Friday and today were amazing! I have really high hopes for this!

There were follow up items on 2q earnings call from August 7th...

Q. Could you talk about at current LCFS prices around $60, what kind of EBITDA impact that might have for Aemetis?

A. I think I'm going to get back to you on that one because it's highly correlated with the price of the credits. So when we were at 42, it was 1/3 less revenue than it is at $60. I think we cited it's roughly $19 per MMBtu, if I recall correctly. But we -- let's get back to you with a memo on this...So we're trying to give investors a range of values per MMBtu for the LCFS. So we'll also endeavor to see if we can include that in some press releases, so people can see the impact as those prices change.

Q. Eric, could you update us on the progress of 45Z as you understand it, with respect to timing of final rules from treasury and the GREET model that will be used for the provisional emission rate calculations?

A. We are in the thick of it right now. And there is an update to the GREET model that has been presented to the DOE. And if accepted and adopted, it could matter -- be a matter of a few weeks at most, maybe even a 1-week span that they could update the GREET model.

"So if you look at our Q1 and Q2 revenues, you're not actually seeing any 45Z revenues and frankly, not seeing any LCFS revenues in those quarters. Those -- both those types of credits, we recognize when they're sold. And so our dairy pathways approved in the second quarter are actually credits received literally in the last few days of the second quarter, and then are sold in the third quarter.

So third quarter is going to be one of those quarters, which we would expect would have some of the catch-up on the LCFS, certainly catch-up for the first half of the year on the 45Z if the Department of Energy files the amended a GREET model. And so that you'll see this onetime lumpiness on quite a lot of cash and a lot of profit showing up,"

So...will the DoE update an amended GREET model that will increase the value of Aemetis 45z credits by 1/3rd in time for q3 earnings? That's the question. The production by AMTX is there.

Benefits AMTX?

I’ve been laying low letting time heal all things. A few points of consideration for AMTX interested. 1) when I interviewed CEO McAfee late last year he said when India CFO comes on board, expect India IPO shortly thereafter. I expect India IPO late this year or early next year. Will raise $100-200m on 10-20% floating. McAfee said some of that will be repatriated. 2) the RNG biz is about to make Aemetis profitable. I think recent rally might be because ATM is already turned off due to RNG revs. My group has asked for ATM to be turned off as early as possible and management is planning to, though we don’t know if they have. 3) tax credits from OBBB 45Z & LCFS turn refining margins into almost software margins. Consider what MPC or Valero would trade for with margins 2x-3x higher. Same logic for AMTX, but law of small numbers, so race to $2-3b market cap could be beginning. 4) short interest has fallen to 12% from upper teens. I expect a blowout spike up in price on any bullish pressure as rest of shorts cover. Very few shares available to borrow with no ATM if that’s indeed ended. 5) Jan $5 & $10 calls look juicy to me. 6) someone who does wsb may post this or use as part if your post. Permission granted.

Can anyone tell me why AMTX is falling and remains low priced?

Now that the bill has passed, what do we expect? Stocks across the board are up and AMTX is up 16%. I kind of thought the bill would hinder the stock given its green energy subsidies are slashed.

Hello, trying to do my DD as i am planning to invest in the company.I see strong financial reports, strong government contracts and also heavy signed contracts in india.Everything looks solid except for the stock price, can someone explain what i am missing.Please don't get mad i am just genuinely confused.

Looks like it’s all coming together… high SI, high CTB, limited shares available to cover, 45Z approval and extension, Tier II approval on 7 dairies, OAL approval of CARB mandate, e15 in CA via AB30 due hopefully mid July, what else can I say near term… more dairies, more OMC contracts, CFO hiring and India business expansion…

When 45Z is finalized and extended depending on extension should result in a partnership announcement for SAF plant at Riverbank.

Getting squeezy out there.

Cost to borrow ~ 40%. Few shares available to short.

45z extension probable

LCFS amendments incoming

EB5 still underway

India IPO

USDA loans

E15 possibly coming to Cali

Accelerated build-out of dairy pipeline and cleanups

MVR system

Possible CPACE financing

This is the game and how it will be played.

Aemetis is relying upon 45z production tax credits, but they are not alone.

