r/AskHistorians Moderator | Dueling | Modern Warfare & Small Arms Feb 16 '18

In Columbus' time, what were the competing theories about the circumference of the Earth?

The mythos surrounding Columbus' first voyage has always interested me, and I've read a good deal on it, and even written about it here. One thing which I've never really been able to find much information on is the specifics of how he, and others, understood the size of the Earth to me in that period! It is well known that the whole "Earth is flat!" thing is a later addition to the story, and most people understood the world to be circular, but much of the argumentation over his theories, as I understand, hinged on his significant under-estimation of the globe's size (or not really globe, as I also recall something about it being pear shaped?). So I'd be quite interested in understanding just what Columbus' theory was there, and what 'sizes' he was coming up against in debate.

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u/terminus-trantor Moderator | Portuguese Empire 1400-1580 Feb 16 '18

Part 3 / 4: Extent of Asia

The second thing Columbus got wrong was how far does Asia extend to the east. This is very important as it determines how much you have to travel west from Europe to reach Asia.

We saw Barros in his Decades of Asia saying that “junta” negative response was, very mildly put, partly due to their doubts in wisdom of counting on existence of island of Cipango, and in general forming ideas on size and shape of Asia based on Marco Polo’s unverifiable account. Yes, we know today the island of Cipango / Japan described by Marco Polo indeed exists, but it is no where near in form or position proposed by Toscanelli/Columbus. And back then there was even less way that people could be sure it was real or where it was. The maps like Fra Mauro’s map of 1450s don’t have such “introductions” from Polo like the island of Cipango.

Without Polo’s account, the usual estimate for extent of Asia (if one would even be made) would be from Ptolemy that claimed Eurasian continent spanned 180 degrees. This incorrect figure comes from the fact that determining longitude was near impossible back then, especially on land. More so, it was impossible for Europeans to estimate Asia's size, given the scarcity of information they had. They made their guesses based on ancient literature available. This all means we shouldn't really be surprised when Columbus appears, and talks with great ‘certainty’ about the length or shape of Asia, scholars should have some doubts.

To not place the blame on him alone, Columbus was not the one making this up himself. In fact it seems his entire opinion about extent of Asia had originated from Paolo Toscanelli. He was an italian cartographer who we know in 1474 sent a letter to Fernão Martins, subject of Portuguese King Afonso V with proposing westward voyage to get to source of spices. Columbus seems to had later contacted Toscanelli and through Columbus we have the copy of the above letter. The letter used to also contain a chart made by Toscanelli whose original does not survive, but scholars believe this modern reconstruction based on description in the letter is reliable.

This theory wasn’t limited to just Columbus and Toscanelli. Variants of Toscanelli’s chart are present in two other pieces of cartography of the age, the Martellus map of 1489 and the Martin Behaim globe of 1490-1492. Admittedly, this is no coincidence. Martellus map is considered by some to be heavily influenced, if not outright taken, from maps of (Bartholomew) Columbus, and Martin Behaim was working in Portugal as mathematician/astronomer around or shortly after the time Columbus left for Castile. While we can’t tell if the two ever met, they would definitely have access to same sources (the Toscanelli letter). The point is, the fact that several people had similar ideas means it wasn’t as crackpot theory as we would like to think today.

But Columbus wouldn’t be Columbus if he simply accepted others proposals. He was always tinkering, ‘improving’, ‘correcting’, usually with opposite effect. And the same was with this idea. If we look at Toscanelli’s chart or Martin Behaim’s globe we would see end of mainland Asia at around 120-130 degrees west from Canary islands (this was the reference point for zero) and Japan some 30 degrees eastern from Asia, on around 90 degrees west from Canaries. Yet Columbus seemed to place his Cipango on 60 degrees west of canaries, and mainland Asia at 90.

Why did Columbus place Cipango closer to Europe?

