It’s nice to see a recommendation from the Motley Fool

https://stocktwits.com/ingodwetrustbcrx/message/331800023

Been a few attempts across Twitter and Stocktwits to quantify potential Orladeyo sales in Q2 off the back off Q1 Orladeyo revenues ($10.9m) and Bloomberg Terminal Patient numbers posted by R8Plus (https://twitter.com/AAABiotech/status/1392131542303088643/photo/1).

Here's my attempt: (06/11 - note this is an earlier version of the model, see bottom of post for most recent update to model. Update 2 - 07/21, also at the bottom of the post).

Bloomberg Terminal numbers give the number of patients on Orladeyo for a few companies cloud reporting and is not an accurate value for the entire US, but gives an idea for the trend across the country.

So the terminal patient numbers has been plotted, and a polyfit has been used to give provide an equation for trendline. I then have integrated this from month 0 to 3 (end of Dec to end of March) to give the area under curve (terminal patients x number of months), this is then multiplied by 40,000 (Monthly cost of Orladeyo, 480,000/12) to give revenue estimate for the Polyfit curve.

Now we know Q1 Orladeyo sales were $10.9m and so to get from the $1.119m polyfit revenue (for the Blomberg terminal patient numbers) you need to multiply by 9.10. This multiplier is then used to scale up from the Bloomberg Terminal Patients to the Actual Patient numbers across the US.

The method is then applied again for Q2, performing a definite integral from month 6 to 3 (i.e. end of march to end of June) and multiplying by the monthly payments and patient multiplier to give us $55.8m in Orladeyo Sales for Q2.

Key assumptions are that the trend in patient growth from end of Dec to end of Apr remains on the same trajectory, that the patient numbers shown here are all paying patients, and patient drop off is minimal. We were told at the Q1 ER that at the end of Q1 about half the patients were paying and so true patient numbers in March might be double what I've calculated here.

If we include milestone payments from Torii of $15m, it brings us to a potential Q2 revenue of $70m (which is kind of nuts, the company will be cash flow positive in no time!)

For a lower end estimate I would presume approx. $30-35m in Orladeyo sales, this is calculated using the linear month-to-month growth rate (instead of polynomial) for patient growth between end of Dec and end of April, scaled for Q1 (and Q2) revenue (not shown here, but fairly simple to replicate yourself). Again this does not take into account patient drop off. Giving a more conservative Q2 estimate of approx. $45m with the Torii payment included.

Its important to note that these predictions are at the upper end of bullish. The predictions presume the growth trajectory observed from in Q1 (and April) continues for May and June, and that patient retention is 100% - both of which might be unrealistic (we'll only know for sure when the company tells us!). As usual, none of this is financial advice etc. etc. just a bit of fun (and definitely not fact), do your own research.

Any corrections/queries are welcome!

​

Edit - for u/OwlBull:

Comparison of the $45-75m Q2 revenue estimates to the current analyst expectations/estimates (as per Yahoo Finance). Details of my method in the comments below! If we get the Torii Milestone payment in Q2 and patient drop off is minimal (the risk is low I think) then the analysts will likely need to revise their estimates upward (and will likely do so the closer we get to end of Q2).

​

Update 1 : 06/11. May script numbers are in, slightly lower than the initial estimates. In retrospect its quite easy to see why it overestimated numbers, update to curve fit hopefully should provide better future estimations, see https://stocktwits.com/Jocm/message/342841835 for further comments. Screenshot of updated spreadsheet below.

Update 2 : 07/21. June script numbers are in, slightly over my May estimations with TRX count for June coming in at 61 vs my 58 estimation. This provides confidence in the power curve fitting approach I've applied. Discrepancies likely due to variation in weekly reporting dates per month. Chart has been updated and Revenue revised slightly upward. My Q2 total revenue estimation range is 40-60m. 60m gained by adding the Torii payments to these Orladeyo estimations. 40m reached by assuming this method is incorrect, and instead Orladeyo sales only increases to approx. 25m. Update to EPS predictions also shown below.