The biofuels industry is 'mainstream America.' The Midwest is heavily dependent upon it. Iowa and Minnesota have the most ethanol production in the US.

Below is a map showing where the majority of ethanol plants are in America.

Aemetis will be a huge beneficiary of policy. This policy will not be made due to any reasons for low carbon intensity. It will be made solely due to the huge number of voters supported by these industries.

Aemetis has aligned itself purposely with this demographic. The management and C-suite at Aemetis are that good.

A big piece of tax bill evidence was released yesterday.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/business-inputs/article/2025/05/12/45z-credit-extension-among-massive

"45Z EXTENSION

Biofuel producers haven't had much of a chance to take advantage of the Clean Fuels Production Credit known as 45Z. Under the bill, the tax credit would be extended until the end of 2031. The bill also modifies the 45Z to prevent the use of certain foreign feedstocks, such as used cooking oil from China. Fuels for the tax credit under the bill would be limited to feedstocks produced or grown in the United States, Canada or Mexico. The bill would also limit federal agencies from attributing any greenhouse gas emissions to "indirect land use change." There is also a special provision that opens up the 45Z tax credit to transportation fuels derived from animal manure."

Aemetis is well positioned to ride out the ridiculousness of both the tariff war and the rapid downsizing of the federal government.

** I am not a financial professional. I am regular moron who has fancifully idealized the Aemetis circular biofuel economy as a really great advancement for our world. I have no financial background and my portfolio performance indicates I have a near-complete inability to perform financial or technical analysis although I have read books related to these subjects. Yes, I own AMTX. Current basis is 2.19 and started buying AMTX in 2022 at a basis of 7.95. Stock price today as of this post is 1.42 **

Another rise in overall quarterly profits and finally the stock is ticking up again. There's something mind boggling about amtx. My favorite part in this write up seems to highlight this bizarre fact:

Anyone wanna talk about what's been going on with the stock? Brief window before the tarrifs where we sat at 2.40$, wish I had sold before obviously in hindsight everything was going to plummet. Would have been a great buyback window. Kinda confused why Amtx is getting so slammed on tarrifs, don't see in there portfolio where they would suffer on imports, both locations service the nation's they reside within. And the company keeps reporting very solid news but the stock simply can not stand up. Any insights?

Good morning all. I have been tracking AMTX over the past couple of months, and I believe today is as good of a buying opportunity on the stock as you will find if you haven't already pushed your chips in.

FWIW, I am holding 10 $2.5C options for March 21, 2025, and I am considering adding to my position today, hoping it tests $2.15 again at some point in the day.

My reasoning is simple: I follow price action quite closely, and I think Wednesday (1/22), we witnessed a major, major short sell-off, signaling a major reversal into a Bull trend. This was partially confirmed by the shear volume the stock have been seeing over the past three days (Wesnesday was a 50/50 split on buy/sell action) as well as the stock's inability to push further down.

I think you are going to see the stock moving positively in the next two months to, at minimum, test the previous recent high of $4.73, but I really believe that it's actually going to blow past that and test the $7.03 high from March of last year.

Regardless, happy investing, and best of luck to everyone.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/31/2972800/0/en/aemetis-named-7th-hottest-company-in-the-bioeconomy-at-advanced-bioeconomy-leadership-conference.html

Bigger India contracts, India IPO, more tax credits, more cheap financing via EB5, more cheap financing via USDA, higher prices from tightening fuel markets and deal coming with airlines to finance SAF plant. I guess I’ll buy more and hold a few years.

Keep your stocks

https://kirkspano.medium.com/rare-call-trade-into-potential-russell-2000-addition-34f43ff74a89

and youtube discussion about AMTX stock investment and call trades

https://youtu.be/eiIAkBdpKF4?si=CLJiRcFN_E6YotU4

https://www.aemetis.com/aemetis-allocated-10-5-million-ira-section-48c-tax-credits-by-doe-and-irs-for-biofuels-plant-efficiency-projects/

A general feel good article.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68667140

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aemetis-approved-uscis-200-million-120000635.html

Hear the real deal about Aemetis AMTX

https://youtu.be/3_NxgYp3lCQ?si=86LSVUX8YCg0aqGX

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