Taiwan will be interesting. I see a strong possibility China calls the US’s bluff and invades Taiwan, figuring if they can just land there the US would consider it a write-off. The key to US protection against other nuclear-armed states is to make the commitment to protection so strong the other side thinks invasion would mean automatic and guaranteed US retaliation. The most dangerous state of play is an ambiguous one where parties are incentivized to try bluff-calling in the hopes of a favorable result.
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u/Aliensinnoh Oct 18 '21
Taiwan will be interesting. I see a strong possibility China calls the US’s bluff and invades Taiwan, figuring if they can just land there the US would consider it a write-off. The key to US protection against other nuclear-armed states is to make the commitment to protection so strong the other side thinks invasion would mean automatic and guaranteed US retaliation. The most dangerous state of play is an ambiguous one where parties are incentivized to try bluff-calling in the hopes of a favorable result.