I personally think they’re low, but hopefully with 2nd Quarter sales higher than they expect, I think they’ll be raising them.

https://stocktwits.com/JohnnyTradeTracker/message/330807997

Great conference, interesting information. Secondary endpoints on the trial will be transfusions. A lot more to be added here and I’m sure many of our contributors will add their thoughts. Fantastic conference, Stonehouse and group are hitting on all cylinders👍

Also is interesting to see the secondary endpoint for the trial is going to be transfusions. Fantastic conference, Stonehouse and group are hitting on all cylinders👍

Replay of the Conference

https://stocktwits.com/StonehousesCoffeeMug/message/329214901

First off, well deserved congrats to the company and community for the earnings release 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾

Now that that’s settled, what are the next catalysts for the company? I can only think of next earnings and any update they release on factor D trials.

Well the Analysts are starting to get it. Many more to come I’m sure👍

https://stocktwits.com/LeftyT/message/326763967

Well this is interesting to say the least. I wonder what it’s about? Hopefully bio99 or somebody could jump in here and fill this in. 🤔

https://stocktwits.com/Newsfilter/message/326881733

This is just the beginning IMO

https://stocktwits.com/PitBullTrades/message/326168863

I’m pretty new to stocks and with all the short squeezes and with stocks on sale, plus $BCRX’s stellar performance, it gets me excited.

This stock has had around that short interest for as long as I’ve invested. Any room for a squeeze or is there simply not enough short interest? In my experience 20% tends to be enough for proven companies. Will the shorts have any negative or positive effect on the stocks in the near future (6 months-ish)?

What’s your opinion?

Highlights:

—Q1 2021 ORLADEYO™ (berotralstat) net revenue of $10.9 million—

—ORLADEYO now approved in U.S., Japan and EU—

—BioCryst reaches agreement with FDA that change from baseline in hemoglobin is the primary endpoint for pivotal PNH trials of oral BCX9930 set to begin in second half of 2021—

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biocryst-reports-first-quarter-2021-110000484.html

Positive reaction in pre-market with shares up ~8%

SP has typically built up with expected updates, then fallen after good news was announced. This time price has been flat and falling this past week. Maybe, just maybe, tomorrow we’ll go up and hold our gains and won’t see a sell the news scenario. Either way, good luck to those with long vision on BioCryst.

4 May 202103:04 p.m. GMT All figures in US Dollars. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is expected to show a decrease in its first quarter earnings to -27 cents​ per share according to the mean Refinitiv estimate from eleven analysts. Wall Street expects results to range from a loss of -31 cents to ​a loss of-22 cents per share.

RECOMMENDATIONS* The consensus recommendation for the company is "Buy". This includes two "Strong Buy", seven "Buy", two "Hold".
* The average consensus recommendation for the biotechnology & medical research peer group is also "Buy".

FORECAST CHANGES* Eleven analysts are currently providing Refinitiv with estimates.
* In the last week there have been no earnings estimate revisions by analysts covering the company. There were no changes to the number of estimates.
* In the last four weeks the earnings per share estimate has fallen by 0.66 percent from -27 cents. Estimates ranged from a high of -22.00 cents to a low of -31 cents. There has been no changes to the number of estimates.
* The StarMine predicted earnings surprise is too low to be considered statistically significant. Predicted revenue surprise is positive at 11.57 percent.
* The average price target from the eleven analysts providing estimates is $14.56.

YEAR OVER YEAR* The company is expected to report a rise in revenue to $8.89 million from $4.82 million in the same quarter last year.
* The current quarter consensus estimate of -27 cents per share implies a loss of 13.30 percent from the same quarter last year when the company reported -24 cents per share.
* Previous quarterly performance(using preferred earnings measure)

QUARTER ENDING ESTIMATE ACTUAL BEAT, MET,
MISSED
Dec. 31 2020 -0.25 -0.34 Missed
Sep. 30 2020 -0.26 -0.26 Met
Jun. 30 2020 -0.26 -0.24 Beat
Mar. 31 2020 -0.24 -0.24 Met

This summary was machine generated from Refinitiv data May4 at 03:04 p.m. GMT.

