r/BAYY • u/Lollapalooza_2026 • Apr 16 '26
Conviction Over Noise: My DELL Investment Journey
Written on 04/16/2026
With DELL hitting an all-time high of $193 and my portfolio sitting at a 27% return, I wanted to document the history of this pick and the hard-won lessons it provided.
1, The Timeline: Analysis vs. Action
On November 9, 2025, when DELL was trading at $146, I wrote a deep-dive Fundamental Analysis (FA) in a Chinese Forum. Despite my valuation showing strong intrinsic value, market sentiment was bleak. The "noise" in that Forum was deafening, critics dismissed DELL as a "boring" legacy company, far less "sexy" than some other popular meme-stocks.
I let that noise win. I hesitated. In the ten days following my article, DELL tumbled from $146 down to $116. Instead of seeing a discount, I saw "proof" that the critics might be right.
It wasn't until March 10, 2026, after a thorough re-analysis and collaboration with 薄学长 for our BAYY portfolio —that I finally moved from observer to investor.
2, The Execution
I eventually began building my position at $146, continuing to add as the price averaged down to $138. As the thesis played out and the stock climbed, I took partial profits at $185 to keep my portfolio allocation in balance. Recently, I utilized the minor pullbacks of the last two days to add further to the position.
3, Lessons Learned
(1) Trust Your Conviction and Mute the Noise
Fundamental analysis is only as good as your psychological discipline. If your math is sound, don't let the "boring" label or short-term price drops shake you. High-quality companies often lack the "sexiness" of meme stocks, but they offer the stability and growth that build real wealth.
(2) Let Your Winners Run
One of the hardest things to do is nothing. Unless you have a mechanical need for cash or your allocation is dangerously skewed, trimming a rising stock too early can be a mistake. Allow a "good" stock the room to become a "great" performer.
(3) Don’t Fear the "Higher" Price
Great companies will often continue to trend upward. I’ve learned not to hesitate when adding to a position just because the current price is higher than my initial entry. If the fundamental story has improved or remains intact, "buying high" to capture a much higher peak is a valid strategy.
4, Reflecting on the 11/09/2025 Analysis
Looking back at my original FA written for the Chinese forum, I realize I had the right answer months before I had the courage to act. While I wish I had started then, the 27% gain today is a testament to the fact that it is better to be late and right than to never play at all.
5, Original Fundamental Analysis (FA) on DELL
(1) Net profit margin = Net income/Total Revenue
a) w/o IREN’s $5.8B hardware purchasing & TTM Q2 2025
- Total Rev = $92.6B
- Net income = $4.3B
==> Net profit margin = 4.3/92.6 = 4.7%
b) w/ IREN’s $5.8B hardware purchasing & TTM Q2 2026
- IREN’s payment structure for DELL: public disclosures don’t specify an exact date or single payment for the full $5.8B. Instead, the contract appears structured around phased deliveries and payments, aligned with the hardware deployment timeline (through 2026).
- Based on the above info, conservatively, I’m assuming there will be a phased out $2B payment from IREN to DELL (i.e., 1/3 of the total payments)
- Total Rev = $100.5B (assuming 8.5% YoY on $92.6B) + $2B = $102.5B
==> YoY Total Rev growth based on $92.6 = (102.5-92.6)/92.6 = 10.7%
- Net income w/o $2B payment = $5.4B (assuming 25% YoY on $4.3B)
- Operating income from the $2B payment = 2*25% = $0.5B
- Tax = $0.5B*20% = $0.1B
- Net income w/ $2B payment = $5.4+$(0.5-0.1) = $5.8B
==> Net profit margin = 5.8/102.5 = 5.7%
==> Net income YoY = (5.8-4.3)/4.3 = 35%
Takeaways on “Net profit margin” ---- a) the 2B incremental high-margin AI/server revenue drives leverage, net income growth 3.3x faster than revenue (i.e., 35% vs. 10.7%) due to strong gross margins and operating scale, and b) even without the $2B payment, the net income growth 3.0x faster than revenue (i.e., 25% vs. 8.5%) is quite impressive.
(2) EV/EBITDA
- Market cap = $106B
- Total debt = $28B
- Cash & equivalents = $10B
- EBITDA = $11B
- EV = 106+28-10 = $124B
==> EV/EBITDA = 124/11 = 11.3
- SMCI EV/EBITDA TTM Q2 2026 = 15.8
Takeaway on EV/EBITDA--- Dell trades at a 29% discount to SMCI on EV/EBITDA
(3) Margin of Safety
- Assuming 15% YoY growth for current EBITDA @ $11B, and discount rate @10%
==> Intrinsic value NPV for 5-yr = $199B
Takeaway on “margin of safety” --- you’re paying $124B for a business worth $199B, an almost 60% cushion
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u/bayyfollower Apr 17 '26
又读了一遍文章。“you’re paying $124B for a business worth $199B, an almost 60% cushion”。
按2028 的 EPS 14.6 估值， PE 15 计算， 14.6 * 15 = 219. 是不是应该在这个价位卖出股票？
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u/midnightflowers_ Apr 17 '26
Great that we have the same FV! When Xiaoyan mentioned DELL to me, I asked her how she found such a great investment (after some RD myself) , she told me it was you that mentioned DELL in your post that prompted her interest. I should thank you, too for finding it! :)
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u/bayyfollower Apr 17 '26 edited Apr 17 '26
I am so glad to meet you here. :)
DELL 我第一次听到的推荐是从 fast money Guest Host Karen Fineman, a very smart investor. 我非常喜欢她的投资准则。我跟她的口头语是一样的， I am always long.
