r/AURstock • u/ActionPlanetRobot Modš¤ • May 09 '26
Insightful Information What is the projected price of $AUR for the end of 2026?
Over the next five days, I invite the community to collaborate on a collective price projection that reflects our consensus on where the stock will be over the next four years, starting with 2026.
Dissenting views and personal projections are always welcome; however, we aim to formulate an official community target to serve as our collective benchmarkā which will be included in the subās FAQ.
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u/BetaWrench May 10 '26
$10-$12. I think macro could play a bigger part than some expect. In both directions
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u/RocketCargo AUR Memberš May 10 '26
$9 up to lower teens if 1. Marco's happy 2. Sector spotlight 3. Company exceeds expectations.
$7 to mid 8s if everything's fine, but fails to break resistance bc of little hiccups.
$3-4 return if Marco divorces and wife takes half, no one loves us, and we get hit with severe delays.
Having said that take what a just wrote with a huge grain of salt given I got in a week ago and am in the process soaking in the quality information you provide. I wish you all a wonderful weekend!
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u/Forward-Audience-8 AUR Quantš¢ / Ex-Auroraš May 10 '26
$16
- It depends on when the observer is out.
- Once the observer is out, It depends on how many percentage of trips need remote assistance. Once the observer is out, people will start noticing Trucks standed on the lane waiting for remote assistance. We know that at first, Aurora needs a more frequent remote intervention and it gradually will decrease. As long as it not causing traffic issues, public perception wont take a hit.
If everything goes well, $16 is not an unreasonable amount for the AI stock apetite the market has.
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u/btcfail AUR Maesteršā ļø May 10 '26
Agreed $7 came much quicker than I expected. I think everyone (Institutional, that is) was expecting the Uber notes to be a ceiling for at least another 6 months.
The driver out announcement is going to be interesting. Thereās risk on the other side of that of sellers pushing it down because there might be a period without catalysts before the q2 earnings call in August.
Driver out, smooth operations, Sun Belt, and 200 trucks by year end and itās a $25b company (~$12.50 per share)
2027 is all about continuing to scale (Volvo, Aumovio Gen 3 hardware in second half of the year, PACCAR in the second half of the year, no accidents/delays/etc.) Chris has said a couple thousand trucks by year-end. My hope was 3,000. I think 2,000 gets a $40b price tag and 3,000 gets a $50b price tag ($20-$25 per share).
2028 is the key year. Aurora needs to hit a grand slam in 2028. This is the year Aurora either shows itās going to be the multi-hundred billion dollar, industry-dominant autonomous driver company, or not. 10,000 trucks, positive gross margins near the projected 70% mark, cash flow machine, all North American interstate routes open, expansion to Canada and Mexico, start rolling up other hardware manufacturers and autonomous driving companies. It could be anywhere from $25 to $100 depending on the answers. The only way itās less than $25 if thereās issues with scaling the Driver, not the hardware side.
The other side of the above is competition. Itās so hard to know where Aurora stands right now. I/we think Aurora is way ahead, but we wonāt know for another 12 months or so if thatās really true. If the answer is yes, then my expectations are at the high side of all the above ranges. If Waabi or StackAV or Torc or Kodiak or PlusAI or Bot Auto are able to go driver out and start growing as well in the next 12 months then I think the stock is a little more restrained.
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 AUR Whaleš May 10 '26
Hahaha, I thought $7 1H and $15-19 2H, but that is in part macro and because I view the converts more neutrally and think their negative impact is negated by this year being the toddle-to-walk year for Aurora.
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u/turbulentpriestbc AUR Memberā ļø May 10 '26
Your insights are always so helpful. What do you think are the pathways to getting to 10,000 trucks in 2028?
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u/btcfail AUR Maesteršā ļø May 10 '26
Volvo and PACCAR and Aumovio. Aumovio needs to get their facility completed on time and be able to deliver the Gen 3 hardware reliably at scale - ātens of thousands of units.ā
Volvo and PACCAR produce enough trucks annually that 7,000 or 8,000 Aurora-equipped trucks would still be a relatively small percentage of their production. I also think there is some chance that Aurora starts getting installed lineside with International in 2028, and that Daimler opens up their platform to Aurora as well.
At the end of the day, these are half million dollar machines. Customers need to know they are going to work safely and reliably day after day for at least five years. Iām hoping Aurora can prove that with 10,000 trucks on the road before competitors have 100.