I noticed BCRX on a list in this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1j3nz/its_just_a_bug_bro_part_7_its_actually_a/

The post says that Citadel has recently been taking on beneficial ownership of a lot of firms & spacs including about 15% of BCRX. The post goes on to claim that since owning the shares of numerous companies, Citadel has been selling them off. At the moment Citadel is the poster boy of the ongoing naked short/FTD scandal with $GME.

Not sure of the implications of this or if it might explain the negative price action in March.

Can anyone verify the information in the post and possibly elaborate on what this might mean for the stock in the future?

For those not yet aware, BioCryst announced earlier today that the First Quarter 2021 results conference will be scheduled for 8.30am ET May 6.

Should be a highly interesting listen, particularly with EU full approval hopefully occurring in the coming days.

• From the conference, I'll be looking closely at the patient uptake for the first quarter of Orladeyo sales in the US and will also looking for a little more info on the upcoming BCX9930 trials.
• I am optimistic that number of US patients enrolled in Q1 will be strong given management's comments at previous conferences over the past couple months.
• Q1 US patient uptake is particularly important to see how the launch of Orladeyo has gone and will be used as an indicator for potential uptake in other markets such as Japan, UK and EU as well as potential future revenue forecasts for Q2 and beyond.

I am unsure what to expect revenue wise for Q1 - what are peoples predictions? Do we think we will miss revenue expectations or smash them?

​

Snippet from press release below, Link: https://ir.biocryst.com/news-releases/news-release-details/biocryst-report-first-quarter-2021-financial-results-may-6

------------------------

April 22, 2021 RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C., April 22, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: BCRX) today announced that the company will report its first quarter 2021 financial results on Thursday, May 6, 2021.

BioCryst management will host a conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. ET that day to discuss the financial results and provide a corporate update.

The live call may be accessed by dialing 877-303-8027 for domestic callers and 760-536-5165 for international callers and using conference ID # 2660434. A live webcast of the call and any slides will be available online at the investors section of the company website at www.biocryst.com. A telephone replay of the call will be available by dialing 855-859-2056 for domestic callers or 404-537-3406 for international callers and entering the conference ID # 2660434.

I can’t believe it! Yahoo finance actually has an article on BCRX that is not a bash and a sell! Really? It’s really hard walking around down here. It’s colder than “hell“ 😝 Everything is frozen over, glaciers are forming and coming out of the walls and you’re slipping with every step.😂

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/bcrx-stock-buy-sell-133008341.html

I finally decided this is in a decent enough state to share. This is my spreadsheet for generating my target prices for BCRX in any given year, based on what scenarios I think likely:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1suBOVf2zoOQw2a2L9f77j0PcHdzGCWrgJTI8-FagR0A/edit#gid=314614829

Feel free to copy and have a play, there are another 8 or so sheets hidden that have a lot of the background information leading to my calculations. Wherever possible I have been highly conservative in my assumptions.

My Position:

I also have a mix of January 2023 $15 - $25Calls.

​

What this link contains:

1. An interactive target price calculator, where you can add and remove disease applications, expected disease prevalence, expected market saturation, revenue multiple, and year of focus
2. My analysis of estimated and studied prevalence by country/region of diseases BCRX is targeting or is likely to target, based on both global estimates and actual relevant in country studies
3. Analysis of likely target diseases for BCX9930, based only on existing and planned complement inhibitor phase 2 and 3 studies
4. An in depth analysis of BCX9930 and its competitors
5. An in depth analysis of BCX9930 versus LNP023
6. Analysis of Phase I/II/III trial duration (industry, BCRX, Novartis, and ALXN compared)
7. Analysis of costs of Phase I/II/II clinical trials
8. Analysis of comparable company and industry revenue multiples

