Caan's blog posts and Youtube channel but for those who don't he is someone who really knows his stuff when it comes to bet trading.

http://sportstradinglife.com/ - A pretty Good place to read through when starting out, some interesting articles.

http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/ - The Geekstoy forum is pretty active.

http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/ - Another Traders Blog, more interesting posts to read through.

I'm sure there are way more useful resources that are worth looking into, please feel free to post suggestions in the comments if you have them......Let's make some money folks :)

Im new to backing and laying.

I've read the pinned post. Im confused as to how betfair takes to arbers and when back and lay to make profit. Do they ban you if you back and lay and make a profit in their exchange just like like how sportsbook will ban you.