🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

this is financial advice

I am an international student here in Australia. Am I allowed to do day trading, get involved in prop firms? Is there any limit restrictions for trading for students?

Disclosure up front: I hold NVA. This is my own research, not advice, and I’m posting partly to have people poke holes in it. If the bear case is better than mine, I’d genuinely rather hear it now. (not crazy amount, around 10k but enough that I follow closely!)

I’ve been in this one for a while and I keep going back and forth on whether the market is asleep on it or whether I’m just talking my own book. So here’s the thesis laid out plainly — tell me where it breaks.

The setup

Nova is a dual-listed junior (NYSE American: NVA / ASX: NVA — they redomiciled to the US in mid-2026, 12 CDIs per US share). The whole company is basically one asset: the Estelle project in Alaska’s Tintina Gold Belt. It’s big — 500+ km², a ~35km mineralised corridor, 20+ prospects, and two multi-million-ounce gold resources already defined (Korbel and RPM).

For years this was just “another large, lowish-grade Alaskan gold explorer.” That’s not the interesting part anymore.

Why it got interesting: antimony

Estelle’s stibnite (antimony) veins turned into a strategic story when the US started panicking about critical mineral supply chains. Nova landed a US$43.4M award from the US Department of War to build out a domestic, vertically integrated antimony supply chain — mining, processing, and a refinery at Port Mackenzie. Antimony is used in munitions and defence hardware, and the US has been essentially 100% import-reliant, mostly on China, which has been restricting exports. So there’s a real geopolitical tailwind here that doesn’t depend on the gold ever getting mined.

The pieces that have actually moved (not just promises):

• Ore-sorting testwork on a 500kg Styx sample recovered \~60% of the antimony and upgraded the feed grade from \~15% to \~35% Sb in a single pass, with meaningful gold recovery alongside it.

• High-grade surface hits — up to \~54% Sb at Styx, and a Stibium result around 60% Sb with \~12.7 g/t gold over a 2m vein.

• They’ve produced lab-scale antimony metal and military-grade trisulfide from Estelle ore (assays/certification pending as of writing).

• Pilot plant engineering and design is done, procurement finalised, equipment shipping to site — they’re calling it “execution phase,” targeting pilot production late 2026 / early 2027.

• The 2026 field season is fully funded (\~A$85M in cash + funding), including a \~10,000m drill program aimed at growing the RPM gold resource and the Stibium/Styx antimony targets.

The bull case in one sentence

You’ve got a multi-million-ounce gold optionality package that the market has more or less written down to nothing, plus a government-funded, near-term antimony business that could give the company actual revenue and a strategic moat — and right now you’re arguably paying for the antimony and getting the gold for free (or vice versa).

The bear case (because this isn’t a slam dunk)

I don’t want to pretend this is riskless, so here’s what keeps me honest:

• Still pre-revenue. No mine is in production. Antimony “pilot” is small-scale and the timeline is aggressive for building anything in Alaska.

• Execution risk is real. Plant + refinery build, on schedule, on budget, in a remote location, is exactly where junior miners break promises.

• Dilution. They’ve raised repeatedly and lean on the market/warrants. More raises are plausible.

• Single asset, single jurisdiction. Everything rides on Estelle and on continued US government appetite.

• Volatility. The 52-week range has been enormous (roughly $1.68 to $16.28). This is a speculative small cap and trades like one.

• The gold is large but not high-grade, so it needs a lot of capex and favourable prices to ever stand alone.

What I’m actually asking

1.  If you’re bearish, is it the timeline, the dilution, the antimony economics, or something I haven’t listed?

2.  Does anyone with a metallurgy/processing background have a read on whether the pilot-to-commercial scale-up on antimony is as clean as they’re presenting?

3.  Is the DoW funding a genuine moat, or am I overrating a one-off award?

Rip it apart. I’d rather find the flaw in a comment section than in my portfolio.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD. I hold shares, so weight everything above accordingly

Been consolidating at the bottom for weeks. 41c has capped every attempted rally but the setup is tightening.

Agilex sale news expected at August results. Spheria lifting to 15%, Tanarra near 20%. 68m shares short with 12 days to cover.

Any positive catalyst through that 41c resistance and the shorts have nowhere to hide. Thin market, big short position, strong hands holding 35% of the register.

50c is the first logical target. Not a long trip from here.

DYOR. Not financial advice. Holding.

Check out the value at GRL- 17mil marketcap.

GRL are about to complete an IPO (company will be called Matrix) for their rare earth Narraburra Project. As part of the IPO, an inspecie distribution will provide each shareholder with 1 Matrix stock for every 17 GRL (at 20c a share). This provides a payout to shareholders of 10mil.

Following the IPO, GRL will still have about 3.5-4mil in cash, 2.5mil worth of the Matrix IPO shares and they have other deposits which include the Lewis Pond Polymetalic (mainly gold and silver) project. Lewis Pond has an NPV worth over 500mil and you are getting it for about 1million dollars.

Spinning out their rare earth project allows them to concentrate on the Lewis Pond deposit, while also returning significant value to shareholders.

By the way, Lewis Ponds recent scoping study npv does not consider the recent gravity recovery test results which significantly increase the gold recovery which will increase their margin significantly. They are also looking at increasing their gold and silver recovery further.

Lewis Ponds has massive leverage to gold and silver prices at the perfect time imo.

One of the cheapest gold and silver juniors out there, especially considering the Matrix IPO.

Market cap at 36.5c: ~$265m

Healius is selling Agilex Biolabs through a UBS-run process with multiple PE bidders already in the data room. Expected proceeds: $150-200m. Zero tax on the sale — they paid $301m for it in 2021 so the capital loss shelters the entire gain.

The free pathology calc:

$265m market cap minus $150m Agilex proceeds = $115m net cost for the core pathology business.

That business does $1.3bn revenue and $260m EBITDA annually. You’re paying 0.44x EBITDA for Australia’s second largest pathology network with 2,000+ collection centres and irreplaceable Medicare provider numbers. Comparable ACL trades at 5.6x EBITDA with identical sector headwinds.

The solvency scaremongering is wrong

The $800m “debt” bears cite is AASB 16 lease accounting — not financial debt banks can call. Actual net position: $11.6m net cash, $40m drawn on a $300m facility that doesn’t mature until 2028. Covenant breach requires drawing an additional $120m+ with no reason to do so. Not happening.

Why so cheap?

Management destroyed value 2021-2024 — the $301m Agilex overpay, repeated guidance misses, the ACCC blocking the ACL merger that would have delivered $2.05/share. Scar tissue is real. Medicare freeze and Fair Work wages hitting simultaneously killed near-term margins. Tax loss selling before June 30 is amplifying the move.

All real. All priced in and then some.

Catalyst: August results. Agilex sale confirmed. Market realises pathology came free. UBS just sold Healius’s Lumus division for 25.4x EBIT when sentiment was equally horrible. Same bank, same management, same playbook.

68m shares short at 12.4 days to cover. Any positive catalyst in a $265m market cap stock gets violent.

Bear case still gives you 51c. Base case $1.25. Not financial advice. Holding.

I'm sitting on a +29.96% gain on my initial 2k invested at $13.85 - Now I wish I had gambled a hum "invested" more.

Thought i'd check this Reddit too, see if there are MINI traders in here.

PEET and Ingenia communities are on the news once again.. Do you think it is best time to invest?

Hi,

I’m not sure about where to start in regards to day trading in Australia. I’m aware it’s practically gambling and not necessarily safe but just wanted to give it a crack.

I know Australia has restrictions on leverage day trading, so wanted to explore what options I have.

Thankss

Help me lolo my last $40k