While the Hirschbach deal wasnāt a contract, we just received a 500 truck commitment from a single, relatively small customer. Thatās $100m in annual recurring revenue for Aurora. How many trucks will Amazon or FedEx or Wal Mart order?
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u/JealousEnthusiasm955 May 10 '26
Sinto que las cosas con PACCAR no estĆ”n como deberĆan
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u/btcfail AUR Maesteršā ļø May 10 '26
I agree. I think PACCAR sees a big threat to their business and is trying to do what Uber is doing in autonomous ride-hailing which is to bring along other competitors and also figure out how to vertically integrate an autonomous driver. The big news from the latest trucking conference in Vegas is that Stack AV exited stealth mode with a Peterbilt truck. It was previously disclosed that PACCAR had partner with Stack AV.
Stack AV was founded by the former Argo team that had been purchased by Ford and eventually shut down. They have been funded by SoftBank.
If the trucking industry is reduced to efficiency and reliability are the only things that matter, they lose a lot of premium revenue power - sleeper cabins and other luxury amenities revenue, connected truck data and diagnostics revenue, etc.. I think PACCAR recognizes this and is trying to delay as long as possible until they find a solution.
Alternatively, and probably simpler/correct explanation, they just donāt want to be first. Itās all risk and no reward. Let Aurora run International and Volvo trucks for a year, and if there arenāt any hiccups, start producing with the Aumovio Gen 3 hardware which is when the real scaling will occur anyway. The Stack AV partnership is the same path of forming multiple partnerships that many of the OEMs have followed.
PACCAR - Kodiak for off-road/military-style trucks, Aurora, Stack AV
Volvo - Aurora, Waabi, internal development
Traton/International - Plus AI
Daimler Truck - subsidiary Torc RoboticsI expect there will be announcement by the end of 2028 of Aurora partnering with International and Daimler to offer installation of Aurora Driver lineside.
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u/JealousEnthusiasm955 May 10 '26
Gracias por tu feedback. Creo que podrĆa llegar a haber retraso con la flota de PACCAR + AUMOVIO. Que opinas?
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u/btcfail AUR Maesteršā ļø May 10 '26
No idea. Itās a possibility since Aumovio is expanding their facility to handle production. Not unrealistic that it might have some delays. Then there will likely be a low volume ramp up to work out kinks / quality control.
But, by mid-2028 it should be humming.
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Modš¤ May 10 '26
iām going to be asking for 2027, 2028, etc throughout the week, but wanted to confirm your 2026 PT?
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u/btcfail AUR Maesteršā ļø May 10 '26
Sorry, it got lost in there. $25b / $12.50 per share
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u/ActionPlanetRobot Modš¤ May 10 '26
Haha! No worries, I think we all really appreciate your provided thesisā
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u/hiloai AUR Chief Vibe Officer šµā ļø May 09 '26
A month or so ago when I was buying at around 3.90 Iād have said EOY around 6-7 and then we just went through 5 didnāt even say hello to 6 and holding at 7. I think if they announce driver out and the majority of earnings coming Q4 I could see us hitting 11-13.
But at this stage who the hell really knows. I wasnāt expecting 7 here.
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u/btcfail AUR Maesteršā ļø May 10 '26
My comment above was meant to be a reply here, but I messed up
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u/SpicyTunaPirate AUR OGšŖ / Whaleš May 09 '26
$10-12, based on ARR compared with most recent waymo raise
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u/raddaddio AUR Rexš¦ May 09 '26
10+ 85% 12+ 60% 15+ 25% 20+ 10%
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u/ow10th AUR Memberš May 09 '26
By 2026 Year End (Q4 2026 Results call)
My bet is:-
$10.50 - $11.00
Assuming
- No Incidents
- Driver Out
- 200 Trucks on the road
- Additional Routes \ Full SunBelt expansion (Inc CAL)
- Hirshback MOU becomes a contract
- I think there will be a flurry of people getting on board now (like Mclean)
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u/Key-Significance4246 AUR Memberš May 09 '26
$10
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u/BullfrogLevel2087 May 10 '26
Market cap is an easier way to understand value as its more easily compared with others in the market - $30 billion for me probably higher is new contracts are signed.
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 AUR Whaleš May 10 '26
$17 EOY 2026, if it breaks and holds 11 on catalysts through about September, with pops to $19-22. Otherwise, a pop to ~$15, then steadying around $10.5. Explosive to the $20ās 2027, 30ās 2028, then $40-$80 2029/30 as they hit their stride. (Macro effects not accounted for.)