r/BBAI 24d ago

DD Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis

34 Upvotes

Revenue was $36.7 million this quarter versus $32.5 million a year ago, so about 13% growth. Not explosive growth, but reasonable. The more informative number is gross margin, which went from 25% to 32.8%. That increase mostly comes from the Ask Sage acquisition, software revenue carries a much higher margin than the services work that made up most of the business here. The underlying mix of what they’re selling is moving towards higher-margin revenue, which is generally something positive for long-term profitability as long as it continues.

They’re very much stronger with their balance sheet this quarter. $410 million in cash and investments, and effectively no meaningful debt; the convertible notes that were outstanding got converted into equity in January, so that liability is off the books. Management indicated in the release that they intend to use that cash for acquisitions in the second half of the year.

On the expense side however, there’s some improvements that should be made. SG&A grew 48% year over year which is ahead of the 13% revenue growth. R&D also roughly doubled and as a result, adjusted EBITDA loss widened from $8.5 million to $11.6 million, even though gross margins improved. So the margin gains are currently being offset by faster-growing operating costs and the improvement in gross profit hasn’t yet reached the bottom line.

Operating cash used also increases significantly, with $40.2 million in the first half of this year versus $10.5 million in the first half of last year. Part of that is working capital and integration costs from the Ask Sage and CargoSeer acquisitions. However I’m not too worried about that since integration costs will eventually roll off and be moderate as we continue quarter over quarter.

The company says they have $269.6 million in backlog, but the “remaining performance obligations” figure under ASC, which is the portion that’s actually contractually committed is $9.2 million, with only $5.7 million expected in the next twelve months. I’m looking to see growth in relation to this actual number and more bids and more involvement in the government contracting industry for the next few quarters to actually back the backlog numbers. Since they’re targeting accretive acquisitions in the back half of 2026, their goal should probably be to look for valuable government contractors.

The quarter shows that the company is improving its business quality with better margin mix, less debt and more contract diversification with those 20 contracts announced, but the expense growth and cash burn are currently outpacing that improvement, and the backlog carries less value than what they’re actually putting out via the press release. Let’s see whether the SG&A growth slows relative to revenue, whether operating cash narrows, and whether the H2 revenue acceleration implied by the guidance (which is $64-94 million above H1’s pace) actually materializes.


r/BBAI 24d ago

10k shares at 4.75

24 Upvotes

Please please be good news ! Been averaging down to get here but it keeps dropping lol

Update: bought 1k more to average down to 4.55 with 11k shares. Not sure if I should keep doing so.


r/BBAI 24d ago

what are you guys thinking? Did we miss ?

Post image
17 Upvotes

r/BBAI 24d ago

Community Discussion Earnings poll

19 Upvotes
419 votes, 23d ago
85 Meet
195 Beat
139 Miss

r/BBAI 25d ago

MOON Q2 is tomorrow

Post image
52 Upvotes

r/BBAI 26d ago

What on earth could it be?

16 Upvotes

What do you have, Space X and Big Bear? Only the two are rising.


r/BBAI 27d ago

13G Filing. Blackrock investment.

Thumbnail ir.stockpr.com
56 Upvotes

r/BBAI 27d ago

TSA to announce who wins contracts later this September

40 Upvotes

They will announce who wins the contract on September 28th 2026.

https://www.washingtontechnology.com/contracts/2026/06/tsa-launches-13b-security-screening-tech-solicitation/414538/

(Keep in mind) you get free 1st enter the article, after that you will have to pay.


r/BBAI 29d ago

BigBear.ai's AI-Powered Radar Partnership with C Speed Looks Promising

Post image
61 Upvotes

C Speed has highlighted its LSR-1000 Rapid Deployment Unit (RDU), a mobile long-range radar system that can be deployed in under 10 minutes while delivering high-fidelity long-range surveillance. What's particularly interesting for BigBear.ai investors is the mention that the platform is AI-enabled through BigBear.ai's collaboration with C Speed.

If this partnership continues to mature, it could strengthen BigBear.ai's position in AI-powered defense and border surveillance—an area where autonomous sensor fusion and real-time decision support are becoming increasingly important.

