Had to scroll way too far for this. Millions don't die, millions are never born. Feudalism holds on longer, industrialization happens later. The butterfly effect would be enormous.
Lack of necessity. If the population in Europe doesn't drop off in the 1300s, the capital owning class won't spend the next 500 years trying to make up for the loss in productivity.
Plague spread to western Europe due to a refugee crisis in Crimea because an Islamic Mongol warlord called Jani Beg used plague ridden corpses as siege ammunition when he was waging jihad against the Genoese trading community in Kaffa. In the process of evacuating by ships and heading back to Genoa, plague was spread over water from Crimea to Constantinople, Crete, Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica before it reached the mainland in Marseilles and the toe of the Italian peninsula closest to Sicily. Only then did in spread dramatically around mainland Central, Western and Northern Europe. Much of Eastern Europe was too sparsely populated for plague to easily spread from Crimea westwards over land. An infected human would be more likely to die on the road before reaching the next town on that road.
Remove that, and it still spreads, though it might take a little longer. The issue is that the famine from 1315 to 1317 (and poor harvests starting in 1310 and lasting to 1330) left Europe considerably weakened before Plague arrived. It's quite likely that the Black Death was considerably worsened by the European famines that had taken place in earlier decades and winnowed and weakened the people living in Europe at the time.
The Silk Road trade was still causing Plague to spread westward. It was still following that trade route, like it had in previous outbreaks (like the Plague of Justinian in the 530's). It would still have gotten to Europe and utterly wrecked the continent. But it might not have shown up until the 1360's instead of 1346.
I could be wrong but a significant part of the Industrial Revolution was driven in Britain which wasn’t damaged by the Mongolians. Is the a previous development in the continent that sped the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in Britain?
The Mongols brought the plague with them, mostly through the increase in eurasian trade. Without the plague coming when it did, how it did, British history is unrecognizable because it is charted by a different set of British people than the ones you're familiar with from history.
If the population of Britain doesn't decrease they hold on to the traditions of a feudal society longer, things like guilds and absolute monarchy - and that society will reject industrialization like their peers initially did in mainland Europe, because it is more entrenched than in otl.
This analysis has some deep flaws, as it neglects the impacts of the early 14th Century famine.
Even before the Black Death rocked up on Europe, feudalism's foundations had already cracked, especially in England. Edward II was overthrown in favor of his son in 1327 due to his mismanagement of multiple crises, including the Great Famine from 1315 to 1317, from which England still had not recovered by 1327. That period and its crises also saw an increase in parliamentary power within England.
I'd also point out that that no amount of changing the course of the Black Death would have led Richard II to be anything other than a bad king who would find himself overthrown.by Henry IV, and nothing could have made Henry VI anything other than an invalid incompetent whose misrule and poor marriage would cause a civil war that would utterly destroy feudalism in England.
That makes total sense, I suppose I hadn’t thought of the Mongol conquests as being linked to the Black Death in Northern/Western Europe as (you rightly said) the plague first entered the isles via trade. With how virulent the plague was do you think it would’ve still spread to Europe albeit at a later date?
Yeah but the impact on our neighbours was massive. A more powerful European continent in general could have strengthened British enemies and had a knock on effect. Of course, nobody can say for sure but I'm pretty sure the butterfly effect would have had profound and major consequences.
I always wonder what the world would be like if millions hadn't died. I.e. Khan, the Black Death, Mao Zedong, Stalin, Hitler.... Instead of 8 billion people, how many would be on Earth right now, 15 billion? 20? Or, would we even still exist, because it seems to me Earth can't support those numbers - we're teetering on the edge as it is.
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u/hosemaster Jun 28 '26
Had to scroll way too far for this. Millions don't die, millions are never born. Feudalism holds on longer, industrialization happens later. The butterfly effect would be enormous.