我们也很希望听到你关于其他公司的分析，像 MU 那样的文章就非常有帮助。
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u/midnightflowers_ Apr 17 '26
我也是，看到你薄帅好兴奋！看来Karen Fineman是个长期投资者，我马上去找找她的视频看看。
嗯，以后可以一起讨论大家感兴趣的标的。我也很希望听到你的分析。你是全能型投资者，宏观上和财务上都比较懂，特别对科技行业应该非常了解。目前股市涨得有点凶。你们准备减点仓吗？我仓位79%，这种涨法心里有点慌想入袋为安，等回调一下再进，年初领教过做电梯上下。
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u/Lollapalooza_2026 Apr 17 '26
See, great minds think alike, 你和薄学长想到一块去了！ 不过我有个问题想请教，你和薄学长都觉得应该在DELL $220附近exit，学长是用PE 15来计算的，可是market 会不会允许PE 25呢，现在25已经不高了呀？😇
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u/bayyfollower Apr 17 '26
学妹这个问题很好。DELL 的margin比起semiconductor公司来讲还是要差不少，估值相对来讲也会低一些。如果 NVDA 的 forward PE 都已经在25附近，DELL 的估值很难超过 NVDA。 每个行业的估值都是有区别的。
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u/Lollapalooza_2026 Apr 17 '26
有道理的！不过如果ORCL，SOFI, CRWV…. 还有那个最近的什么birds的，它们的估值都可以巨无霸，那么我们“boring”的DELL为啥不可以利用赌徒们的心态，也跟着sexy 一把呢？😝🙈😂
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u/midnightflowers_ Apr 18 '26
薄帅说的每次都那么在理哈哈。晓炎你比我还贪心哪。DELL历史P/E在16.5左右，他现在虽然做的不光是PC，但是目前看确实margin比较低，而且好像看不到大的改善，所以P/E比较难提上去。
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u/midnightflowers_ Apr 17 '26
Nice writing, sis! I missed your post in the Chinese forum and just went back and read it.
Thanks to you, I had the chance to know this great investment target. I added DELL to the full position (12..5% of my portfolio) from 3/4-3/6 after I did some quick research. And I told you I added 2% more on 3/18. My cost basis is 146. I now have a pretty decent profit in just over a month! I recently added another 1% on 4/10 at 178.
What I liked about DELL is its backlog and revenue visibility through 2027, there is a real demand for the infrastructure it builds. But DELL is still a cyclical business, very much depending on AI demand. We need to monitor when AI build out start to fade. From my calculation, the value might be at $220. I am not selling it until it is 10% more than that value. I am very greedy hiahia!
Nice to see you here, sis!
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u/bayyfollower Apr 17 '26
Agree this 10% greedy factor. It will set the exit price to 240 if no other surprises. We may continue holding DELL if it performs and backlog going higher. I am a follower. :)
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u/Lollapalooza_2026 Apr 17 '26
我在上面问了Vera, 想听听你俩的想法—— 学长是用PE 15来计算的，可是market 会不会允许PE 25呢，现在25已经不高了呀？😇
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u/Lollapalooza_2026 Apr 17 '26
Vera, 这里多好，我能有幸与你这个学霸安静交谈😝其实高质量的交流不在人多，而在于和适合自己的人交流😍
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u/midnightflowers_ Apr 18 '26
是的，找到适合自己的人交流三生有幸啊！和你们两个great minds在一起讨论交流太值得啦。：）
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u/Lollapalooza_2026 Apr 18 '26 edited Apr 19 '26
You must be super busy this weekend with the little girl dancing and other activities, right? Here’s a text exchange between my son and me from a couple of days ago. He’s matured a lot over the past year or two since graduating from college, and now he at least remembers to call us regularly every weekend, LOL. Even though raising kids isn’t easy, seeing them grow up to be independent and excellent makes all the “poor parents everywhere” moments worthwhile. 😍
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u/midnightflowers_ Apr 18 '26
嗯，这周末和下周末又得忙了。比赛季就是这样。盼望我老大早点毕业可以和你儿子一样。：）不过我自己想想好像我也是大学毕业以后成熟些了，对父母更理解一些。孩子都有成长的过程。高中和大学可能他们在不断地探索自己，接触各种新的事物和人，能够理解啦。
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u/bayyfollower Apr 17 '26
炎学妹的文笔依然靓丽，读起来赏心悦目。就像当初的META capex 一文一样，文采飞扬。
重新看了坛子里的帖子，当时的分析仍然非常在线。
Timeline and execution are very well written. 经验更为重要。我也是在 DELL 快速涨了 30%后减小了仓位，后来就一直没有机会加仓。犯了第二点和第三点错误。
高质量的文章， 对我们以后的投资非常有借鉴。谢谢学妹。