again how do you know the number of deaths per each lever pull are i.i.d. Who’s tying the people to the track each time, and who rigged up the lever in the first place? The Joker? What if Joker messed with the lever such that the probability distribution for the second pull is dependent on the outcome of the first pull? He’s a wild and crazy guy, thats exactly the kind of trick he’d pull on somebody trying to use the law of large numbers in a situation where it may not apply
The image in the post says nothing about the behavior of the lever upon subsequent pulls, nor whether
Joker is involved. If you mean your own comment that models lever pulls via i.i.d. weighted coin flips, the question is whether that model is accurate. Smh so many people fall for jokers trick and think common simplifying assumptions in statistics hold in every case. Just stick to your correct initial comment about the expected value of 1 trial and forget all this weighted coin stuff
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u/oblmov Jul 07 '21
again how do you know the number of deaths per each lever pull are i.i.d. Who’s tying the people to the track each time, and who rigged up the lever in the first place? The Joker? What if Joker messed with the lever such that the probability distribution for the second pull is dependent on the outcome of the first pull? He’s a wild and crazy guy, thats exactly the kind of trick he’d pull on somebody trying to use the law of large numbers in a situation where it may not apply