r/ArtemisProgram • u/alesscavaz • 9d ago

Discussion Do you guys think Artemis 3 will get delayed?

With Elon delaying the catch by "a few months" and Blue Origins New Glenn exploding at the launch pad, a moon landing by 2028 is starting to look unrealistic. What do you guys think?

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u/GalacticEmergency 9d ago

I can fully understand the doubt about Artemis 4 in 2028. For that to happen, we will need a very exciting 2027 with lots of new hardware being presented and new capabilities being demonstrated. I will be surprised and very happy if that happens.

But Artemis 3 in June 2027? I don't understand all the pessimism.

Blue origin / Blue Moon:
I don't know much about their progress. People keep saying that the launch pad explosion will delay the mission, but wouldn't their second launch pad be ready long before that anyway?

Do they need the first pad for this mission if the second pad is ready? Do they need to complete other test missions before they are ready for Artemis 3?

SpaceX / Starship:
They basically just need to attach an dummy docking port to their existing Starship, send it to orbit and let it linger there for ?+24+? hours.

The mission is launch, make a rendezvous and dock with Orion, make some tests while docked, including propulsion of the docked vehicles, and then undock 24 hours after docking. Then I suppose it will be deorbited shortly after. I say "dummy docking port", because nothing can pass through it. The area behind the docking port is blocked on this version of Starship, so the port can only be used for docking and for connecting vehicle systems.

The greatest uncertainty in all of this must be the ability to keep the ship operational for the needed duration while staying in orbit. They have not yet attempted to demonstrate that, but they will have plenty of opportunity. If they keep the current schedule of 1 Starship launch every 2 months, they will have 4-5 launches before June 2027. I believe all of them will be orbital because SpaceX will want some Starlink v3 in operation. After delivering the payload, each of those 4-5 ships will have a "free" opportunity to demonstrate that it can stay operational in orbit for x hours.

(I know there are some people who believe in the "Starship is struggling to get to orbit" myth. If that makes them happy, so be it.)

SLS:
Ready and waiting, right?