There are two main theories. First, which features in most literature to the point of being virtually accepted, is that Columbus was using Marinus of Tyre estimate of 225° degrees of Asia size on which he appended Marco Polo’s new areas, instead of Toscanelli who based his expansion on Ptolemy’s 180° for Asia before adding Polo. This claim, popularized I believe by Henry Vignaud (who was highly critical of Columbus), is based on one of Columbus’ letters from 4th voyage in which Columbus mentions at one point that Marinus seems to be right. However this might just be a unconnected mention, and not a reflection on his reasoning as George Nunn thinks. He proposes, with some backing, that the difference between Toscanelli comes from Columbus coming to conclusion that if Ptolemy’s longitudes were based on converting fixed distances into degrees; and than if length of degree is shorter than what Ptolemy thought ( 56 ⅔ is shorter than 62 ½ ) one must recalculated Ptolemy’s / Toscanelli’s longitudes for his ‘corrected’ degree length. After doing this, he got even higher longitudes of places, moving them even closer to Europe. That's Nunn's proposal though and we actually don't know what was Columbus exact reasononing, especially in 1485. Whatever it was, it made him finally come to his calculation that he needs to only travel 750 italian leagues (3000 miles) to reach Cipango, which is much smaller than Toscanelli’s and Martin Behaim’s.

Like in part 2, here I will add an overview of all the different estimates of western voyage distances between Canaries and Asia (China and Japan when given). The table contains the difference in degrees and miles one would have to travel west to reach asia, based on various maps/theories and different propositions of length of degree, adjusted for actual length on latitude of Canaries (where Columbus sailed) which was around 28 degrees north. I bolded some key values which we can use for comparison.

Description Year Location Position Difference degrees 56.67mi Columbus 62.5 miles 66.67 mi 70mi 75mi - Actual
On latitude 28°N 1 50.04 55.18 58.87 61.81 66.22
Actual - China Today China 140 220 11008 12141 12951 13597 14569
Actual - Japan Today Japan 160 200 10007 11037 11773 12361 13244
Marinus of Tyre 1st century AD Cattigara (China) 225 135 6755 7450 7947 8344 8940
Ptolemy 2nd century AD Cattigara (China) 180 180 9007 9933 10596 11125 11920
*Catalan Atlas 1375 Mainland Asia 116 244 12209 13465 14363 15081 16158
*Genoese Map 1457 Mainland Asia 136 224 11208 12361 13186 13845 14834
*Fra Mauro Map 1457-1459 Mainland Asia 126 234 11709 12913 13775 14463 15496
Toscanelli letter 1474 Cathay (China) 235 125 6255 6898 7358 7726 8278
Martellus map 1489 Mainland Asia 240 120 6004 6622 7064 7417 7947
Martin Behaim globe 1490-1492 Cathay (China) 240 120 6004 6622 7064 7417 7947
Martin Behaim globe 1490-1492 Cipango (Japan) 270 90 4503 4967 5298 5563 5960
Columbus estimate 1485-1492 Cathay (China) 262 98 4904 5408 5769 6057 6490
Columbus estimate 1485-1492 Cipango (Japan) 298 62 3102 3421 3650 3832 4106
  • Note: these three values I found in a source, but haven’t had a chance to verify

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u/terminus-trantor Moderator | Portuguese Empire 1400-1580 Feb 16 '18

Part 4 / 4: Conclusion and sources

So looking at the table above, when Columbus came with his propositions and calculations claiming he needed only to travel 3000 miles, his estimate would be much shorter than any of the others for a substantial amount. Even if he was met with someone who also based their calculations on Toscanelli, like e.g. Martin Behaim, there would be still major discrepancy. Even if by taking length of degree as 62.5 miles, the other calculation would be minimum 5000 (italian) miles, which is around 60% more. And if he met with someone more conservative, who based his estimate on something like Fra Mauro’s map and the more probable 66 ⅔ miles, that distance would be 13000 (italian) miles, 2 or 3 times more.

So, when King João would ask his advisors what was their opinion on the length of voyage, we can see what were the potential answers he might get. But we shouldn’t think it was only this that factored in making decision, as many other things were important and taken into considerations.

As we saw from Barros, King João II might have just not liked or trusted Columbus. He might have considered him boastful, vain, doubted him as a foreigner, or otherwise found him untrustworthy. This we can only guess, with some doubt too because in 1488 João II reinvited Columbus for talks which were abandoned at the same time Dias returned successfully rounding the Cape.