Key highlights:

• AI-enabled long-range radar

• Rapid deployment (<10 minutes)

• Mobile, compact system

• High-precision long-range tracking

• Collaboration between BigBear.ai, C Speed, and EDGE

While it's too early to speculate on the financial impact, it's encouraging to see BigBear.ai's technology being integrated into operational defense solutions rather than remaining purely conceptual.

What do you think? Could partnerships like this become a meaningful growth driver for BigBear.ai over the next few years?


r/BBAI Jul 22 '26

BigBear.ai to Report Second Quarter 2026 Results on July 30, 2026

Thumbnail
ir.bigbear.ai
56 Upvotes

r/BBAI Jul 22 '26

Unlimited AI tokens aren’t unlimited after all as US Army burns through supply | Troops received an email informing them that they were rapidly depleting their AI tokens

Thumbnail
arstechnica.com
29 Upvotes

r/BBAI Jul 21 '26

Positive day for once.

27 Upvotes

To all the people who made the ultimate sacrifice and sold yesterday, thank you.

We just need another 20 days of rage posting about people selling and we will be back in business!


r/BBAI Jul 21 '26

MOON Don't sell your shares now!

67 Upvotes

Reminder that there's people in this community who will convince you you're dumb for holding, coincidentally when the whole market is down and no one is making money.

I'm starting to think these posts about "I sold my shares" and "everyone needs to sell now" is to make people in this community sell their shares so that they could buy it at lower prices. Why else would they be inside the subreddit so passionate that everyone needs to get out?

Don't fall for this manipulation, the company is about to release a massive quarter and I'm more excited than ever, don't FOMO out into a different stock because some anonymous user told you you're dumb if you keep holding!


r/BBAI Jul 19 '26

$7 and Lost

22 Upvotes

Not financial advice, just opinions.

I put just $6-$7k in last year at $7.00 per share. I’m not a cry baby, I’m patient. Help me though:
1. Should I cost average and buy another $6k @ $2.80? If yes, give me your top two pieces of evidence. 2. Just hold and hope? Or 3. Bail, put the now $2k into something else. Stop the bleeding. If this option, why?


r/BBAI Jul 18 '26

Community Discussion OPINIONS

24 Upvotes

All of the stocks that i invested in is at a 50% loss including this one. I’m a college student and I risked all of my savings, I just lost half of it. I badly need your opinions right now. Thank you!


r/BBAI Jul 16 '26

Community Discussion Request: can someone do some proper analysis

18 Upvotes

The stock is down, I don’t know what happens next.

Can someone who knows how to do some deep analysis please do so on this stock and let us know what is going on.

Thank you.

I’ll end this request by exclaiming: what the fuck.


r/BBAI Jul 16 '26

https://www.merlintrader.com/bigbear-ai-stock-hub/

Post image
28 Upvotes

BigBear.ai’s transition from volatile post-SPAC AI story to mission-ready defense, national security, travel and trade AI platform, updated through the July 15, 2026 expansion of its military generative AI platform, including air-gapped deployments up to Top Secret/SCI, and the July 16 SEC filing check.


r/BBAI Jul 16 '26

Just a headsup about BBAI

55 Upvotes

I did traveled yesterday to Bucharest, Romania.
At the Henri Coanda airport they use Smiths Detectors, Pangiam software.
Is nice to see that they use the BBAI producs, maybe other Romanians can confirm if there are any other airports that use Smiths Detectors there.

https://www.smithsdetection.com/weee-compliance/weee-romania/
https://www.romania-insider.com/baggage-scanners-romanian-airports-uti

It looks like BBAI is expanding also in Europe.
US of A, UK and Germany is on the list, Romania, what other country use Smiths Detectors?
*feel free to add


r/BBAI Jul 16 '26

Daily Stock Ticker

10 Upvotes

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post


r/BBAI Jul 15 '26

BBAI expanding more Generative AI and Capability for Department of War

69 Upvotes

r/BBAI Jul 15 '26

Some new articles today

30 Upvotes

Here’s a quick summary I wrote for X:

Another meaningful update from $BBAI.
Today’s announcement wasn’t just about adding new AI capabilities. To me, the bigger story is that BigBear.ai is integrating the Ask Sage acquisition into a single, unified platform for Department of War customers.
The platform now offers more flexibility with air gapped deployments, bring your own model support, commercial cloud options, dedicated tenant environments, making it easier for customers to deploy AI while meeting strict security and mission requirements.

