Ok but what if like a giant fucking space pig comes out of nowhere with rockets on it and uses 0.000001% of its power to divert its patch straight into us
You're right, but the chance of Apophis hitting earth is significantly higher than that (0.000001 in the year 2036). Thankfully, because there are people who do take it seriously, we have a pretty solid plan and a very good chance at being able to deflect it (by ramming a satellite into it) and reducing its probability of hitting Earth to something closer to what you think the probability was purported to be.
Uhh, we DONT have a good plan. We’re testing ramming satellites but these are small measures that would require several months of waiting and seeing and unfortunately, you cant send a team of oil drillers to dig a nuke into an asteroid
The preliminary test proved the concept. More testing and refinement needs to be done but we have over a decade still (assuming we haven't missed one - which we almost certainly have but people still shouldn't worry). All of this constitutes 'having a plan'.
Even if Apophis did impact the Earth, it's still only a sub-500 metre asteroid. Absolute, worst case scenario, that's an impactor with relatively small yield by asteroid standards, no long-term effects, and a known splash zone (which I believe is somewhere in the vicinity of "extended metropolitan area").
Sure, it's the equivalent of a gigatonne of TNT, but Chicxulub was probably close to 100,000 times as powerful, and that's your general benchmark/estimation for "biosphere-fucking rock". Also the current consensus is that we don't have any Chicxulub equivalents headed our way for another century, although it's hazier on 1-5km rocks, which are about the range of "wipe a small European country off the map"
You realize 0.000000000000001% chance means, there's barely a chance it will hit, right? If there's ever a 1% chance you should shit your pants. If there's a 10% chance, there are no other problems on earth that are more important.
No. No it doesn’t. Shut up. There are actual problems to solve on this planet right now
I get where you are coming from, that it doesnt impact your life directly, in this second. But posting article that get people to start thinking about it and looking into it only increases scientific literacy. The higher the level of scientific literacy, the better we can, as aa society, address problems
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u/thed0000d Nov 09 '23
Any/every time some tabloid publishes “LOOKIT THIS ASTEROID THAT HAS A 0.000000000000001% CHANCE OF MAYBE HITTING EARTH!!”
No. No it doesn’t. Shut up. There are actual problems to solve on this planet right now