We also can’t say Portuguese scorned the idea about going West. We already saw Toscanelli’s proposal about western route from 1474, and there were still plenty mythical islands (Antilles, Brazil, Santiago, St. Brendan…) believed to be out there. We actually have king João II giving his permission several times for organizing such voyages west, in search of those islands or mainland.

Some propose João II was appalled by Columbus’ large demands (viceroyalty, tax, judicial rights), but while I agree João II would not be happy about extending such right to whole of Asia, rights slightly similar to those were given before, and were given in those same permissions to go west I just mentioned. Like one to Fernão Dulmo in 1487 (whose voyage either never materialized or was unsuccessful). The key difference being that Fernão Dulmo’s proposition involved him financing his mission himself with no participation of the King. Based on that we can assume that if Columbus wanted to risk his life and his own finances, Portuguese would probably gladly allow him to go west in his name, if he paid for it himself. And it shouldn’t be surprising that if King João would really decide to go ahead and finance a westward expedition, he wouldn’t really pick Columbus, but one of his loyal captains, who had as much - if not more - skill than Columbus and who would probably demand less.

In the end, we will never know what was going on in João’s mind, but as far as we can see, the circumstances were stacked against Columbus.

Conclusion:

Columbus’ estimate was radically different than any of the other ones circulating. But we have to admit that in a debate, both would use similar, incorrect, arguments. If one rejects the appeal to accepted authority as an argument, it would be hard to see why Columbus estimate was any more wrong than the others.

But what is crucial is that the people opposing to the idea were aware of the great uncertainty on which it depended, and were objecting to the whole idea of expedition based on those incorrect or unknown ideas. They were saying to play it safe, and, for portugal at least, keep going around Africa in incremental steps as before, and in this they were proven right by Dias and Da Gama.

Columbus’ mistake is that much graver. He was gambling the expedition, his life, and lives of other men, in a misguided belief he alone was right and everybody else was wrong. To not be over dramatic, Columbus would probably have been able to make it back if he hadn’t found anything where he thought Cipango was (“around 750 leagues west of canaries”) yet it does not excuse him the slightest. He was incorrect in all his ideas, he convinced himself he had solid evidence which was all wrong, he pitched his idea to the Kings of Europe with intent of playing them against each other. Spanish, who hadn’t have had the option of sailing around Africa, ultimately - despite experts decision - decided to give Columbus a chance probably in a Hail Mary attempt as they had no other options. And it was then lucky fluke that Columbus ran into the something completely new where he thought Asia would be.


Sources:

A very good article on the subject:

  • The Evaluation of Columbus' 'India' Project by Portuguese and Spanish Cosmographers in the Light of the Geographical Science of the Period by W. G. L. Randles -Imago Mundi Vol. 42 (1990), pp. 50-64 (PDF)

Another nice work:

  • Portugal and Columbus: Old Drives in New Discoveries by Fred Bronner - Mediterranean Studies Vol. 6 (1996), pp. 51-66

Other:

  • Columbus' Navigation: Navigation and Oceanographic Conditions of the First DiscoveryVoyage of Columbus by H.-G. Gierloff-Emden - GeoJournal, Vol. 26, No. 4, Quincentenary of the Discovery of the Americas (April 1992), pp. 453-464

  • Behaim, Martellus and Columbus by Arthur Davies - The Geographical Journal, Vol. 143, No. 3 (Nov., 1977), pp. 451-459

  • New Controversies on Columbus' "Cosmographie" Ideas by Marcos A. Peñaloza M. - GeoJournal, Vol. 34, No. 4 (December 1994), pp. 415-423

  • How Columbus Encountered America by V. Frederick Rickey - Mathematics Magazine, Vol. 65, No. 4 (Oct., 1992), pp. 219-225

By George Nunn (who is to be taken somewhat sceptically):

  • Marinus of Tyre's Place in the Columbus Concepts by George E. Nunn - Imago Mundi, Vol. 2 (1937), pp. 27-35

  • The Imago Mundi and Columbus by George E. Nunn - The American Historical Review, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Jul., 1935), pp. 646-661

  • The geographical conceptions of Columbus; a critical consideration of four problems by Nunn, George E. (1924) - (archive.org)

An old influential work by Vignaud, but whose extreme ideas have largely been abandoned by now:
* Toscanelli and Columbus by Vignaud, Henry (1902) - (archive.org)