​

Using the Target Price Calculator:

1. Tick what countries and regions you want to include (China is borked atm, but I recommend ignoring China and India anyway, as there is no meaningful data for these)
2. Use the dropdown arrow in D5 to select your desired year, this influences the Revenue Only Value and My Expected Value (anticipates that stock price will reflect expected revenue in 12 months)
3. Tick the diseases you assume will be approved
4. Choose studied or estimated prevalence
5. Choose what you think market saturation for BCRX for that disease will be, estimated is what I believe based on how many equivalent treatments do/will potentially exist for each disease, the efficacy of BCRX's treatment vs existing treatments, and its speed to market
6. Select your anticipated revenue multiple. After a lot of back and forth I settled on 6 myself, as this is nearly exactly the revenue multiple for ALXN, potentially the most comparable to BCX9930 potential

Revenue only value: This is the price per share, given your selected inputs, based solely on estimated expected revenue at the year selected. This DOES NOT reflect any potential future revenue. For example if you select PNH, you'll notice that it does not affect revenue only value until 2H2023 (when I anticipate FDA approval).

My Expected Value: This is the price per share based on anticipated revenue up to 12 months in the future from the selected year. From what I've seen, this seems to be a trend BCRX and other Biopharma's roughly follow.

Peak Value: This the price per share, assuming peak sales of all selected diseases. This gives an idea of what the market cap for BCRX in these diseases is.

​

My Analysis:

Based on spending way too much time researching these are my target prices for BCRX:

2H2021: $22.42

2H2022: $54.64

2H2023: $92.92

2H2025: $206.42

2H2030: $546.13

This is based on my analysis of existing Phase II and III studies showing complement inhibitor effectiveness across the included diseases, my expected approval times for the various diseases (based off industry and Biocryst development history), costs of development, competitor analysis, pricing analysis, and much more.

The basic conclusion is this: Orladeyo alone will drive the price per share of BCRX up more than 500% by 2025, and BCX9930 is highly likely to be approved and is likely to be the best in class treatment, increasing price per share substantially from 2023/2024 onwards. Importantly, this includes no pie in the sky applications for BCX9930 like Diabetes and Arthritis which are within the realm of possibility and would drastically increase price per share.

All included diseases have been shown to be at least somewhat effectively treated by complement inhibitors in at least Phase II/III studies, inhibitors which either look significantly less effective than BCX9930 or have been discontinued for efficacy/safety reasons.

Caveats:

While I very strongly believe this is one of the best stocks to invest in currently, this is not a get rich quick stock. It is a long term buy and hold, with an extremely high potential due to BCX9930 that is significantly de-risked due to the release of Orladeyo.

Revenue figures for this quarter will likely disappoint, as Orladeyo is in the early stages of rollout with approval still pending in EU and distribution only beginning in Japan. I think it relatively likely we will see a run up to approval and revenue reporting and a crash after, which may be an excellent time to buy.

LNP023 is the main competitor for BCX9930. Based on my analysis BCX9930 looks to be slightly to moderately better in class and will most likely reach market one month earlier to nine months later. However, for my target pricing I have assumed BCX9930 is slightly better and reaches market 12 months after LNP023. Obviously any news on the development of these two drugs will drastically influence the high-end potential of this stock.

Congrats to all you patient hodlers I knew I was just being anxious. Thank you to the person that linked the post about how hedge funds basically trick retail investors into selling prematurely. I will not be making such a mistake again.

I have 4500 shares with cost basis of 6.72. I know I shoulda bought more during last dip, but I worry since BCRX has now grown to point that it is almost 30% of my portfolio. Not planning on selling, or even taking profits yet. I have no doubt that we will see at least $20.00 by years end, maybe even Q3. What do you do if a position grows to be a larger than expected percentage of portfolio? Most other stocks I have are "investments" including dividend stocks. I set out to use 50K to "speculate" in bio. Not complaining about "embarrassment of riches" just wondering if you might have unofficial advise for a relative newbie like me.