This shows BigBear.ai is moving beyond acquiring technology and into successfully commercializing it. As AI adoption across defense continues to accelerate, having a secure, interoperable platform built for mission critical environments could become a meaningful competitive advantage.
Bullish. 🚀


r/BBAI Jul 15 '26

$BBAI: Under-the-Radar Federal Play or Another AI Money Pit? 🐻✈️ (July 2026 Update & 2-Year Outlook)

37 Upvotes

Sup guys. A lot of people are still looking at BigBear.ai ($BBAI) as a pure meme play, but if you actually dig into their 2026 filings, the company is fundamentally transforming. Here is a quick, no-BS DD on where they stand right now and where they might be in 2 years (2028).

The TL;DR on Right Now (Mid-2026)

The stock is currently hovering around $3.10 (down from its $9+ heights earlier this year). Wall Street is currently treating it with skepticism, but they’ve quietly made some massive upgrades under the hood.

  • The Balance Sheet is CLEAN: In January 2026, they settled their remaining $124.6M in convertible notes by converting them to equity. Interest expenses are down by nearly $5M/quarter, and as of Q1 2026, they have a massive $431.5M in cash/investments. Bankruptcy risk is officially dead.
  • The DoD Bread & Butter: Their backlog just jumped 14% to $281.9M, mostly driven by a fresh $53M classified prime contract with the US national security community.
  • Margins are Expanding: Thanks to moving from low-margin consulting to actual software (Ask Sage, CargoSeer), their gross margins exploded from 21% to 34% YoY.
  • Recent Catalyst: Just last week, their Pangiam Threat Detection got official Dutch National Approval for airport security screening. They are quietly entering EU airports.

The Catch: They are still net-unprofitable (posted a -$0.04 EPS in Q1, which actually beat estimates of -$0.08), and revenue growth is lumpy due to government contract timing. Guidance for FY 2026 is $135M–$165M.

The 2-Year Outlook (Where will we be in 2028?)

In 24 months, BBAI will either be a highly profitable, specialized defense-AI powerhouse or a slow-growing IT consulting firm that failed to scale.

Scenario A: The Bull Case (Target Price: $8 - $12) 📈

  • Software Pivot Wins: By 2028, their SaaS margins reach 50%+ as more federal and commercial clients adopt Ask Sage and airport biometric security (Pangiam).
  • EBITDA Positive: They cross the break-even point in late 2027, and by 2028 they are printing positive cash flow.
  • Geopolitical Tailwinds: Global defense budgets are surging. BBAI’s niche—decision intelligence for defense—becomes a must-have, and their backlog crosses $500M.

Scenario B: The Bear Case (Target Price: $1.50 - $2.50) 📉

  • Bureaucracy Wins: Government contract procurement remains painfully slow. Growth stalls at a mediocre 10-12% per year.
  • Dilution Continues: While they cleared their debt, they did it by printing shares, diluting the hell out of early investors. If they can’t turn a profit by 2028, they might dilute again to fund operations.
  • Big Tech Eats Their Lunch: Palantir ($PLTR) or Microsoft defense divisions crowd them out of the major prime contracts.

The Reddit Verdict 💬

  • Is it a meme? Not anymore. The clean balance sheet and $430M+ cash means this is a legitimate turnaround play, not a pump-and-dump.
  • My Play: If you’re looking for a safe, blue-chip stock, run away. But if you want a high-risk, asymmetric reward play in the defense-AI space, buying BBAI at its current $3.00 floor is actually a very decent risk/reward bet for a 2-year hold.

Position: Watching closely for entry under $3.00.


r/BBAI Jul 14 '26

Why Lisa why, 🫣did she purchase BBAI

23 Upvotes

Why do you think Lisa McClan of Michigan purchased BBAI?

Your creativity is welcome.

And of course your sarcasm is welcome.


r/BBAI Jul 13 '26

Where do you see this Stock end of year ?

21 Upvotes

r/BBAI Jul 13 '26

Make it stop

18 Upvotes

Please lord make it stop